Today is primary election day in Virginia; polls are open from 6 am to 7 pm, and you can vote at your regular polling location. In addition to Democratic primaries for Lt. Governor (State Senators Aaron Rouse and Ghazala Hashmi; former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney; Prince William County School Board Chair Babur Lateef; former Dept. of Justice prosecutor Victor Salgado; union leader and attorney Alex Bastani) and Attorney General (Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor vs. former Del. Jay Jones), there are also primaries for a few House of Delegates seats and some local offices (e.g., Arlington County Board – go Takis Karantonis!) as well. For some thoughts by Sam Shirazi, see here. In addition to how many voters turn out today – or fail to turn out, lol – what I’ll be watching most closely today includes the following:
- Lt. Governor: The conventional wisdom, without any public polling to go on, is that this race is between Rouse, Hashmi and Stoney, but that it could be VERY close…with a strong possibility that the race will be tight enough that it won’t be called for several hours tonight. Also, almost certainly, given the number of candidates and the lack of Ranked Choice Voting (don’t get me started – obviously we should be using that in multi-candidate races!), it’s impossible to imagine any candidate getting 50%+ of the vote. More likely, the winner will be in the low-to-mid 30%s?
- Attorney General: There’s been no public polling in this primary either. The conventional wisdom for much of the campaign was that Jay Jones was the frontrunner, but in recent weeks, that seems to have shifted, and now it’s quite possibly a tossup…or maybe slight lean to Jones, but who knows.
- HD1: Long-time incumbent Del. Patrick Hope (D) faces two challengers (Sean Epstein and Arjoon Srikanth) in this deep-blue north Arlington district. In part because Hope faces more than one opponent, in part because he’s a popular incumbent, Hope is likely to win big tonight – the question being what his margin ends up being.
- HD57: This western Henrico seat is one of the top targets for House Democrats to flip this November, given that it went by over 9 points to Kamala Harris last November and has been trending blue in general. The two Democrats running for the nomination are May Nivar and Andrew Schear, with Nivar holding a massive lead in cash-on-hand, endorsements, etc, etc.
- HD73: This Western Chesterfield district is potentially winnable for Democrats in November (both Harris and Kaine won it very narrowly last November), although it will be tougher than HD57. The two Democrats vying for the nomination are Leslie Mehta and Justin Woodford, with Mehta holding a signficant lead in cash-on-hand, endorsements, etc.
- HD75: This Chesterfield/Hopewell seat is held by Republican incumbent Del. Carrie Coyner, but it went by 6 points for Harris and by 9 points for Kaine last November, so it’s a strong target for Dems to flip in November. The three Democrats competing to take on Coyner are Lindsey Dougherty, Stephen Miller-Pitts and Dustin Wade, with the top two in terms of fundraising being Dougherty and Wade. We’ll see how it goes…
- HD89: This Chesapeake/Suffolk seat – won by both Harris and Kaine by a few points last November – is an open seat, as incumbent Del. Baxter Ennis (R) is not running for reelection. On the Democratic side, the candidates are Blaizen Buckshot Bloom and Karen Carnegie, with Carnegie far ahead in terms of money and endorsements.
- The Arlington County Board race between Board member Takis Karantonis and Democratic challenger James DeVita. I’m thinking Karantonis – who I strongly support – wins this by a wide margin.
- Richmond Commonwealth’s Attorney Democratic primary between incumbent Colette McEachin and challenger Tom Barbour, Jr.
- Norfolk Commonwealth’s Attorney Democratic primary between incumbent Ramin Fatehi and John F. Butler
With that…what are you seeing and hearing out there? What’s turnout like in your neck of the woods? Who did you vote for and why? Feel free to add your observations in the comments section.
P.S. Click here for political analyst Sam Shirazi’s 2025 Virginia Primary Predictions for Lt. Governor, Attorney General, House of Delegates.
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