With just over 7 weeks until the crucial 2018 mid-term elections, see below for the latest predictions from FiveThirtyEight.com and PredictIt. I’ll also throw in my thoughts/predictions as well. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts/predictions in the comments section!
First, I’m not quite as optimistic as FiveThirtyEight.com that Dems have an 83.1% chance of taking back the House in November, but that might simply be because I am still freaked out that freaking @#$@!!$@ Trump won two years ago. Other than that, though, I have no particular reason to disagree with FiveThirtyEight.com’s forecast…
As for Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, I have no reason to think that Corey Stewart isn’t going to lose; I just want to make sure he is absolutely CRUSHED, both to send a message about who Virginia is and is NOT these days, and also to help Democratic “down-ballot” candidates via Kaine’s “coat tails.” So yeah, let’s rack this win up big time!
I’m never going to count out Barbara Comstock, as she’s nothing if not a survivor. Still, I have no particular reason to disagree with the PredictIt and FiveThirtyEight.com forecasts, both of which have Jennifer Wexton with around a 4 in 5 shot of taking VA-10 on November 6. Let’s make sure that happens!
Given the massive scandal engulfing Scott Taylor, I’d call this race a tossup at this point…a bit more optimistic than PredictIt and DEFINITELY more optimistic than FiveThirtyEight.com (which I presume is based on old, outdated polling). Go Elaine Luria!
I’d put VA-07 in the “slight lean Republican” or maybe even “tossup” category at this point. I’m not sure why FiveThirtyEight.com has Abigail Spanberger’s chances at only 1 in 3. I’d recommend that Democratic activists do whatever we can to help push Spanberger over the finish line in 50 days!
I definitely think Democrat Leslie Cockburn has a shot here over Republican and “Bigfoot Erotica” afficionado Denver Riggleman, but not a 4 in 7 shot — more like slight lean Republican or maybe tossup if we want to be optimistic.
No argument here, as this is a “red” district with a well-funded, entrenched Republican incumbent (unfortunately).
Democrat Jennifer Lewis rocks! But again, it’s hard to argue with this forecast, as VA-06 is a deeply “red” district.
Democrat Anthony Flaccavento is a strong progressive an energetic candidate, but he’s running in a district which went for Trump by 39 points. Not sure how it’s possible to make that up.
This one’s just for fun, as Kaine has stated he’s not running in 2020.
This one’s an underestimate, as TMac is almost certainly running in 2020. Not saying I want him to run (I absolutely don’t!) or that I think he can win the nomination (very hard to see how he’d do that), but I’d say it’s very likely he’ll throw his hat in the ring.
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