Fascinating stuff from VPAP – 2024 Presidential Results by State Legislative Districts. There’s a ton of information to digest here, but a few top-line takeaways include:
- As Sam Shirazi says: “Most battlegrounds will be in seats Harris or Trump won by less 10. Neither party will automatically win any of these seats. But Dems can get to majority by winning all Harris +8% seats.”
- Also from Sam Shirazi: “For those looking ahead to 2027, Dems can get 21-19 majority in State Senate by winning Harris +9% seats Also have shot of winning 4 more Harris won and GOP held State Senate seats.”
- For the Virginia House of Delegates, 64 seats (including HD54 and HD55, for which final results are still not available) are pretty much completely non-competitive in any realistic scenario. That includes 42 “Strong Dem” seats, where Kamala Harris won by more than 20 points, and 22 “Strong Rep” seats, where Donald Trump won by more than 20 points. Then there are 24 seats (11 “blue,” 13 “red”) won by Harris or Trump by 5-20 points. Finally, there are 12 seats that are actually competitive, as they were won by Harris or Trump by just 5 points or less.
- Key House of Delegates districts to keep an eye on – and to try and win! – next year include: HD82 (Republican Del. Kim Taylor vs. likely Democratic opponent Kimberly Pope Adams; Harris won the district by 3 points), HD89 (Republican Del. Baxter Ennis; Harris won the district by 3 points), HD86 (Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza; Harris won the district by 2 points), HD73 (Republican Del. Mark Earley Jr; Harris and Trump tied in this district), HD22 (Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy; Harris won the district by 1 point), HD30 (Republican Del. Geary Higgins; Trump won the district by 1 point), HD69 (Republican Del. Chad Green; Trump won the district by 2 points), HD66 (Republican Del. Bobby Orrock; Trump won the district by 2 points), HD64 (Republican Del. Paul Milde; Trump won the district by 2 points), HD100 (Republican Del. Rob Bloxom Jr; Trump won the district by 5 points), HD99 (Republican Del. Anne Tata; Trump won the district by 4 points) and HD41 (Republican Del. Chris Obenshain vs. likely Democratic nominee Lily Franklin; Trump won the district by 4 points).
- Currently, Democrats control the House of Delegates by a very narrow 51-49 margin, so it would really be great if we could pick up a few seats next year – at least the ones Harris won, which would get Democrats to 57-43 (or 58-42 if we can win HD73, where Harris and Trump tied). Something to shoot for (although, obviously, some of these districts have strong Republican incumbents, so will require VERY strong Democratic nominees to have a shot at)!
- The 40-member State Senate (currently 21-19 Democratic) isn’t up for election until 2027. According to VPAP’s analysis, 22 of those seats were won by Harris by 5 points or more, while just 13 seats were won by Trump by 5 points or more. That leaves 5 seats (SD17 – Republican Sen. Emily Jordan, SD27 – Republican Sen. Tara Durant, SD04 – Republican Sen. Dave Suetterlein, SD12 – Republican Sen. Glen Sturtevant, SD20 – Republican Sen. Bill DeSteph) that might truly be competitive. If Democrats win none of those, they’ll still have a 22-18 majority after the 2027 elections. If Democrats can pick up a couple of those, however, it would be better, giving them a 23-17 or 24-16 majority – more of a cushion than the extremely narrow majority Democrats have now. Again, something to shoot for…but a LONG way off, and who knows what will happen in the country and the Commonwealth between now and then!
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