As you can see from Sen. Mark Warner’s campaign press release a little while ago, it definitely appears – as Sam Shirazi points out – that it “seems official…Warner is running for re-election in 2026.” Also, as Sam Shirazi points out, “Warner certainly a favorite in Trump midterm,” with the “only question…if Governor Youngkin runs.” My guess is that Youngkin will test the waters, but in the end won’t pull the trigger if he thinks it’s unlikely he’d win this race. But we’ll see; Youngkin certainly likes being in the spotlight, even if he brings almost nothing of substance, unless you count 24/7 bootlicking and groveling to Trump as “substance.” LOL
As for Sen. Mark Warner, I mostly think he does a good job and is, along with Sen. Tim Kaine, part of one of the most effective US Senate teams in the country. A few more thoughts on Sen. Warner, in no particular order, are:
- Since he was elected governor in 2001, he’s been one of the most successful politicians in Virginia, leaving the governor’s mansion with approval ratings in the 70%s (!), then absolutely *crushing* former Gov. Jim Gilmore, 65%-34%, in the 2008 election for US Senate and defeating Republican Daniel Gade by 12 points (56%-44%) in 2020, with a near-brush with political mortality in the “Tea Party”/”red wave” midterm year of 2014, when Warner came within 19,000 votes of losing to Republican Ed Gillespie. But mostly, Warner’s been a political force in Virginia for a quarter century, and one would have to think he enters the 2026 reelection campaign as the favorite to win. (note: a January 2025 poll found “45% said they would support current Sen. Warner, while 38% would support [Glenn] Youngkin.” So…if that’s accurate, Warner starts with a comfortable lead over Youngkin.
- While some on the left have expressed interest in Sen. Warner facing a Democratic primary, I’d say the chances of a serious intra-party challenge to Warner are minimal. If one *does* happen, it presumably would be a younger challenger, one with significant charisma and access to campaign contributions. It would presumably challenge Warner on several fronts – forcefulness in fighting back against Trump? willingness to work “across the aisle” vs. being MUCH more confrontational and partisan? ideology, given that Warner has always framed himself as a “moderate”/”radical centrist”/etc? But as of now, I’d be really surprised if Warner ended up facing a serious, credible, well-funded primary challenge…especially given that the VCU poll in January 2025 found that the “vast majority of Democrats (88%) stated they would vote for Warner.”
- Whether you like him or not, Sen. Warner is very smart and knowledgeable on many areas of policy, including foreign policy, intelligence, the military, economics, technology, etc. The only area where I haven’t been particularly impressed with Warner’s expertise, really, has been energy, where for instance he seems to actually be enthused about the super-expensive/technologically-not-even-close-to-ready-for-primetime “Small Modular Reactors” and nuclear fusion power. But other than that, if you listen to Sen. Warner in his weekly press availabilities, you’ve got to come away impressed with his incredibly wide range of knowledge and ability to speak authoritatively on just about any subject, off the cuff, in detail. Sen. Warner may be 70 years old, but he doesn’t seem to have lost a step in terms of energy or mental sharpness.
- Personally, I’d like see *all* Democratic Senators, including Senators Warner and Kaine, be less willing to maintain “norms” vis-a-vis Trump, given that Trump is busy smashing any/all norms, rule of law, etc. Specifically, while I understand Sen. Kaine’s reasoning (and presumably Sen. Warner’s reasoning is similar) on voting for numerous Trump Cabinet picks, I simply don’t agree that this is the way to proceed at this point. For instance, to me it was glaringly obvious that Marco Rubio would be a terrible Secretary of State, and that Kristi Noem would be a disaster as Secretary of Homeland Security, yet Rubio was confirmed 99-0, while 34 Democrats (including Sen. Kaine, although not Sen. Warner) voted to confirm Noem. Personally, I would have voted against the vast majority of Trump’s Cabinet picks, given that they were/are a combination of extreme, corrupt, unqualified, etc. And yes, they would have been confirmed regardless of how Democrats voted, but to me, that’s a reason to just do the right thing – and vote no. So that’s frustrating, although in the end, I don’t think it is – or necessarily should be – enough to justify a primary challenge to Sen. Warner or most other Senate Democratic incumbents. Because, in the end, Trump *was* elected president, *was* going to get his Cabinet (since Democrats are in the minority in the Senate), and the only question was the best strategy to deal with this deplorable situation…
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