Is this morning’s Politico story about Abigail Spanberger and the 2025 Virginia governor’s race just “concern trolling,” as per the highlighted exchange on Twitter? The headline and subheader for the Politico story lay out their “framing”: “Spanberger is poised to win big in Virginia. But national Democrats could drag her down.” and “The party’s rising star is betting that her economic message will flip the governorship — and give the party a blueprint for the midterms.”
Sounds potentially plausible, but before we even get into analyzing the arguments, a couple points: 1) Politico is owned by Axel Springer, who “has a decades-long record of bending journalistic ethics for right-wing causes”; 2) at best, Politico is like much of the mainstream media – lots of “both sides” false equivalence between the two parties, lots of bashing Democrats, frequently claiming Democrats are in disarray/DOOOOOMED; 3) they’re less hostile to “moderate” Democrats than liberal ones; etc. Just a few things to consider as we look at this morning’s Politico piece.
So first of all, Politico frames its story as Spanberger being “poised to win big,” but then immediately trample on that by the pretty-much-inevitable-for-Politico followup, namely “But national Democrats could drag her down.” Because, you knew with 100% certainty that THAT is where Politico was going to go with this – because it’s what they always do! Anyway…let’s just take their arguments at face value, assume good faith for a second (although it’s highly doubtful they actually ARE operating in good faith), and see if it makes any sense.
- “Six months out from November, Virginia Democrats believe the governor’s race is Abigail Spanberger’s to lose.” At the risk of being accused of “overconfidence,” “taking things for granted,” etc., YES, of course it’s Spanberger’s race to lose, given: 1) the historical pattern that, with only one exception since 1973, the party out of the White House ALWAYS WINS the Virginia governorship, sometimes by large margins (e.g., in 2009 with Bob McDonnell by 18 points and 2017 with Ralph Northam by 9 points); 2) the Republican president, Donald Trump, is VERY unpopular in Virginia (e.g., according to the recent Roanoke College poll, Trump was at just 31% approval and a whopping 65% disapproval in Virginia); 3) also per that Roanoke College poll, “While the Democratic Party is not seen in a positive light (51% unfavorable), the Republican Party fares even worse (63% unfavorable)”; 4) Democrats have a very strong candidate in Abigail Spanberger, while Republicans have a very weak candidate in Winsome Earle-Sears (in sharp contrast, Republicans had a strong candidate in 2021 with Glenn Youngkin, who had a ton of money and was basically a blank slate who could be all things to all people). So given all that, it’s pretty much a “giant DUH!” that the 2025 Virginia governor’s race is “Spanberger’s to lose.” Of course, that doesn’t mean she is 100% guaranteed to win, nor does it really get at what her margin of victory could end up being, but still…yeah, tell us something we don’t know, Politico.
- “There’s a risk the former member of Congress could get bogged down by national malaise toward the Democratic Party, and her margins could end up being tight because of the negative Democratic brand.” Politico is correct that the Democratic Party “brand” right now isn’t great. As NBC News reported back in March, for instance, “Just over a quarter of registered voters (27%) say they have positive views of the party, which is the party’s lowest positive rating in NBC News polling dating back to 1990.” OUCH! On the other hand, consider a couple points: a) part of that negative impression of the Democratic Party is “driven by fed-up Democrats…after they watched their party lose to Trump in 2024” and who “want their party to hold the line on their positions even if it leads to gridlock, rather than focus on finding areas of compromise with the president“; b) it’s not like Republicans are popular either, as the GOP “also has a net-negative image, with 49% of voters saying they view the party negatively and 39% saying they view it positively”; c) Trump himself, as noted above, is intensely unpopular in Virginia, including among federal employees, federal contractors, their families and friends, etc., and in the end, it’s going to be very hard for Winsome Earle-Sears, John Reid and Jason Miyares to separate themselves from that, even if they try (and risk alienating their own base).
- Spanberger “benefits from the unpopular actions of President Donald Trump,” “enjoys strong name recognition and is far out-fundraising her opponent, a candidate who even some fellow Republicans are wincing about.” Yes, all of those things are true.
- “National Democrats believe that if Spanberger can broaden her appeal beyond the blue strongholds of Northern Virginia by convincingly talking about kitchen table issues, that will give them a much-needed morale boost and help guide them in the midterms.” Sure, that’s great and Spanberger should definitely do that, but it does raise the question of which is more important this year: a) working to enthuse/excite/drive up Democratic “base” turnout; or b) assuming that Democratic “base” turnout will be there regardless, because they’re so angry about Trump, Musk, etc., thus allowing Spanberger to kind of take that vote for granted, while focusing more of her attention on appealing to independent voters and maybe even some “moderate” or “Never Trump” Republicans (if there are any of those left). Personally, I would recommend trying to do both, just as Youngkin did both in 2021 – definitely work to turn out the “base” (as Youngkin did effectively in 2021 by throwing them a constant stream of “red meat,” largely via right-wing media) while ALSO attempting to appeal to the “middle” (as Youngkin did in 2021, mostly via his TV ads that attempted to portray him as a sweater-vest-clad suburban basketball dad who was focused on the economy, kinda like “Bob’s for Jobs” and “Fairfax’s’ Own Bob McDonnell” in 2009). As long as you’ve go the resources, you can definitely try to do both, although Spanberger’s disadvantage relative to Youngkin in 2021 is that, unlike Youngkin, she doesn’t have a massive echo chamber at her disposal, as Youngkin did. So that definitely makes such a strategy much harder for Spanberger to pull off than for Youngkin in 2021 (and once again points at a MASSIVE failure by Democrats to build such an infrastructure over the past couple decades, even as the right wing very much did so).
- “Virginia Democrats, confident that Elon Musk’s unpopularity will linger even as his term as a special government employee has expired, point to Department of Defense workers and contractors living in the more competitive Hampton Roads area who lost their jobs as evidence that anger over DOGE is not just limited to the northern part of the state.” Correct – this issue is NOT going away by November, or for years to come really…
- “Moderate Democrats see Spanberger as the ideal candidate to confirm their view that the party should shift toward the middle.” This is mostly just typical “mainstream media”/Politico blather about how they love “moderates” and “the middle,” whatever that even means exactly. But no question, Spanberger has worked hard to “brand” herself in that way, even as her record in the US House showed her voting 86.8% of the time in 2023 with Joe Biden – which is almost exactly what you’d expect, given that Democrats “in districts that Biden won by 10 points or less in 2020 supported the president 84 percent of the time (9 points less than the partywide average).” So basically, Spanberger voted very much as a Democrat, but a bit more “moderate” in sync with her “purple,” compettitve district (which went by 6.8 points to Biden in 2020). For comparison purposes, Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03) voted 94.3% with Biden in a district that went by 38 points to Biden; Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA11) voted 94.4% with Biden in a district that went by 41.3 points to Biden; Rep. Jennifer McClellan voted 95.6% with Biden in a district that went by 35.7 points to Biden; etc.
- “Democrats view Hampton Roads, a competitive area that Spanberger needs to win, as the epicenter of several of Trump’s policies. In addition to DOGE layoffs, the Port of Virginia located here is bracing for a decline in shipments from other major trading partners.” Yes, and we’ll definitely need to see strong turnout from places like Norfolk, Newport News, etc. this fall – that was part of Terry McAuliffe’s downfall in 2021, relatively low turnout among the Democratic “base” in places like Hampton Roads, compared to Youngkin’s intensely high turnout in deep-red areas of Virginia.
- “Virginia Republicans, on the other hand, are banking on DOGE being a distant memory when voters head to the polls in November. Those Republicans are skeptical that Spanberger’s anti-Trump message will resonate beyond the Democratic base, and they insist that swayable voters.” There’s minimal chance of DOGE “being a distant memory” by November, given that the impacts will very much still be hitting Virginians. As for whether an “anti-Trump message will resonate beyond the Democratic base,” again note that Trump’s disapproval rating in Virginia is at 65%, according to the recent Roanoke College poll, and that’s certainly not just the “Democratic base” disapproving of him…unless you think 65% of Viriginans are Democrats, in which case the Republican ticket will REALLY have problems this fall! LOL
In sum, the Politico article this morning about the 2025 VA Governor’s race is fairly typical of the “mainstream media” in general, and Politico specifically – questionable “framing,” indications of “concern trolling” against Democrats, etc. – but that doesn’t mean it’s all wrong. To paraphrase what one smart Virginia politico told me this morning about the article – “Among activists/more engaged voters, you’re right [that at least some of the Democratic Party’s low approval rating right now is Democrats frustrated that the party isn’t fighting Trump hard ENOUGH],” but “among non-engaged voters, the Democratic Party scores very low.” Also, “Politico just has to nationalize since it’s a national publication.” But yeah, in the end, it’s Spanberger’s race to lose, for all the reasons noted above – and it’s our job to make sure she not only doesn’t lose, but that she wins BIG (to send a message nationally, to make sure we sweep all three statewide offices, to pick up as many House of Delegates seats as possible). Let’s do it!
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