With just 10 days until election day 2025 in Virginia, where do things stand right now? For the latest polling, see here, which weights polls “by quality and recency,” with “averages adjusted for pollster house effects,” etc. – and right now Abigail Spanberger’s up 10 points (52.2%-42.2%) over Winsome Earle-Sears. As for the Lt. Governor, Attorney General and House of Delegates races, a few recent polls have it as follows.
- WaPo/Schar (10/23): For Lt. Governor, Ghazala Hashmi’s up 7 points (51%-44%) over John Reid; For Attorney General, it’s tied 46%-46% between Jay Jones and Jason Miyares.
- Suffolk University (10/23): For LG, this poll has the race *tied* (44%-44%) between Ghazala Hashmi and John Reid; For AG, Jason Miyares leads Jay Jones by 4 points (46%-42%).
- State Navigate: In the LG race, Ghazala Hashmi leads John Reid by 11 points (53%-42%); in the AG race, Jay Jones leads Jason Miyares by 5 points (50%-45%); in the House of Delegates “generic” ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 12 points (53%-41%)
- Clarity Campaign Labs (D): “Lieutenant Gubernatorial race: Hashmi holds a lead outside the margin of error over Reid at 48% to 44% (+4), with 7% undecided”; “Attorney General race: Jones and Miyares are tied at 47% to 47%, with 7% undecided”
- VCU: “In the race for lieutenant governor, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a 44% to 43% edge over John Reid, compared with a 4-point advantage in the most recent Commonwealth Poll. Notably, Attorney General Jason Miyares leads Former Del. Jay Jones 45% to 42%, a net 9-point swing since the last Commonwealth Poll.” “Among registered voters, 47% say they want a Democrat[ic] majority in the House of Delegates and 44% say they want Republican control of the House of Delegates.”
For some analysis, see below for video of UVA Professor Larry Sabato on MSNBC last night talking about the state of the Virginia governor’s race.
- “…there hasn’t been a single nonpartisan poll, that is with a sponsor that does not lean to either party, that has had Spanberger behind. She’s behind only in Republican-sponsored polls or really it’s a tie more than anything else. I think she’s ahead somewhere between seven and 10 points. It may be a little bit more than that depending on where the turnout is. The early voting is usually tilted to Democrats. Exactly how tilted, it’s tough to say from the data that we have available. But you would rather be Spanberger at this point than you would be Winsome Earle-Sears. Very much so.”
- “You have to be cautious, obviously, there’s a whole year to go, and in the Donald Trump era, there are 47 headlines a day that can change things. But what I’m looking for is obviously the margins. The greater the margin by which Spanberger wins, the greater the indication that at least in purple states, there’s a lean away from Trump. And you have to remember, Trump has never been popular here. He’s very unpopular. He lost all three elections here by sizable margins. One was a massive landslide, 10 points Joe Biden beat him by in 2020. So there’s nothing unusual about Trump being unpopular in Virginia. I think he’s even more unpopular than normally…”
- “There have been some unfortunate developments for the Democratic candidate for attorney general. We only elect three statewide positions – governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. The more interesting thing…that nobody focuses on is that all 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up. Right now, Democrats control it 51 to 49. If they’re going to pull off this redistricting scheme that they have proposed, and it was kept pretty quiet, it’s fascinating, they need a few extra seats, they need some a cushion there come January, when the new General Assembly is sworn in and I think they’ll
get it. Everything I see suggests they’re going to move up considerably in the House of Delegates. And if they do have Spanberger, even though she has no role in a referendum, which will have to be held just like California, it’s going to be significant to have her as a new governor pushing hard for this.”
For a focus on the House of Delegates, see here for Sam Shirazi’s latest analysis, which is excellent as always. A few key points include:
- “Realistically, there aren’t going to be that many competitive races”
- “Republicans are not even competing in half the districts or seriously competing in half the districts. They’re only really attempting to compete in 50 of the districts.”
- HD97 (Virginia Beach): “There’s one Democratic-held seat [by Del. Michael Feggans] that the Republicans are competing in; that’s House District 97. I think unless there’s a red wave, which you know right now seems relatively unlikely, I think the Democrats should be able to hold that seat.”
- HD57 (Henrico County, Goochland County): “I think there’s a decent chance or more than a decent chance that the Democrats are going to pick up this seat”
- HD71 (James City County, Williamsburg, New Kent County): “I think Spanberger is a good fit for the district. I think she’s going to be winning the district pretty comfortably. I think there isn’t going to be a whole lot of ticket splitting or enough to save [Republican incumbent Del.] Amanda Batten. So again, if there are seats flipping, I think this is probably the second seat to flip on election night.”
- HD89 (Chesapeake, Suffolk): “…if you kind of have a normal election, Democrats are getting out, the voters to a certain extent, you know I can see this seat definitely flipping”
- HD82 (Petersburg, Dinwiddie County, Prince George County, Surry County): “In theory, the Democrats on a good night should be able to win this seat, but I can see this scenario, even if Spanberger is getting a pretty healthy win where for whatever reason, Democrats are just not coming out in this district. I could, in theory, see [incumbent Republican Del.] Kim Taylor holding on.”
- HD75 (Chesterfield County, Hopewell, Prince George County): “I think if the Democrats have a good night and they’ve spent the money in this district, I think there’s a good chance they could flip it. If it’s more of a kind of neutral environment, then I think there is a scenario where [incumbent Republican Del.] Carrie Coyner could hang on.”
- HD41 (Montgomery County, Roanoke County): “This is the type of seat that could flip. [Democratic challenger] Lily Franklin has run before. She knows how to get those students out. It’s just, can she get and enough of those voters out? Again, purely going to come down to turnout…even if the Republicans [incumbent Del. Chris Obenshain] are ahead election night, doesn’t mean they’re going to win, because there could be enough same-day registrations to give Lily Franklin the edge.”
- HD86 (Hampton, York County, Poquoson): “Democrats are pouring a lot of money into this race…The State Navigate poll seems to say that Democrats [Virgil Thornton] have a good chance of winning it [over incumbent Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza].”
- HD22 (Prince William County): “The incumbent is Ian Lovejoy and the Democrat is Elizabeth Guzman… we have seen some ticket splitting last year in this district, and we’ll see if it happens again.”
- HD30 (Loudoun County, Fauquier County): “The current [Republican] incumbent is Gary Higgins. He is being challenged by Democrat John McAuliff… I think there’s a decent chance Spanberger is going to win this district. Question is how much ticket splitting does McAuliffe get and and does Higgins get because I could see some voters spilling their ticket.”
- HD64 (Stafford County): ” The current incumbent Republican is Paul Milday, and he is being challenged by Stacey Carroll…I think, again, good chance that Spanberger is going to win this district. Question comes down and to ticket splitting and can the Republicans hold on in this district?”
- HD69 (York County, James City County, Gloucester County, Newport News): “The current incumbent Republican is Chad Green. He is being challenged by Mark Downey… I think there’s a decent chance Spamberger is going to win at the top of the ticket. How much ticket splitting is there?”
- HD73 (Chesterfield County): “The current Republican incumbent is Mark Earley, and he is being challenged by Leslie Mehta….Same story…I think Spanberger is going to be doing well in the 73rd district as well, because she used to represent Chesterfield. She comes from the Richmond suburbs. So question just becomes, you know, I’m kind of a broken record, but in all these districts, House District 22, House District 30, House District 64, House District 69, House District 73, how much ticket splitting can the Republicans get or do the Democrats just get straight-ticket voting and do these House of Delegates candidates ride Spanberger’s coattails. And we’ve seen that before in previous Virginia elections, where when there’s a blue wave or a red wave at the top of the ticket in 2017, a bunch of delegates rode the coattails of Northam.”
- Sam Shirazi also talks about HD66, which he thinks leans Republican; and HD34, which he also thinks leans Republican)
- “I think if there’s a really good night, Democrats winning by 10% or Spanberger is winning by 10% or more, that’s where we start getting into the 60-seat territory. And the Democrats are certainly playing to win a lot of seats.”
- Also: “So the Democrats, if they win the House of Delegates, which is increasingly looking like it’s going to happen, they are going to put three constitutional amendments on the ballot for the voters to decide in 2026.”
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