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With early voting having started in Virginia yesterday, and with November 3 rapidly approaching (just 45 days away), where do the political modelers/forecasters have the midterms right now? I checked out some of main modelers/forecasters; you can see the highlights, below. I’d also strongly recommend that you read yesteday’s post by G. Elliott Morris of “Strength in Numbers”, which basically rips the “race raters” (Cook Political, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball), arguing that the “race raters” have “a durable pro-White House bias in midterms,” and that they are “understating Democratic support” – to the tune of about 30 percentage points in win probability in the House this year. That’s a heck of a bias, and not one that the quant modelers have.” Yikes. Anyway, with that in mind, check out the forecasts, below, with my thoughts in bold/italics/green/parentheses.
The Economist (which I think is excellent):
- “Democrats have a 9 in 10 chance of taking the House” (D237–R198); 199 Safe D, 16 Very Likely D, 10 Likely D, 18 Uncertain, 18 Likely R, 43 Very Likely R, 131 Safe R (seems about right to me in the current political environment, with Trump’s approval rating in the 30%s, with Dems much more likely to vote than Rs, etc.)
- VA01 – Democrat Shannon Taylor has a 52% chance of winning; VA02- Democrat Elaine Luria has an 80% of winning; VA05 – Republican John McGuire has an 84% chance of winning; all other districts are 99%+ for the incumbent (Democrat Bobby Scott in VA03, Democrat Jennifer McClellan in VA04, Republican Ben Cline in VA06, Eugene Vindman in VA07, Democrat Don Beyer in VA08, Republican Morgan Griffith in VA09, Democrat Suhas Subramanyam in VA10, Democrat James Walkinshaw in VA11) (This seems about right to me.)
FiftyPlusOne (which I also think is excellent):
- Dems with a 97% chance of winning the House; median outcome has Dems with 238 seats (a gain of 41 seats)
- In Virginia, FiftyPlusOne has VA01 as Lean D, VA02 as Likely D, VA05 as Lean R, and all other districts (VA03, VA04, VA06, VA07, VA08, VA09, VA10, VA11) as safe for the incumbent (This seems about right to me.)
VoteHub (very solid stuff):
- Dems have an 83% of winning the House; current forecast 234D-201R
- In Virginia, VA01 is 60% likely to go to Republican Rob Wittman; VA02 is 74% likely to go to Democrat Elaine Luria; VA05 is 80% likely to go to Republican John McGuire; others are all 98% (VA06), 99% (VA07) or 99%+ (all others) for the incumbent. (This seems reasonable to me; maybe slightly pessimistic for Dems in VA01 and VA05.)
Split Ticket (seems mostly spot-on to me):
- Gives Dems an 89% chance of winning back the House, likely with 233 seats.
- In Virginia, they have Shannon Taylor with a 53% of winning VA01; Elaine Luria with an 80% chance of winning VA02; Tom Perriello with a 21% chance of winning VA05; Beth Macy with a 1% chance of winning VA06; all others at 100%. (This seems about right to me.)
Nate Silver (Whatever has happened in past cycles, the work he’s been doing this cycle has been excellent, as far as I can tell):
- I can’t access it, because I don’t subscribe, but according to this tweet, Silver as of 9/11 had Dems forecast to win 233 seats.
- Anyone know what Silver’s Virginia forecasts are right now?
Decision Desk HQ (mostly ok, although seems too pessimistic for Dems right now):
- Has Dems with a 70% chance of winning the House (seems low to me)
- In Virginia, they have Rob Wittman with a 77% chance of winning VA01, Elaine Luria with an 81% chance of winning VA02, John McGuire with a 77% chance of holding VA05; Eugene Vindman with an 89% chance of holding VA07; all the other districts with the incumbent holding a 98% or 99% chance of winning reelection. (This seems too pessimistic for Dems in VA01; also, I’d put Vindman closer to 99% and )
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (I used to be a lot more of a fan when Larry Sabato was much more heavily involved; less so these days now that he’s semi-retired or whatever):
- 203 Safe/Likely/Lean R (6 Lean R, 24 Likely R); 18 Tossup, 210 Safe/Likely/Lean D (15 Lean D, 13 Likely D) (IMHO, this is too pessimistic for Dems)
- In Virginia, VA01 is Lean R, VA02 is a Tossup, VA05 is Likely R, VA07 is Likely D; all others Safe R (VA06, VA09) or Safe D (VA03, VA04, VA08, VA10, VA11) (IMHO, this seems too pessimistic for Dems; VA01 arguably is a tossup, and VA02 is arguably lean D)
Cook Political Report (I’m not a fan of Cook Political Report AT ALL – these forecasts are utterly ridiculous. BTW, Charlie Cook can’t possibly be pleased with what Amy Walter has done to his namesake, right?):
- Has 185 Solid D districts, 12 Likely D, 9 Lean D, 21 tossup, 7 Lean R, 21 Likely R, 180 Solid R (overall 208R–206D) (This is just laughable; WTF are they even doing over there? Rs are favored in THIS POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT??? Hahahaha, ok!)
- In Virginia, has VA05, VA06, and VA09 all as Solid R; VA01 as Lean R; VA02 as Tossup, VA07 as Likely D; and the rest (VA03, VA04, VA08, VA10, VA11) as Solid D (IMHO, VA01 could be a tossup right now, VA02 lean D, VA07 safe D)
Inside Elections (I don’t know much about them, but their current forecast isn’t doing it for me at all, LOL!):
- Current projection has Dems gaining just 2-10 seats (This seems…uhhh…let’s just say, a wee bit too pessimitic on Democrats, given that all indications are for a massive “blue wave” this election)
- In Virginia specifically, Inside Elections rates VA01 as Lean R, VA02 as Tossup, VA05 as solid R, VA07 as Likely D, and all others (VA03, VA04, VA06, VA8, VA09,VA10, VA11) as solid for the incumbent. (Too pessimistic for Dems, IMHO, including VA05 as “Solid R” – should be Lean R or Likely R; VA02 as Tossup – should be Lean D at least; VA01 as Lean R – probably should be a tossup in the current “blue wave” or even “blue tsunami” political environment)
Kalshi (I don’t like prediction markets for numerous reasons, but here’s an example of one since a lot of people look at them):
- Has Dems winning 233 House seats overall (Seems reasonable)
- Has Shannon Taylor with a 41% chance of winning VA01; Elaine Luria with an 80% chance of winning VA02; Tom Perriello with a 21% chance of winning VA05; Beth Macy with a 6% chance of winning VA06; Joy Powers with an 8% chance of winning VA09.
What do you think of these forecasts?
