Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Elections November 2025

Here are a few “winners” and “losers” that I believe are worth highlighting from Tuesday’s elections. Note that this list isn’t even close to comprehensive – nor is it intended to be (in part because it could go on for days…and at some point, enough is enough, lol!) – so please add “winners” and “losers” of your own in the comments section. By the way, it’s important to point out that you can be a “winner” even if you’re a right-wing Republican (e.g., McDonnell and Cuccinelli in 2009 were huge “winners,” even though they completely suck!) or whatever, and that you can be a “loser” even if you’re my favorite Democrat in the world, because in this context “winner” and “loser” is all about whether someone “won” or “lost” politically in this election cycle, not whether that makes me happy or not or whether it’s normatively a “good” or “bad” thing, per se.  With that…on to the “Winners”/”Mixed”/”Losers” from the June 17 Virginia primaries.

P.S. I also asked several Virginia Democratic political insiders for their “winners and losers” suggestions (almost all of which are included, below, without attribution to the source)…some of which overlapped with mine. Thanks to everyone who contributed to this list!

Winners

1. Abigail Spanberger/her campaign: She won a huge victory last night, winning the most votes of any governor candidate in Virginia history, also the widest margin of victory for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in modern Virginia history, and will be the first female governor in Virginia history. Amazing/impressive. Just looking at the jurisdictions Spanberger won gives an indication of the scope and breadth of her win: Loudoun County by 29 points (Terry McAuliffe only won it by 11 points four years ago); Fairfax County by 47 points, Albemarle by 40 points, Henrico County by 38 points, Prince William County by 34 points, Chesterfield County by 17 points, Virginia Beach by 11 points, Stafford County by 11 points, Spotsylvania County by 2 points, Chesapeake by 13 points, etc. She also massively outraised Winsome Earle-Sears. And, bottom line, as a top Democratic strategist once told me, “when you win, you’re a genius; when you lose, you’re an idiot.” So right now, Spanberger’s campaign is a bunch of geniuses, even if a lot of their margin of victory had to do with a highly unpopular Republican in the White House (and Virginia almost always going opposite of that), DOGE, federal furloughs/RIFs, etc. Still, the fact is, Spanberger has now won a bunch of tough races – VA07 Democratic primary in June 2018, VA07 election against Dave Brat in November 2018, VA07 again in 2020 and 2022; and now the Virginia governor’s election by a huge margin.  So clearly, Spanberger’s doing something(s) right! [On a related note, great work by Spanberger senior strategist Jake Rubenstein, who suffered a crushing loss four years ago with Terry McAuliffe, but this time around, worked his butt off and helped Abigail Spanberger to a huge win last night; nice job, congratulations/mazel tov!)
2. VA Speaker Don Scott: Having become the first Black Virginia Speaker in history just two years ago, Don Scott will now have a huge majority in the House of Delegates to work with, going from a bare majority (51-49) to a near-supermajority (64-36). And while last night’s many Democratic wins in the House of Delegates were the result of several major factors, Speaker Scott’s hard work, top-notch communications/messaging, excellent candidate recruitment and massive fundraising all played huge roles. Great work, and very much looking forward to seeing the House of Delegates churn out great legislation!
3.  Del. Dan Helmer: As VA House Democratic campaign chair, Helmer deserves MAJOR credit – along with Speaker Scott, as noted above – for last night’s huge Democratic gains in the House of Delegates. Just to review; Helmer and his team are responsible for Democrats flipping 13 (!!!) Republican-held seats – in HD22 (Elizabeth Guzman over Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy), HD30 (John McAuliff over Republican Del. Geary Higgins), HD41 (Lily Franklin over Republican Del. Chris Obenshain), HD57 (May Nivar over Republican Del. David Owen), HD64 (Stacey Carroll over Republican Del. Paul Milde), HD66 (Nicole Cole over Republican Del. Bobby Orrock), HD69 (Mark Downey over Republican Del. Chad Green), HD71 (Jessica Anderson over Republican Del. Amanda Batten), HD73 (Leslie Mehta over Republican Del. Mark Earley Jr.), HD75 (Lindsey Dougherty over Republican Del. Carrie Coyner), HD82 (Kimberly Pope Adams over Republican Del. Kim Taylor), HD86 (Virgil Thornton over Del. AC Cordoza) and HD89 (Karen Carnegie over Republican Mike Lamonea). Wow. Just to put this in perspective, by the way, back in November 2017, Democrats flipped 15 Republican-held seats, all of which had been won by Hillary Clinton, thus were relatively “low-hanging fruit”; this time, Democrats flipped 13 much tougher districts…definitely NOT “low-hanging fruit” by any means. In other words, the “degree of difficulty” was harder this time, yet Democrats ended up picking up nearly as many seats (13 seats) as they did in 2017 (15 seats). Amazing.
4. Democrats who stepped up to run for House of Delegates against incumbent Republicans: See that list above for some of the Democrats who stepped up to run against incumbent Republican delegates, and in those 13 cases, won!  But also, thanks to EVERY Democrat who stepped up to run, even in the deep-red districts, and make the case against the tremendous damage that MAGA Republicans are doing to our country. But yeah, those 13 Democrats, listed in item #3, who flipped Republican-held seats are HUGE winners. Congratulations, delegates-elect!
5. Ghazala Hashmi/her campaign: Hashmi won by nearly 11 points last night, which is better than almost any of the polling suggested – and, in short, just a huge win for Hashmi. So, just six years after jumping into politics and winning a State Senate seat, Hashmi has now been elected Lt. Governor of Virginia. Not bad! Also, as a contributor to this list in June pointed out, “There’s also something to be said for the historic nature of Hashmi’s win. She’s a thoughtful legislator who does her homework- isn’t terribly flashy. IMO that’s a huge win for democracy and voters rewarding that brand of leadership.” And there’s also very much something to be said about Hashmi becoming the first Muslim and first Asian American elected to statewide office in Virginia, also apparently the first Muslim woman to win a statewide office anywhere in the United States (!). Even better, Hashmi’s victory comes after some really nasty/vicious Islamophobia and xenophobia aimed her way, disgustingly, by Virginia Republicans. So…yeah, HUGE win for Hashmi!
6. Women, candidates of color: In addition to electing Virginia’s first female governor, first Muslim/South Asian Lt. Governor, and first Black Attorney General, last night Democrats elected a highly diverse slate of candidates to the House of Delegates (see item #3, above – of those 13 pickups, 11 are women, people of color or both. (In stark contrast, the VA House GOP caucus – what’s left of it – is going to be overwhelmingly white and male…and very right wing).
7. Jay Jones/his campaign: It was quite a path to get there, but still, in the end he *won*, by 6 points no less, which makes him a “winner” by definition. Of course, one could argue that he ran almost 9 points behind Abigail Spanberger and was swept along by her huge win. Still, though, a win’s a win, especially given that a few weeks ago, a lot of people were writing off Jones’ political prospects. (On a related note, Tim Kaine’s a “Winner” for having stuck by Jay Jones when almost nobody else was doing so?)
8. Del. Mike Jones: Ghazala Hashmi wining the LG race means that she’ll be stepping down by early January, which in turn will mean a special election for her State Senate seat. I’m hearing that Hashmi supports Del. Mike Jones to succeed her, which presumably would help make him the favorite for that State Senate seat.
9.   Richmond area/Hampton Roads: Abigail Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi are both from the Richmond area; Jay Jones is from Norfolk; Don Scott is from Portsmouth; also Louise Lucas and Mamie Locke are from Hampton Roads. And those areas are now, in many ways, the centers of political power in Virginia (of course, Northern Virginia maintains major economic power, and plenty of political clout, as well…but it’s striking how much power is centered on people from the Richmond areas and Hampton Roads).
10. DLCC: They invested heavily in Virginia House of Delegates Democrats, and it paid off.  Great work!
11. DCCC: They’ve got to be smiling this morning, thinking about the prospects in Virginia next year for US House – VA02, VA01, maybe VA05 and VA06 as well depending on redistricting – if the political environment is anything like what it was this election.
12. Sen. Mark Warner: He’s also got to be smiling this morning, for a couple reasons: a) he’s on the ballot in 2026, and as noted above, if the political environment next fall is anything like it was this fall, Warner should cruise to reelection; b) the crushing losses for Virginia Republicans last night certainly don’t enhance Glenn Youngkin’s prospects as a potential US Senate candidate against Warner. Quite the contrary, actually, as Youngkin campaigned hard for Virginia Republicans and got his butt kicked (also, his approval ratings are “meh” at best).
13. Hakeem Jeffries: Another Democrat who must be encouraged by yesterday’s Virginia election results has got to be House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, whose prospects for becoming Speaker of the House just went up a few notches…in part due to national sentiments, but also specifically due to Virginia redistricting (which clearly didn’t hurt Democrats last night at all, by the way) and the potential for 2 or 3 more Democratic seats coming from Virginia next November.
14.  VA Senate GOP Leader Ryan McDougle: It’s kind of weird to put any Republican in the “Winners” column after last night’s disaster for their party, but it was suggested to me by one of my sources that McDougle “wins” by being one of the last Republicans left standing (“the last redoubt”) in Virginia’s state government. I’m kinda skeptical, but I can see the argument. Of course, McDougle’s probably just thankful that the State Senate wasn’t on the ballot this election instead of in 2027, because if it had been on the ballot this election, most likely the partisan makeup would now be more like 25-15 or 26-14 Democratic instead of 21-19 Democratic.
15.  Reps. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07) and Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10). Not that either was in much political jeopardy next year, regardless, but if the midterm elections are anything like the November 2025 elections in terms of the political environment, both Vindman and Subramanyam should cruise to victory. Throw in the possibility of Democratic-friendly redistricting, which clearly did NOT cause a backlash by voters yesterday, and…voila, these two guys are in the “Winners” category for sure!
16. Potential Democratic nominees in VA01, VA02, VA05, VA06: As per item #14, the combination of a blue-friendly political environment PLUS the possbility (likelihood?) of Democratic-friendly redistricting next year means that whoever wins the Democratic nomination in VA01, VA02 (Elaine Luria if she decides to run, as Brandon Jarvis reported earlier today), VA05 and maybe even VA06 stands a good chance of winning next year. On a related note, I hear that Spanberger narrowly won VA01 as it’s currently drawn…and presumably she won VA02 as well.

Mixed

1. Clean Virginia: They went all-in for Jay Jones – and he won – in the Democratic primary last spring (although they didn’t contribute to him significantly post-primary). They also heavily supported Ghazala Hashmi – and she won. And they supported Abigail Spanberger and several Democratic House of Delegates candidates (Lily Franklin, Leslie Mehta, Kimberly Pope Adams, John McAuliff, Karen Carnegie, Mark Downey, Virgil Thornton, Elizabeth Guzman) – all of whom won. So why isn’t Clean Virginia in the “Winners” category? Simply because two incumbent delegates they supported heavily (and inexplicably), Republicans Carrie Coyner and Amanda Batten, both lost last night. Still, on balance, Clean Virginia was more “winner” than “loser” – so maybe “high mixed?” LOL
2. Elections Polls/Prognosticators: See here for some of the best and worst among the pollsters and prognosticators. Great job by State Navigate, for instance (their  polling was spot-on, and their website last night, including their version of the elections “needle,” was VERY helpful!); not so much by Roanoke College, VCU, CNU/Wason, etc.
3. Voter Turnout: According to VPAP, as of 2:30 pm today, about 3.3 million Virginians voted in this election, which as far as I’m aware (also, see these stats) is the highest turnout ever in a statewide, non-federal election in Virginia. So that’s the good news. The less-than-good news is that that still only represents something like half of Virginia registered voters, which – depending on how you look at it – is pretty lame. Of course, turnout yesterday was particularly weak in deep-red parts of the state, so there’s that as well…

Losers

1. Donald Trump: He can lash out, make excuses, etc., but the bottom line is that voters largely reacted to him – and VERY negatively at that. As CNN’s exit polls found, for instance: “In Virginia, New Jersey and California, more than half of the electorate sees their vote as sending a message to Trump. That message, largely one of opposition, helped to propel Democratic gubernatorial wins by Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. In California, it helped seal support for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push to redraw the state’s congressional maps.” Bottom line, as CNN says, “Voters in key 2025 races largely disapprove of President Trump, exit polls show.” Which makes Trump a huge loser, even if he hates having that word applied to him more than almost anything else…haha.
2. Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) and Rob Wittman (R-VA01): In short, the results last night should have them freaking out, for a bunch of reasons. For Kiggans, note that Virginia Beach makes up 57% of VA02, and…yep, Abigail Spanberger WON Virginia Beach last night, by a 10-point (55%-45%) margin no less! I also hear that Spanberger narrowly won VA01, as it’s currently drawn, which has got to have Wittman sweating. Plus, Democratic-friendly redistricting is possible/likely next year, which will make VA01 and VA02 even LESS friendly to Wittman and Kiggans. So…yeah, they’re kinda screwed?
3. Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05): This is a redder district than VA01 or VA02, but if there’s Democratic-friendly redistricting and if the political environment next fall is similar (or worse for Republicans) than this fall, then McGuire could be in deep trouble. McGuire’s also on the “Losers” list because he campaigned HARD for Winsome Earle-Sears, and…she lost badly.
4. VA GOP/Chair Mark Peake: As of January 2026, the VA GOP will face a situation with Democrats as governor, LG, and AG; a House of Delegats in which they have only 36 out of 100 seats (ergo, next to no power); zero US Senators; a State Senate controlled by Democrats; and several of their incumbent US House members in serious political jeopardy next year. None of which is exactly going to engender (bad pun alert!) “Peake” excitement for Virginia Republicans! Anyway, former VA GOP Chair Rich Anderson must be happy he got the hell outta there before this latest disaster.
5. Terry Kilgore: With former VA House GOP Leader Todd Gilbert heading (very briefly) into the Trump administration, Kilgore became VA House GOP leader, hoping to pick up a couple seats and become Speaker of the House. Except…nope, it didn’t quite work out as planned, with Kilgore’s caucus getting utterly annihilated last night, and with Kilgore facing the situation that David Toscano used to face with VA House Democrats, namely being in the small minority and effectively powerless. Also, good luck raising money, recruiting candidates, etc…
6. Winsome Earle-Sears/her campaign team: I mean, what the hell were they even doing? They actually thought that talking constantly, obsessively about where people go to the bathroom (Speaker Don Scott a couple weeks ago referred to Earle-Sears and the VA GOP as the “pee-and-poop caucus” LOL), also the miniscule number of trans kids playing on K-12 sports teams (an even more miniscule number, basically zero, are so good that they skew the competition), and constantly bashing trans people was smart politics? And Winsome Earle-Sears actually thought that loudly/rudely talking over Abigail Spanberger in their one televised debate was going to cause voters to flock to her? Plus, Earle-Sears’ appearances outside the right-wing media bubble mostly didn’t go well, and she kept giving material to Democrats for them to use (e.g., that classic “I AM SPEAKING!” clip, lol). Anyway…as one person from out of state asked me, baffled, the other day, what on earth were Virginia Republicans thinking when they nominated Earle-Sears as their gubernatorial candidate? Did they have a death wish or something? But sure, keep doing that, Virginia Republicans – like PLEASE nominate Bryce Reeves for US Senate next year, that would be an *awesome* idea for sure, hahahahaha.
7. Glenn Youngkin: Campaigned hard for Winsome Earle-Sears, donated nearly $750k to her campaign, spewed out insanity on her behalf, and…she got crushed, along with the rest of the VA GOP ticket, up and down the ballot.  So Youngkin ends his four years as governor with minimal accomplishments, having done a lot of damage to Virginia, and with among the lowest approval ratings of any Virginia governor at this point in their terms going back historically. Youngkin hopes to take this debacle nationally, either with a run for US Senate next year or for president in 2028? I mean, that was already a long shot, but after last night’s VA GOP meltdown (plus the fact that he lost the House of Delegates in 2023), what argument can he possibly make to Republican voters regarding his political chops? Uhhh…
8. Jason Miyares/his campaign team: If there was ONE Republican candidate a lot of analysts/prognosticators expected to win this cycle, it was Jason Miyares post-Jones-texting scandal. And yet, somehow or other, Miyares – despite massively outspending Jones down the home stretch, dominating on the airwaves, etc. – ended up losing …by six points no less. So now what for Miyares, after arguably being one of the worst Attorneys General in Virginia history (VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell and Sen. Jennifer Boysko really laid it out the other day)? Maybe try to get a gig in the Trump administration? And if that doesn’t work out…???
9. John Reid/his campaign team: Give him credit for running an energetic campaign, as well as a creative one in terms of social media, but it’s hard to see Reid having much of a political future after losing by 11 points for LG, getting heavily outspent, etc. Plus, there was a LOT of intra-GOP turmoil surrounding his candidacy, with Glenn Youngkin even demanding at one point that Reid drop out, Winsome Earle-Sears avoiding him for weeks/months, etc. Maybe he can get his MAGA radio gig back?
10. Carrie Coyner: So in the end, she leaked private texts with her former friend Jay Jones to try and destroy his candidacy, and…he won and she lost her seat in the House of Delegates. If that doesn’t put you in the “Losers” category, nothing will.
11. UVA and GMU rectors: With Democrats controlling all levers of power in Virginia starting in January, these universities’ leadership could be facing a serious reckoning with regard to their acceptance of Trump administration demands about “DEI,” etc. Watch out; something tells me Senate and House of Delegates Democrats are not too happy with these guys…
12. Traditional Media Coverage of Virginia’s Democratic primaries: Unfortunately, state/local media has been in decline for years, and that includes its coverage – or lack thereof – of local and state politics. That was certainly reflected in this cycle’s generally shallow, superficial, spotty, “horse race” coverage by the corporate media of the Democratic statewide and (particularly) House of Delegates/local primaries. The WaPo, for instance, barely even covered the House of Delegates races, and their main coverage of the LG race was about the controversy over Glenn Youngkin calling for John Reid to step aside. Plus, the WaPo did its usual, sanewashing/whitewashing Republican extremism, because that’s what they do (they also did a last-minute hit piece against Jay Jones on their editorial page; apparently, it made no difference whatsoever, because honestly, at this point, who gives a flying f&%# what Jeff Bezos and his right-wing editors think about ANYTHING???). Does it serve the public? Definitely not. As for the rest of the Virginia media, the traditional newspapers are in bad shape financially, but also in terms of their entire way of covering politics, namely tons of “both sides” false equivalence, sanewashing/whitewashing of Republican extremism (this cycle, they did it heavily with John Reid and Winsome Earle-Sears), stenography (particularly with material Republicans feed to them), “access journalism” (an oxymoron, btw), etc. Then there are right-wing media outlets, like Sinclair-owned WJLA7, Fox “News,” right-wing talk radio shows, etc. In sum, it’s a really bad situation…and getting worse, as right wingers continue their relentless efforts to buy up/control the media. (Note: It’s not all bad; there are independent journalists out there who do good work, also citizens who put out factual, fair-minded information, like Sam Shirazi with his Federal Fallout podcast).