As Sam Shirazi says, this poll by Old Dominion University has “Field dates [that] are [a] few weeks old and includes those who don’t plan to vote.” But, Shirazi points out, it’s “still consistent with Dem edge in Virginia this year.” Also note, “Hampton Roads is Dem leaning area although more swingy.” So, with that, here are the top-line results/takeaways, with my comments in parantheses/green after each bullet point:
- “A survey of Hampton Roads residents suggests Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is well positioned to win the governor’s race in Virginia this November.” (That’s consistent with the vast majority of public polling so far this election cycle, and also consistent with the fact that Virginia almost ALWAYS goes opposite for governor of the party in the White House. Having said that, we should NOT assume we’ve got this in the bag or get complacent in any way, and we should NOT underestimate the Republicans…including their willingness to run an ugly, falsehood-laden, fear mongering, demagogic campaign aimed at revving up their base big time, as happened in 2021.)
- “In the governor’s race, nearly 48% of respondents said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate, Abigail Spanberger, with less than 27% showing preference for the Republican candidate, Winsome Earle-Sears…The last time Virginia elected a governor, Republican Glenn Younkin won statewide by a narrow margin, winning 50.6 percent of the vote versus 48.6 percent of the vote won by Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Within the seven Hampton Roads cities, Youngkin won 45.7 percent of the two-party vote, while McAuliffe won 54.3 percent.” (So Spanberger at 48% in 2025 compared to McAuliffe at 42% in 2021; and Earle-Sears at 27% in 2025 compared to Youngkin at 45.7% in 2021. That latter number is very, very bad for Earle-Sears…18+ points lower than Youngkin in Hampton Roads, while Spanberger is 6 points higher than McAuliffe. Yikes.).
- “As opposed to most years, this edition of the survey was conducted entirely online, with a total of 718 web-based surveys completed between July 7 and July 24.” (I’m not a big fan of polls taken over such a long period of time, or of polls done entirely online, but that doesn’t per se mean it’s not valid. As for just releasing it on August 19, despite the poll being in the field from July 7 to July 24, the problem is that if things have changed significantly since then, this won’t pick any of that up. Having said that, there’s no particular reason to think that things have chnaged dramatically since July 24, as Trump remains highly unpopular in Virginia, Spanberger and Earle-Sears haven’t been on the air in a big way yet, nobody’s committed a major “gaffe” or anything, etc. So…maybe these results are still valid?)
- “Affiliation with the Democratic and Republican parties jumped from 26 to 37% and 20 to 24%, respectively.” (I’m not sure what to make of this, but it seems unlikely that there would have been such big changes in just one year, but maybe it’s the result of Trump being in the White House? Or it could be a bad sample or some other problem with the poll?)
- “The survey’s results also suggest approval ratings for President Donald Trump and Governor Glenn Youngkin could play a role in this year’s gubernatorial election. Both Republicans received less than 50% job approval, but Youngkin fared much better with 47.6% versus only 33.4% for Trump.” (Youngkin at 47.6%-51.3% isn’t great at all, but Trump at 33.4%-65.7% is just beyond horrendous. It’s going to be hard for Sears/Reid/Miyares to win in that environment.
- “Earle-Sears does seem to be struggling to re-assemble Trump’s support coalition in Virginia. Among respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024, Earle-Sears wins the support of 78.1%, with 9.7% indicating they would vote for Spanberger. Among respondents who said they voted for Harris in 2024, Spanberger wins 84.1%, with 4.7 % voting for Earle-Sears. Thus, Earle-Sears is performing worse among Trump voters than Spanberger is performing among Harris voters. Complicating the challenge for Earle- Sears is that Trump himself is struggling to retain approval among a portion of those who voted for him – according to the survey, 12.5% of Trump voters now disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as President.” (This really gets at why Trump and Republicans feel the need to try to suppress the vote, massively gerrymander US House districts in their favor, etc,. in order to try and rig the 2026 midterm elections. Also, again, it’s going to be VERY hard for Sears/Reid/Miyares to win in this environment.)
- “Trump job approval / disapproval strongly predicts gubernatorial election vote-choice among survey respondents. Among respondents who strongly approve of Trump, almost all are already planning to vote for Earle-Sears (85% for Earle-Sears, 2% for Spanberger). Respondents who approve of Trump mostly are planning to vote for Earle-Sears as well (55% for Earle-Sears, 13% for Spanberger), with the large portion not planning to vote for either candidate this could be a potential resource for Earle-Sears. But there are also risks for Earle-Sears of being too closely associated with Trump. Because 16% of those who disapprove of Trump say they would vote for Earle-Sears, closer connection with Trump could weaken Earle-Sears’ level of support among a key voting group. Closer support from Trump (who has lost Virginia in each of his three presidential runs) could cut into Earle-Sears ability to win support from those who disapprove of and/or haven’t voted for Trump.” (So…does Earle-Sears invite Trump to campaign for her, potentially revving up the core Trump “base” but also potentially alienating the vast majority of voters who disapprove of Trump? Tough call for Earle-Sears. Oh, by the way, these results help explain why Earle-Sears wants to make this election anything BUT a referendum on Trump, thus her obsessive focus on transgender kids’ use of bathrooms and locker rooms, etc.
- “Overall, Earle-Sears seems to suffer from disapproval of Youngkin without benefitting equally from approval. Among respondents who strongly approved of Youngkin, 82 percent indicated that they would vote for Earle-Sears (and 12 percent indicated that they would vote for Spanberger), and among those who approved (but not strongly) of Youngkin, only 40 percent indicated that they would vote for Earle-Sears (compared with 30 percent who indicated they would vote for Spanberger). Thus, many respondents who think well of Youngkin do not plan to vote for his lieutenant governor in her quest to ascend to the governor’s office. Despite the loose connection between approval of Youngkin and support for Earle-Sears, there was a tight connection between disapproval of Youngkin and a plan to not vote for Earle-Sears. Only eight percent of those who disapproved of Youngkin planned to vote for Earle-Sears, and less than one percent of those who strongly disapproved of Youngkin indicated that they planned to vote for Earle-Sears. Thus, Earle-Sears could gain substantially from stronger support among residents who approve of Youngkin.” (Again, challenging/not great for Earle-Sears, and raises the question of how tightly she wants to tie herself to Youngkin in this campaign – e.g., will she talk about the “Youngkin-Sears administration” or have Youngkin at many events with her?)
- For House of Delegates, “Slightly more than 50 percent of respondents indicated that they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate, while about one quarter of respondents indicated that they would vote for the Republican candidate. Thus, Republicans polling is slightly worse in the House of Delegates contests than in the Gubernatorial contest…The last time Republicans won control of the House of Delegates (in 2021) the party’s candidates won 45.8 percent of the House of Delegates vote in the 7 cities included in the Life in Hampton Roads Survey, while Democrats won 53.7 percent of the vote. Thus, Republicans appear to be polling far behind the margins they would need to prevail…Overall, while either party could prevail in the contest for control of the House of Delegates in November, the results of the survey appear to give the edge to the Democrats in the Hampton Roads region.” (Again, not good news for Virginia Republicans…particularly in Hampton Roads districts like HD89 – Democrat Karen Carnegie vs. Republican Mike Lamonea.)
So, bottom line: assuming this poll is accurate, and that things haven’t changed significantly since July, it’s good news for Democrats and not-so-good news for Republicans. But again, let’s all “run through the tape” and make sure we take nothing for granted. Plus, of course, you never know what will happen once voters really start tuning in after Labor Day – and god knows what will happen on the national level that might impact these races. So stay tuned…
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