New VA11 Democratic Poll, “From Super PAC Supporting James Walkinshaw,” Finds Walkinshaw Ahead 52%-11%-11% After “Balanced Positive Profiles” Read

With just 17 days until VA11 Democrats select their nominee to replace the late, great Rep. Gerry Connolly, we’ve got a poll  (reported first in Punchbowl News). See below for the results, both before and after “balanced positive profiles reflecting current messaging from the candidates” were read to likely voters. First, though, a couple caveats to keep in mind: 1) this poll is by a “super PAC supporting James Walkinshaw” (it’s a respected pollster, though – Lake Research); 2) this is a “firehouse primary” (see here for details) so it’s tough to model turnout.

Other than that, though, the results aren’t necessarily surprising – a very large lead (41%-8%-6% before descriptions were read; 52%-11%-11% AFTER “balanced positive profiles reflecting current messaging from the candidates”) for Rep. Gerry Connolly’s former/long-time Chief of Staff James Walkinshaw, who was endorsed by Connolly before he died, and is strongly supported by many Connolly supporters, allies, etc. Also interesting – and not surprising – that the two strongest challengers to Walkinshaw are State Sen. Stella Pekarsky and Del. Irene Shin, who are at 8% and 6% before descriptions, 11% each after descriptions…

Also, note that most of these candidates presumably don’t have much (if any) name recognition in VA11 as a whole, so it’s not at all surprising that the “new” candidates (who haven’t held elective office before or been heavily involved in Fairfax County politics) would be in the low single digits, while Pekarsky and Shin would be somewhat higher, given that they represent portions of the district. The challenge for those non-elected candidates, of course, is that there’s VERY little time for them to get their names and messages out there, given that the “fireouse primary” is being held on June 28. Plus, without “Ranked Choice Voting,” it seems very likely that, to the extent there’s a segment of the VA11 Democratic electorate that isn’t supporting Walkinshaw, they could very well split among the (many) other candidates (particularly State Sen. Stella Pekarsky and Del. Irene Shin, but also Leo Martinez, Amy Roma, Candice Bennett, Dan Lee, Amy Papanu, Joshua Aisen or whoever else qualifies for the ballot).

Anyway, stay tuned, but it’s interesting to have a poll of this race – and hopefully we’ll get other ones as well.