Over at VPAP, they now have 2024 U.S. House results by Virginia legislative district (House of Delegates and State Senate). Compare/contrast to VPAP’s analysis of 2024 PRESIDENTIAL results by Virginia legislative district. Bottom lines:
- Based on 2024 U.S. House results, Democrats should be favored to win 52 out of 100 Virginia House of Delegates districts and 21 out of 40 State Senate districts. This is similar to – but not exactly the same as – VPAP’s analysis of 2024 presidential results (where VPAP had 53 House of Delegates districts and 22 State Senate districts pretty solidly Democratic).
- Key, competitive House of Delegates districts (elections in 2025) include: HD65 (incumbent Democratic Del. Joshua Cole), HD82 (incumbent Republican Del. Kim Taylor), HD97 (incumbent Democratic Del. Michael Feggans), HD57 (incumbent Republican Del. David Owen), HD21 (incumbent Democratic Del. Josh Thomas), HD86 (incumbent Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza), HD89 (incumbent Republican Del. Baxter Ennis), HD64 (incumbent Republican Del. Paul Milde), HD22 (incumbent Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy), HD66 (incumbent Republican Del. Bobby Orrock), HD71 (incumbent Republican Del. Amanda Batten), possibly HD73 (incumbent Republican Del. Mark Earley Jr.), possibly HD30 (incumbent Republican Del. Geary Higgins), etc.
- Key, competitive State Senate districts (elections in 2027) include: Possibly SD30 (incumbent Democratic Sen. Danica Roem), SD31 (incumbent Democratic Sen. Russet Perry), SD27 (incumbent Republican Sen. Tara Durant), SD17 (incumbent Republican Sen. Emily Jordan), etc.
- Per Sam Shirazi: “HD-22 President: 49%-48% Harris House: 51.3%-48.4% GOP HD-30 President: 49.2%-48.4% Trump House: 53%-47%GOP HD-64 President: 50%-48% Trump House: 51.5%-48.5% GOP. Suggests these will be harder for Dems to flip than Presidential numbers suggest“
- Also per Sam Shirazi: “Virginia General Assembly districts by 2024 House vote GOP held seats in NOVA HD-22, HD-30, and HD-64 had open Congressional races. House GOP candidates did better than Trump suggesting more red down ballot.”
What else jumps out at you?
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