by Sam Shirazi
Tomorrow, Virginia Democrats will pick their nominees for Lt. Governor and Attorney General. Plus there are a number of House of Delegates primaries, including some in important battleground districts. I’ve laid out paths to victory for the various candidates in the statewide races, and made educated guesses about who may end up on top.
Predicting primaries is inherently difficult, and this year it is especially challenging with no public polling [Lowell’s note: for “internal” polls done by candidates’ campaigns back in March, see here for Levar Stoney’s, here for Ghazala Hashmi’s, and here for Shannon Taylor’s). As a result, take these predictions with a grain of salt. The lack of public polling is also why I included a hedge, laying out two scenarios, depending who shows up on Election Day.
Lt. Governor
Six Democrats – State Senators Aaron Rouse and Ghazala Hashmi; former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney; Prince William County School Board Chair Babur Lateef; former Dept. of Justice prosecutor Victor Salgado; union leader and attorney Alex Bastani – are running for Lt. Governor, and there has not been a clear frontrunner who has emerged. It is likely the winner will get less than 50%, and perhaps something similar to the 37% that Hala Ayala got winning the 2021 Democratic Lt. Governor primary. It is hard to know who will be favored, but four candidates theoretically have paths to victory.
State Senator Aaron Rouse can count on support in Hampton Roads and the African-American community. The endorsement of Rep. Bobby Scott was important for Rouse, but his support in Northern Virginia remains the biggest question mark.
State Senator Ghazala Hashmi can count on support in the Richmond suburbs which she represents. Her path to victory depends on suburban voters in Northern Virginia, especially women.
Former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney is hoping for a strong showing in the city that he used to lead. Rep. Bobby Scott endorsing Rouse may cost Stoney some support in the African-American community, but he will try and make that up in Northern Virginia given his endorsement from former Governor Terry McAuliffe.
Prince William County School Board Chair Babur Lateef is betting it all on a big showing in Northern Virginia. He has come out against a casino in Fairfax, and is hoping to get the margins he needs in Virginia’s biggest county to cross the finish line. He has done relatively well in straw polls in the region, although it’s hard to know how predicative they are, and there has ben no scientific polling to back them up.
Former DOJ Prosecutor Victor Salgado will look for support in the Hispanic community, but it’s hard for him to get the numbers he needs to end up on top. Former union official Alex Bastani is the most ideologically progressive candidate, but again seems unlikely to get numbers he needs overall.
It is going to be very difficult to predict who will end up on top in such a fractured field. Rouse probably has the highest floor and is likely to get a decent number of votes just based on Hampton Roads. Hashmi has the most room to grow, especially if she connects with suburban voters and women (Lowell’s note: the LG field has five men and one woman running, and women have generally tended to do well in Virginia Democratic primaries the past few years; plus the majority of the electorate will almost certainly be female, so we’ll see…). Stoney and Lateef are in the mix if they can break through in Northern Virginia.
Looking at early voting numbers, African-American turnout has been relatively strong, while outer Northern Virginia in Prince William County and Loudoun has lagged. A lot depends on what happens on Election Day and who gets out more of their base.
If there is more of a surge in Hampton Roads, Rouse has the easiest path to victory. He will need big margins in Hampton Roads and with African-American voters, and then have a decent showing in Northern Virginia.
But if there is a turnout surge in Northern Virginia, that creates an opening for one of the other candidates. Hashmi is most likely to benefit under this scenario, given likely support from women. In the end, I went with bit of a split prediction given the unpredictable nature of this primary.
Hampton Roads surge scenario: Tilt Rouse
Northern Virginia surge scenario: Tilt Hashmi
Attorney General
The Attorney General primary is much less complicated, with a one-on-one match up between former Delegate Jay Jones and Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor. Although this race has a similar dynamic between Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia as the Lt. Governor’s primary does.
Jones has the endorsement of three Democratic members of Congress from Virginia – Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03), Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10), and Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07) – as well as the two previous Democratic Governors, Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe. He can expect strong support in Hampton Roads and with the African-American community.
Taylor has the backing of the previous Democratic Attorney General, Mark Herring, and former House of Delegates Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn. She should get a boost in the Richmond suburbs, where she is from, but would need to breakthrough in Northern Virginia, especially with women.
After Clean Virginia backed Jones early in the primary, Dominion Energy decided to give large, last-minute donations to Taylor. This race is shaping up to be a classic “CV vs. DE” battle, with Dominion Energy giving Taylor $800,000 directly during the course of primary and Clean Virginia giving Jones $575,000 directly, along with running their own ads on his behalf. The late help has allowed Taylor to go on air in Northern Virginia to try and run up her margins there.
Overall, Jones has the easier path to victory if he wins Hampton Roads, African-American voters, and keeps Northern Virginia close. But if Taylor is able to make a breakthrough in Northern Virginia, she might be able to pull it out.
Hampton Roads surge scenario: Lean Jones
Northern Virginia surge scenario: Tilt Jones
House of Delegates
I won’t do a writeup on each race, but I have an episode of my podcast, Federal Fallout, where I went over each race for anyone interested Here are the bottomline predictions:
Democratic House of Delegates Primaries:
HD-1: Very Likely Hope
HD-40: Tilt Littlepage
HD-49: Tilt Miller
HD-57: Likely Nivar
HD-72: Tilt Critzer
HD-73: Likely Mehta
HD-75: Lean Dougherty
HD-81: Very Likely McQuinn
HD-89: Likely Carnegie
Republican House of Delegates Primaries:
HD-21: Tilt Gorham
HD-37: Likely Austin
HD-46: Lean Tolbert
HD-49: Likely Whittle
HD-62: Lean Hamilton
HD-70: Lean Scaturico
HD-89: Likely Lamonea
HD-97: Likely Anderson
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