I’m not a big fan of Nate Silver at this point, but
his new forecast is out for the 2026 midterms, and…what the hell, let’s just throw it into the “mix” along with
FiftyPlusOne (which has Dems heavily favored to take back the House, slightly favored to win the Senate – and here in Virginia, to win back VA02 and possibly VA01 as well),
Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” (for whatever reason, not as bullish on Dems as FiftyPlusOne and Nate Silver), etc.. See below for a few graphics and highlights from Silver’s forecast, including:
- Silver puts Dems’ chances of regaining the US House at 86.6%.
- As for Virginia, Silver’s map is kinda weird (e.g., VA06 is definitely not in the right place – maybe he used AI to generate the map?), but as far as I can tell, what he’s saying is that VA06 (far-right-extremist Rep. Ben Cline vs. Democrat Beth Macy) and VA09 (nutjob/embarrassment Rep. Morgan Griffith vs. Democrat Joy Powers) are both “Solid R,” while VA05 (Democrat Tom Perriello vs. incumbent MAGA Republican extremist John McGuire) is “Lean R,” VA01 (Democrat Shannon Taylor vs. incumbent Republican slimeball Rep. Rob Wittman) is “Tossup,” and VA02 (Democrat Elaine Luria vs. amoral/pathological liar/Trump rubber stamp Rep. Jen Kiggans) is “Likely D.”
- As for the US Senate, Sliver has Dems with a 57.3% chance of taking it back, with the most likely outcome being 51D-49R. (Here in Virginia, Sen. Mark Warner’s seat is in absolutely no jeopardy, of course, especially against his wacko Republican opponent, Bert Mizusawa – “Solid D”)
So overall, a solid forecast for Democrats, but of course a LOT can happen between now and election day in November, including god-knows-what-insanity Trump might pull, including monkeying with the elections themselves, plus whatever other insanity he does. Also, we don’t really know what gas prices will look like this fall, although we’re just a few weeks from Labor Day and the Strait of Hormuz situation still doesn’t look like it’s on track to be resolved, so…not looking great on that front? Finally, as always, let’s take nothing for granted, certainly NEVER get overconfident, and instead “leave it all on the field” – the country we save could very well be our own!
