Fascinating new poll results, given that it’s by a very right-wing group, “The Virginia Project.” In a way, it’s surprising they even put this out there, given how bad it is for Virginia Republicans, but maybe their goal is to attack the Republican Party of Virginia as incompetent or whatever (which it is, of course, but that’s not the reason for this horrible polling, lol!). So anyway, here are a few highlights:
- “Virginia Democrats enter the 2026 midterm cycle from a position of genuine structural strength. A new statewide poll from The Virginia Project and The Public Sentiment Institute, fielded May 1 through May 5 among 1,111 registered voters and 1,047 likely voters, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 14 points, Senator Mark Warner holding roughly a 25-point advantage over every Republican challenger tested, and President Donald Trump carrying a net approval rating of 20.5 points underwater among the state’s likely voters.”
- “The enthusiasm signal heading into 2026 is exceptionally strong. Among likely voters, 83.9% describe themselves as “certain to vote and highly motivated to do so,” while another 12.2% say they are “very likely to vote and feel motivated.” Together that is 96.1% of the likely voter pool expressing high confidence they will vote, which is partly a function of how the likely voter screen was constructed, but it does reflect genuine engagement.”
- “Likely voters were asked to rank ten issues from most to least important on a scale where 1 is the highest priority. The results are unambiguous. The Economy, Jobs & Cost of Living finished first with an average weighted rank of 4.19, and a full 39.2% of likely voters named it their single top priority, which is roughly five times the rate of the next closest issue.”
- “When asked which party they trust more on each issue, likely voters gave Democrats dominant advantages across most of the policy landscape”
- “If the August 4th Republican primary for Senate were held today, Kim Farington would get 22.3% of likely voters, Bert Mizusawa 23.5%, and David Williams 10.1%. But 39.7% remain undecided and 4.4% say they would not vote in the primary.”
- “In a hypothetical general election matchup between Kim Farington and Mark Warner, likely voters choose Warner 54.0% to Farington’s 29.3%. Independent Mark Moran draws 2.4%, and 14.3% are undecided. That is a D+24.7 margin. Against Bert Mizusawa, Warner leads 54.6% to 28.8%, with Moran at 2.6% and 14.0% undecided. Net: D+25.8. Against David Williams, Warner leads 53.8% to 29.0%, with Moran at 2.9% and 14.3% undecided. Net: D+24.8.”
- “Two hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups were tested. Against JD Vance, Gavin Newsom leads 46.3% to 37.7%, with 4.9% for a third party candidate and 11.1% undecided. Net: D+8.6. Against JD Vance, Stephen A. Smith draws 33.6% to Vance’s 37.6%, with 11.8% for a third party candidate and a full 17.0% undecided. Net: R+3.9.”
- “Trump’s job approval stands at 39.2% approve and 59.7% disapprove, a net of 20.5 points underwater. The intensity of disapproval is notable: 49.3% strongly disapprove versus only 18.2% who strongly approve. That asymmetry of intensity matters in turnout calculations…The single most underwater number in the entire survey is Trump’s handling of the Epstein files. Only 27.2% of likely voters approve of how he has handled that issue. 60.7% disapprove. Net: -33.5″
- “Governor Abigail Spanberger is one of the few political figures to emerge from this survey with clearly positive ratings. Among likely voters, 52.0% approve of her job performance and 40.7% disapprove, for a net of +11.3…The redistricting referendum she supported also polls positively. Among likely voters, 51.7% approve of it and 42.1% disapprove, for a net of +9.6.”
So overall, great news for Virginia Democrats heading into November (e.g., a 14-point lead in the generic ballot for US House would mean disaster for Rep. Jen Kiggans in VA02, quite possibly Rob Wittman in VA01, and possibly John McGuire in VA05 as well – even if the new maps don’t go into effect!). What else jumps out at you from this poll?
