VA Senate Dems Tweak VA02 to Make It Bluer (“Likely” or “Safe” Democratic); Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) Would Almost Certainly Lose in November with This Map

See below for some big news this morning – as Chaz Nuttycombe explains:

“The Senate Finance Committee has tweaked the VA Congressional Map proposal to make VA-2 bluer. We’re working on updating our interactive with the new shapefile. Until then, quick stat changes: 2024 Prez: Harris +1.2 –> Harris +4.8 2024 US House: R+1.9 –> D+2.1 VA-2 now Safe D”

Also, see here and below from Sam Shirazi:

“Practical effect is that VA-2 would go from Lean Dem to Likely Dem if this version is adopted Could also potentially withstand 2030 midterm if there is Dem President Oddest choice in original map was VA-2 not changing much This does enough tinkering to make it more blue”

• And from former VPAP director David Poole: “L. Louise Lucas and her Senate Finance Committee responded Tuesday with a tweak that renders [VA02] a few clicks bluer…Spanberger would have won 56.3% of the vote in the amended [VA02], compared to 54.5% in the original redraw. Those added Dem votes would come out [of] Bobby Scott’s ultra-safe perch in [VA03].”

• Amendments to HB29 – here’s the new VA02

• Three points on Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02)’s Facebook post (see below): 1) Kiggans is toast, and she knows it; 2) always do the opposite of anything Kiggans says; 3) it should be “Democrats” with a capital D, although they’re also small-d “democrats” (unlike Kiggans, Trump, etc.)

• From Dave’s Redistricting App