I don’t know much about the model used in this, but it’s interesting:
“Like any election, there are a vast number of different possibilities that can happen. Here, you can explore a variety of them. You can simulate a range of popular vote possibilities for each of the two parties. This slide is the Democratic Party edition. It would theoretically require a D+4 popular vote to flip at least one seat (6 would flip), which may be difficult to do.”
“Interesting model. Projects GOP needing a +4 popular vote to get a 51-49 majority this year in Virginia House of Delegates. Not impossible and close to what happened in 2021. But seems like different environment now. Dem +4 popular vote would be 57-43 majority.”
So here are some possible outcomes according to the model. Seems reasonable, given Trump’s currently very low approval ratings in Virginia – and the possibility that they could fall even further by fall, given likely higher inflation and unemployment by then – that it could be a D+3 or even D+5 environment. That could mean gains for Dems in the House of Delegates, where all 100 seats will be on the ballot in Novemeber. Of course, candidate quality and campaigns will matter as well, plus of course whether Republicans restrict voting rights or whatever. But in a free-and-fair election with the president’s approval rating in the 30%s, it seems quite likely that Democrats could pick up several seats in the House of Delegates this November, adding to the narrow 51-49 majority they hold now…
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