Sam Shirazi Interviews Chaz Nuttycombe, Who Flat-Out Predicts, “the Virginia governor race is not going to be competitive this year” – and That Dems Could Get to 71/100 House of Delegates Seats

Sam Shirazi’s latest podcast, this time with Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate, is very  interesting and entertaining, largely because Chaz doesn’t pull any punches, really cuts loose on how he feels about the upcoming 2025 Virginia elections. So definitely check it out and see what you agree or disagree with! For my part, here’s what jumped out, along with my reactions (in parentheses/green/italics).

• “We are going to be launching our forecast for Virginia 2025 with the House of Delegates and Governor and Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General at our June 29th fundraiser in Montpelier, Virginia.”  (Definitely worth checking out, especially since it will be post-primaries and much closer to the November elections than we are now…so hopefully we’ll know a lot more about where the economy’s heading, get some public polling on the races and on Trump’s approval/disapproval, etc.)
• “…ever since Virginia has been a two-party state and, you know, black voters have, have truly had the right to vote, in Virginia, we have elected the party opposite of the White House. This is a tradition that’s gone on for, what, 50 years now or just over 50, right?” (Correct, except for 2013, when Barack Obama was in the White House but Democrats swept – by small margins – the governor/LG/AG races.)
• “…the night of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, that was the final test and straw for me to be comfortable in saying that the Virginia governor race is not going to be competitive this year. We can maybe quibble about margin, which margin is important because, Spanberger winning by as much as Harris won by, or maybe even a little bit less on a good night for the GOP, versus Spanberger winning by double digits very much makes a difference. And, what the House [of Delegates] looks like and and whether, you know, Miyares wins and whether Republicans can retain the lieutenant governor office.” (I largely agree, with the standard disclaimer I always include at this point that we actually have free-and-fair elections. Also, I mean, this is HIGHLY unlikely, but if the economy were booming and Trump’s approval rating doing great in Virginia by the fall, then Republicans would be in much better shape. But again, that’s HIGHLY unlikely to be the case; more likely, we’ll be having MAJOR economic problems and Trump’s approval ratings will be in the 30%s or low 40%s in Virginia by then…)
• “…there has to be like some big scandal or oppo dump in like early September for Abigail Spanberger to not be the next governor of Virginia. Point blank period.” (Yep, pretty much. But let’s not get overconfident or take ANYTHING for granted at this point. Let’s also try to run up the score as much as possible – to pick up as many House of Delegates seats as possible, to win the LG and AG races, and to send a RESOUNDING message across the country regarding what Virginia thinks about Trump, DOGE, etc.)
• “I think also…that Winsome Sears has a laughable campaign… The fact that they fired Poolhouse, which you know was the architect for branding of the Youngkin campaign, is, is insane… Sears is just, she’s got two left feet and is trying to dance. and it’s…a sight to behold. And I think that’s something that’s really hurting her…we will see if Sears keeps stepping on her toes or whether she does some public speaking coaches or classes or whatever, because I think she has a public speaking issue.” (Harsh, but it’s hard to argue with any of this. Just on pure candidate quality, Spanberger is super-strong and Sears is super-weak, albeit perhaps not as weak as Amanda Chase or Dave LaRock would have been. But still…yeah, the 2025 Winsome Sears campaign is looking like a massive notch below the 2021 Glenn Youngkin campaign, while the 2025 Abigail Spanberger campaign is likely to be a notch or two above the 2021 Terry McAuliffe campaign.)
• “I think that the the ceiling for the Democrats [pickup in the House of Delegates] could be 20 seats…, if there’s a recession, yeah, this this could be, like a 2009 situation [which was a Republican landslide]…., no hard forecast, just like in terms of where I think things are, it could be anywhere from R plus two in the House [of Delegates] to, you know, Democrats getting to 71 [House of Delegates seats].” (I mean, a Democratic pickup of 20 seats in the House of Delegates might seem outlandish at first blush, but IF Spanberger wins by 15 points or whatever; IF Democrats have strong (or at least credible) candidates in all the competitive or potentially competitive districts; and IF Trump’s approval rating is down the toilet bowl, then…sure, who knows, I could certainly see Democrats getting from 51 now to 60 or more House of Delegates seats. Something to shot for, anyway, and it certainly would be incredible if this actually happened. No wonder why House GOP Leader Todd Gilbert is looking for the exits! LOL)

So what jumped out at you?  You can weigh in, if you want, in the comments section, or on social media!