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Good stuff this morning by VPAP; as VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell says, they’re out with their “updated performance index,” in this case “showing 27 [State Senate] seats that are Democratic [or] competitive – 2027 can’t come soon enough.” See below for maps and indices, and keep in mind that currently, Virginia’s US House delegation stands at 6D-5R; the State Senate at 21D-19R; and the House of Delegates at 64D-36R. For the U.S. House, this fall Democrats have a great shot at picking up 1 seat (VA02), a decent shot at picking up another seat (VA01), and an outside shot (assuming a blue wave, great campaign by Tom Perriello, etc.) of picking up yet another seat (VA05) – which could make Virginia’s US House Delegation as blue as 9D-2R, not much different than the 10D-1R map we would have had if the Virginia Supreme Court hadn’t absurdly struck down the will of the people of Virginia on the redistricting amendment. As for the State Senate, we have a great chance next year to increase the Democratic majority to 22-27 seats, while hopefully holding our 64-36 majority in the House of Delegates. But first, of course, we’ve got to focus on the midterms this year…plus of course the three constitutional amendments on the ballot.
So what jumps out at you from the following graphics? For State Senate next year, I’m thinking that Democrats can and should pick up SD24 (Sen. Danny Diggs), SD17 (Sen. Emily Jordan), SD27 (Sen. Tara Durant), and possibly SD4 (Sen. David Suetterlein), SD12 (Sen. Glen Sturtevant) and SD20 (Sen. Bill DeSteph). For House of Delegates, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are HD30 (Del. John McAuliff), HD69 (Del. Mark Downey, who’s running for State Senate), HD41 (Del. Lily Franklin), HD64 (Del. Stacie Carroll), HD66 (Del. Nicole Cole), HD73 (Del. Leslie Mehta), HD86 (Del. Virgil Thornton), HD89 (Karen Carnegie), etc. – all seats Democrats won in the landslide Abigail Spanberger win over Winsome Earle-Sears. Next year, we’ll need to focus on holding most if not all of those, hopefully in a “blue”-friendly political environment, but you never know.
P.S. Another big question for next year will be how many Democratic primaries there will be, and whether we’ll see something here in Virginia that we haven’t seen yet, which is victories by DSA-endorsed candidates…as we’ve seen in several other states this year.
