Interesting episode of Network NOVA’s Friday Power Lunch this week, with Democratic House of Delegates candidates from three winnable districts – Mark Downey in HD69 (basically a tie in 2024 between Tim Kaine and Mark Warner; 1.4-point win for Trump), Jessica Anderson in HD71 (4.7-point win for Kamala Harris in 2024) and Virgil Thornton in HD86 (1.1-point win for Kamala Harris in 2024; 3.6-point win for Tim Kaine in 2024) – plus political analyst/strategist Rachel Bitecofer. See below for video and a few highlights.
- Jessica Anderson (running in HD71): “I had the privilege of being on this show two years ago when I ran against Delegate Amanda Batton the first time… I’ve been in the district for over 25 years…My job in the school system opened my eyes to the massive disparities in this community, even though a lot of people on the outside looking in think it’s wealthy and well-to-do…I wanted leadership to actually understand what their community looks like. So in 2022, I decided to take the leap and run…for the 2023 election. I ran a really grassroots campaign, personally, knocked over 6,000 doors, had a very skeleton crew, little to no resources, no digital, no TV. But we proved that this seat was incredibly competitive and one that could be flipped. Missed it by 667 votes…we watched Harris sweep the 71st district by almost five points…so I think all of that momentum, especially like Rachel was talking, the federal level is scaring the hell out of people. And those things are things we need to start thinking about hard to protect at the state level. And this is the opportunity to do that from Abigail all the way down the ticket.”
- Mark Downey (running in HD69): “I’m a pediatrician. Kids call me Dr. D. So, you know, we’re using that as our main focus for our campaign. We need a doctor in the house to fix all the problems that are happening in in Richmond and at the federal level. So, I think, you know, I ran twice before in 2019 and 2021 in the a lot of the areas that overlap with Jess’s campaign this time around. And I think, you know, we started to turn the tide back then. I I was anticipated to lose by 18 points in 2019 and only lost by six percentage points. And even in 2021, a bad year for everyone, I closed the gap from 12% to 10%… Tim Kaine almost won this district… lost this district by only 50 votes and Trump only won it by 1%. And with all the military and veterans and young families that live in our neighborhood, that’s our path there. You know, I spend time on the door saying they’re coming for Medicaid, they’re coming for your SNAP benefits, they’re coming for your VA health care, they’re coming for child care. That’s what people are worried about. That’s what my patients and their families are worried about…”
- Virginia Thornton (running in HD86): “I grew up right here in this area…my area is going to be part of Hampton, part of York County and the entire city of Poquoson. I actually went through the apprentice program here with the largest employer, the Newport News ship building, went into the electrical nuclear program and then I actually went into the automotive industry. That’s where I get a lot of my leadership background, because I believe in the power of community and the importance of effective leadership. And of course at the federal level we see what leadership can do if it’s not the right leadership. But I’m coupling that leadership background with my civic background, because I’m a foster parent for… special needs children and also a mentor for special needs boys to keep them out of trouble…what I’m focused on…is of course expanding health care, also funding our education and also helping our small businesses…that is so crucial because when we look at look at…with the Department of Education being dismantled, a lot of that weight is going to fall on the state and especially with the children that I represent…My opponent does act somewhat as a chameleon. In Hampton, he poses himself as a Democrat, basically because he wears the blue and the light blue tie and his signage is blue and white, but he doesn’t put his identifier that he’s Republican. Then when he goes to Poquoson, which is predominantly red…he has his name on his signage….So our goal is to definitely identify him with this party and all the issues that come with Youngkin and all the issues that come from Trump and of course identify me as the Democrat.”
- Rachel Bitecofer on the Virginia governor’s race: “Here’s something that you can be happy about…the midterm effect and the fundamentals of in-party, out-party are the most important determinant to which party is going to have a cycle that’s good or bad. And we’re on an upswing because Donald Trump is in the White House…So, Virginia is set up to have a monster wave if it builds it correctly. But…I would argue it’s going to be a lot harder to build when the ads are about Democrats and how great they are and not hitting and napalming the Republican brand. And what we would want is, from the state delegate races up, that centralized messaging just like [Republicans] did in 2021 with CRT. And if a candidate is wondering about what I’m talking about, please read the book, because it walks through how they took an issue that wasn’t even a real issue, let alone a top public concern. CRT is something I had never even heard of until 2021 January, when Christopher Rufo first started pushing it. And by September, by October, it’s the main issue. And not only are Republicans wedging it, but Democrats are doing defense. They’re not even on counter-offense. They’re just, ‘oh, you know, but it doesn’t actually do that’, and you know, ‘Tony Morrison’s a Pulitzer Prize winner’. Whoopdy shit…They won because they told white people they want to make your kids feel bad about being white. That’s what CRT meant to the end user, right? And so…to me, it’s like, okay, you guys are going to win and you’ll hold that majority, but I want like six or seven more seats in that House, right? And I want the three statewides to outperform Northam, because Northam again also benefited from this effect. And in 2017…it was a nine point ultimate margin. So like I feel like Abbi is incredible – she’s an incredible candidate. It’s not her, it’s the campaign consultants telling her this is what you do. And like yet I we we just saw Tester lose on that. We saw Sherrod Brown lose on that. I mean it’s lose lose lose lose lose…I mean, Winsome Sears in her last run, they put out a direct mailer of her with an AK-47, dude…go send that thing. Make sure Northern Virginia sees that or your district if you’re running in a House district sees like, this woman is nuts!…It’s Epstein and Medicaid, right?…You guys have like the most potent issues to go wedge. And I say in the book, the voters are just not that into you. They’re into the D and the R on the ballot. Most of them will never even know your name or care who you are. And I know that’s hard to hear as a candidate… but it’s the truth. So you want your brand up and their brand down. And this is a huge opportunity to brand Republicans as bad for Virginia, right?… Don’t use numbers….people don’t absorb numbers. Find one person. And that’s what they did [with] CRT. They had that one mother…so angry because like her kid read a sex scene in a Tony Morrison book. They understand how to manipulate emotion and the power of the anecdote over large data. So those are some tips, just straight off the board.”
P.S. Also, interesting exchange between Katherine White and Rachel Bitecofer:
- Rachel Bitecofer – “We’re at 20% approval…you’re [not just losing Republicans and Independents, you’re] also…losing Democrats…And like why are Democrats disaffected? I’m telling you, it’s not an ideological thing. It’s an appeaser versus a fight thing. Like is this candidate acknowledging that the house is on fire, right? Like running messages about education and child care like it’s like 1994, right? They just purged most of Northern Virginia of their jobs, dude! You got to be in there being like, they’re destroying your life, right?”
- Katherine White: “It’s crazy when you say that. We’ve been kind of…really acknowledging that that’s an issue, right, in Virginia. I mean, we have a big race, a governor’s race, and we should be doubling down on some of this stuff. And it feels like we’re in a risk-averse kind of ad idea, like I just saw an ad run the other day…I care about this. I care about that, and vote for me…and ‘m bipartisan, the most bipartisan person out there. And I’m thinking to myself, oh my god, not meeting the moment, right?”
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