Blue Virginia

Category: Winsome Sears

  • Two Days Since Alex Pretti’s Murder, and Virginia Republicans Are Busy Ignoring the Biggest Story in America. And Yes, “Silence Is Complicity.”

    Two Days Since Alex Pretti’s Murder, and Virginia Republicans Are Busy Ignoring the Biggest Story in America. And Yes, “Silence Is Complicity.”

    It’s now been two days since the murder of Alex Pretti by Trump regime goons in Minneapolis on Saturday, January 24. The reaction from Virginia politicians: overwhelming concern and condemnation by Democrats, “crickets” from Republicans. See below for what I mean:

    First, here’s the Augusta Free Press on Reps. John McGuire (R-VA05) and Ben Cline (R-VA06):

    “McGuire, on his personal Twitter page, did, sorta, kinda, address Minneapolis and ICE, though not the shooting itself.

    McGuire reposted an item from discredited MAGA influence peddler James O’Keefe in which O’Keefe, who makes a living surreptitiously filming and editing clips of people on the other side of the political spectrum from him to make them appear to be saying things they didn’t say, complained about being confronted by political ‘agitators’ from the other side, who he then threatened, in his post, to ‘expose.’

    McGuire’s comment, which had a 7:15 a.m. Sunday timestamp, on the O’Keefe post: ‘Paid operation?’

    So, McGuire knows what’s going on.

    Cline might not; he comes across to me as being a Mike Johnson type, who likes to claim that he hasn’t seen whatever the latest national political controversy is in the news, and Cline is so good at it that it can be hard to tell if it might be the case that he actually is clueless.

    Either way, they’re not weighing in on the latest shooting by the ICE thugs.

    Silence is complicity.”

    And as of this morning? For his part, McGuire tweeted that, “Due to inclement weather, my Washington D.C., Lynchburg, and Goochland Offices will be closed, Monday, January 26th.” Also, MAGA fanatic and Trump bootlicker McGuire tweeted this sycophantic blather: “During House GOP’s Media Row I talked about President Trump”s amazing wins, like leading U.S. crude oil production to reach an all-time high in 2025, setting a record output of 13.6 million barrels per day.” As for far-right-extremist Cline, he tweeted about how he supposedly had something major to do with “President Trump’s swift approval of our request yesterday for Virginia’s Emergency Declaration ahead of tonight’s winter storm.”  Riiiight…sure, dude. Anyway, pathetic as always from McGuire and Cline.

    As for Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01), who is highly likely to lose his seat in November if we get new districts, and in political jeopardy even if the districts stay the same, other than a tweet about the snow/sleet/ice storm…nada. As for Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09), he had nothing to say about the Minneapolis murder, but DID have time to take credit (dishonestly) for Trump’s emergency declaration for Virginia. Last but most definitely least, HIGHLY vulnerable (e.g., she’s almost certainly political “toast” in November) Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) tweeted about meeting with “ARMADA, to discuss innovation and emerging technologies that strengthen our military readiness and national security”; about “urging Secretaries Pete Hegseth and Doug Burgum to reconsider halting offshore wind projects like the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project” (except that the Trump people know that Kiggans is all bark and no bite); and also about the fact that “the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning.” And that’s about it from her. This November, it will be awesome to see her defeated by former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) or whoever is the nominee in VA02!

    How about former Virginia AG Jason Miyares? On his Twitter feed, it’s a mix of bad-faith attacks on Gov. Abigail Spanberger and Virginia Democrat, plus a humorous tweet about the snow/ice, and…nope, nothing about the cold-blooded murder in Minneapolis from this supposed “law-and-order” guy. How about former Gov. Glenn Youngkin? Silence on his Twitter feed – apparently, he’s busy moping or whatever now that he’s out of office and watching Abigail Spanberger work to undo all the damage he did. Also, silence on former LG Winsome Earle-Sears’ Twitter feed. Nothing on the VA GOP’s Twitter feed either, other than retweeting a fear-mongering article by the far-right NY Post (“Virginia Dems propose law to drop mandatory prison time for rape, manslaughter”).

    How about Virginia Senate GOP Leader Ryan McDougle? All he’s got is “No snow days allowed in the Senate! We are here in the General Assembly Building fighting for real affordability and common sense policies!” (spoiler: Virginia Republicans are actually fighting AGAINST “real affordability” and FOR right-wing/non-common sense policies). Virginia House GOP leader Terry Kilgore? All he’s got is a retweet about “the generation mix in PJM,” in order for this fossil fuel industry puppet to score a cheap shot against clean energy. And, again, NOTHING about the murder in Minneapolis.

    Sensing a pattern here? Bottom line: Virginia Republicans have nothing to say about the Trump administration’s thuggishness, lawlessness, authoritarianism, violence, etc., because in the end they know that 1) Trump/MAGA is who they are, who they endorsed, who they voted for, etc; 2) they know where their hard-core “base” is at; 3) politically speaking, they presumably know that the American people (other than the Republican “base”) DISAPPROVE of ICE’s tactics. Plus, presumably, they don’t have great talking points on the murder of Alex Pretti, other than joining in the Trump administration’s disgraceful, callous, appalling smear campaign against an ICU nurse who was holding a cell phone and trying to help a woman who had been pushed by a federal agent. So clearly, Virginia Republicans have calculated that for the time being at least, their best – albeit cowardly – bet is to simply ignore the biggest story (by far) in America right now. Yet again, nothing if not pathetic.

    P.S. And WHY are Virginia Republicans not uttering a peep about the murder of Alex Pretti? See below, as Jamelle Bouie explains the entire situation really clearly…

  • 11 of Winsome Earle-Sears’, John Reid’s and Jason Miyares’ Biggest FAILS of the 2025 Virginia Election

    11 of Winsome Earle-Sears’, John Reid’s and Jason Miyares’ Biggest FAILS of the 2025 Virginia Election

    As the saying goes in politics, when you win you’re a genius (or at least a lot of people THINK you’re a genius, lol), when you lose you’re an idiot (ditto). Even if you won or lost because of broader forces at work, not so much what your campaign did or didn’t do. Still, I think in looking back at the 2025 Virginia statewide campaigns, we can identify some major “FAILS” by the Winsome Earle-Sears, John Reid and Jason Miyares campaigns. Here are eleven that jump out at me (in no particularly order); feel free to suggest others in the comments section!

    1. Winsome Earle-Sears’ over-the-top, bizarre debate performance on October 9: This was the only scheduled debate between Winsome Earle-Sears – who was trailing at the time by about 10 points – and frontrunner Abigail Spanberger, so I get that Earle-Sears felt pressure to have a “moment,” be aggressive and possibly cause Spanberger to make an “unforced error” (like Terry McAuliffe did in 2021 with his botched remarks about whether parents should play a role in their kids’ education). But c’mon, seriously? Did the Earle-Sears folks seriously think that constantly talking over Spanberger, being incredibly unprofessional and rude, bringing up the Jay Jones texts over and over and over again, etc. was going to get her anywhere? I mean, if they DID think that, in the end it didn’t work, as Spanberger’s lead held constant or even grew post-debate, leading up to Spanberger’s final victory margin of 15+ points.  (By the way, if you want to see what a Virginia Republican consultant had to say about Earle-Sears’ debate performance, basically that “it was not something that was appealing to anybody,” click here.)
    2. Earle-Sears’ weird, offputting “I AM SPEAKING” clip from the 2024 Buena Vista Labor Day celebration. I mean, major kudos to the Spanberger folks for honing in on this bizarre clip and using it HEAVILY in paid media to define Earle-Sears and to center other things around. Very clever. As for Earle-Sears, what the heck did she think she was doing at that event? Just for a small sampling of what Earle-Sears had to say at that event – but you definitely need to watch the video to get the best sense of how unhinged it was – here you go: “Donald Trump he didn’t start no wars. I am speaking! I am speaking! I am speaking! USA USA USA USA! USA USA USA! We’re going to win in November. We’re going to win in November! We have to win! We got to keep the White House! We’re going to win! God bless you! God bless you! And God bless America!” LOL, wuuuuut? Anyway, to put it mildly, the Spanberger folks were able to use this to their advantage…and for good reason, because even if you’re not into politics at all, most people have got to find Earle-Sears language and demeanor at that event just…weird, and that’s an understatement.
    3. Republicans’ attacks on a random Democratic volunteer holding a poorly worded (at best) and/or obnoxious/offensive sign on August 21. This one got huge attention, driven by OUTRAGE (sincere or not) by Republicans at a sign carried by a random activist, not working for the Spanberger campaign or the Democratic Party of Virginia, which she claimed was “satire mean to provoke conversation about the absurdity of prejudice” (against trans people OR Black people, although the sign was very poorly worded for sure). The thing is, are we now going to hold candidates responsible for literally anything/everything one of their (random) supporters says or does? If so, it’s pretty much endless if we want to get into the nasty, bigoted, hateful crap spewed by right wingers on Twitter or whatever. In this case, of course, Abigail Spanberger immediately, and correctly, condemned the moronic sign as “racist, abhorrent and unacceptable,” adding that “no matter the intended purpose or tone and no matter how much one might find someone else’s beliefs objectionable, to threaten a return of Jim Crow and segregation to a Black woman is unacceptable.” Bingo. Yet the Earle-Sears campaign, Virginia Republicans, etc. continued to pound away on this for days if not weeks. And the result? Spanberger’s lead in the polls went from about 8.7 points pre-“signgate” to just over 9 points a couple weeks later. In short, this entire incident had essentially zero impact on the campaign, certainly not in a way that helped Earle-Sears or her ticketmates.
    4. Republicans attempts to use the offensive Jay Jones text messages to bring down Abigail Spanberger.  The texts scandal story hit on October 3 in the conservative National Review, and it caused a huge uproar for sure (and to be fair, the texts were really nasty/disgusting). But it arguably had no impact at all on Spanberger’s lead over Earle-Sears (at the time, it was around 10 points; Spanberger won by 15+ points). As for Jay Jones himself, it most definitely impacted the AG race polling, with Jones leading by about 6 points just before the scandal broke, falling to a dead heat or even trailing Jason Miyares by a few points through the end of the campaign (note: the State Navigate poll on 10/22 had Jones up 5 points). But in the end, Jones won the election by  nearly 7 points, similar to his polling lead pre-texts-scandal. So in the end, not only did the texting scandal not defeat Jones, the attempts to tie that scandal to Abigail Spanberger absolutely didn’t appear to work – at all.
    5. The Earle-Sears’ campaign obessive focus on bashing trans kids (and adults, aka “they/them” messaging) for where they went to the bathroom (as Speaker Don Scott called it, the “pee-and-poop caucus” LOL), which sports teams they played on, etc. – instead of what voters actually cared about, which was jobs, the economy, DOGE, etc. This was pretty much nonstop in Earle-Sears’ paid media content AND on her social media feeds, in her media appearances, etc. And the result? Well, again, she ended up losing by 15+ points, so obviously the constant anti-trans demagoguery and bigotry didn’t appear to be effective politically, whether against Spanberger or for the Republican ticket overall. Also, note that polling found only a VERY small percentage of voters said “transgender policy” was a top issue for them. So in the end, the Earle-Sears campaign spent a TON of money (and time, energy, etc.) on this issue, and it appears to have accomplished absolutely nothing (other than demonizing trans kids, who aren’t hurting anyone, etc.).
    6.  John Reid’s constant bashing of Ghazala Hashmi – for not debating him, for supposedly being just like Zohran Mamdani (aka, supposedly far left, which isn’t true; and Muslim – Reid trying to stoke/benefit from Islamophobia). Reid didn’t have the money needed to go on TV in a big way, so he mostly focused on getting around the state, on earned media, and on his social media feed. As for his messaging, it was heavily negative, focused on the supposed horrors of elected “far-left”/”radical”/”socialist”/etc. Ghazala Hashmi; how Hashmi was supposedly JUST LIKE MAMDANI (far-left plus Muslim); how Hashmi wouldn’t debate him, meaning she (supposedly) must have a lot to hide; etc. Of course, the media refused to call any of this out, because that’s how they operate, and to the contrary heavily whitewashed, sanewashed, etc. Reid as a generic “radio host,” “conservative,” etc. But in the end, did any of this actually work for Reid? No sign of it, based on the results, with Reid losing to Hashmi by over 11.5 points…just a few points lower than Spanberger’s 15+-plus-point margin of victory over Earle-Sears.
    7.  Jason Miyares’ barrage of anti-Jay-Jones ads. Mixed results on this item, actually, as Miyares only lost by 6.7 points, meaning that Jones “underperformed” Spanberger by nearly 9 points. Of course, we don’t know if Jones would have underperformed Spanberger regardless, whether because he was outpsent by Miyares, because Miyares was the incumbent, or whatever, but in the end, even if the Miyares campaign’s barrage of anti-Jones paid advertising helped cut the Jones margin of victory over Miyares, it only got Miyares within 6.7 points, so…sure, “mixed” results but in the end, Miyares still lost pretty badly regardless.
    8.  Earle-Sears getting the worst of both worlds with Trump. On the one hand, Trump never gave Earle-Sears his full-throated endorsement, basically gave her the cold shoulder despite her pleading for his endorsement/support. So in the end, to the extent many Virginia voters saw this election as a referendum on Trump (whether for him or against him), Earle-Sears arguably got the worst of all worlds here — all the negatives among the majority of voters who disapproved of Trump, but none of the positives of boosting turnout by the MAGA “base” from being seen as tight with Trump. Also, how weak and pitiful does it look to be pleading with Trump to endorse you, just weeks before the election, especially while former President Barack Obama came to campaign for Abigail Spanberger in front of thousands?
    9.  On a related note, Earle-Sears refused to ever criticize Trump on ANYTHING, even as his policies – also DOGE, the government shutdown, etc. – decimated Virginians and were “top of mind” for many/most voters. So I get why Earle-Sears was kind of caught between a rock and a hard place on this one, because if she broke with Trump in any way, she risked dampening MAGA “base” turnout and also causing Trump to come down on her like a ton of bricks. But still…c’mon, you want to be governor of Virginia but you’re not even willing to stand up for Virginia and Virginians? Not only is that the wrong thing to do morally/ethically, it’s also not going to help you politically in the end. And, indeed, it didn’t help Earle-Sears, who lost in one of the biggest landslides in decades, in large part because she never broke with Trump in any way/shape/form, even as the majority of Virginia voters were furious at Trump.
    10.  Earle-Sears’ signs that read, “LET’S KEEP A GOOD THING GOING!” I mean…sure, you can go with messaging like that if the majority of voters actually believe things are going well and want to keep them going in the same direction. But was that the case? Certainly not in terms of polling on how people viewed the direction of the country. As for how they viewed the direction of Virginia specifically, it’s pretty hard to separate that out from the negative views on the country’s direction overall, especially given the fact that Virginia’s on the front lines in many ways in terms of “federal fallout” (to use Sam Shirazi’s accurate/astute expression). So maybe the Earle-Sears campaign was trying to imitate Trump’s signage in the 2024 presidential election, but as the Republican representative on the “After Virginia Votes” panel noted, “Trump’s the only person that can do that.” And Earle-Sears definitely wasn’t Trump, or even endorsed by Trump, so…nah.
    11.  Earle-Sears’ lack of success in terms of her bus tour, “mainstream media” strategy, lack of policy, etc. As for the bus tour, it basically became a source of mockery by the Spanberger campaign, as the crowds were very small, sometimes Earle-Sears simply didn’t show up (for no apparent reason), and at one point her bus even caught on fire (the bus was empty; nobody was injured; more of a meme/metaphor than anything else). As for her “mainstream media” strategy, there didn’t really appear to be one, leading to some serious carping by the media (see here, for instance). Now, nobody really cares if the “mainstream media” isn’t happy with their level of access to a candidate, but was that lack of access (let alone the lack of almost any policy specifics, plans, etc.) a net *positive* for Earle-Sears? Hard to see how it was, given the results. Of course, if you don’t really have much if anything to offer in terms of serious policy solutions, ways to actually address voters’ main concerns, examples of how you accomplished things during your four years in office, etc., then…yeah, maybe it DID make sense to avoid the media? LOL  Of course, if you don’t have any of those things to offer voters, what on earth are you doing running for governor in the first place???

    UPDATE: Suggestion from a reader for a 12th item on this list.  “Reid aligning himself with the so-called Fairfax whistleblower who turned out to have faked evidence that a school official facilitated an abortion and forged the statement, which, even aside from the bogus nature of the claim, reminded pro-choice VA voters than he was an anti-choice nutjob who thinks abortion is like slavery.”

    P.S. By the way, what on earth did the Earle-Sears slogan “Common Sense, Not Nonsense” even mean? Especially given that the LAST thing Earle-Sear was all aboutw as “Common Sense.”

  • With Final Results Now In, Here Are Some Key Takeaways from the 2025 Virginia Elections

    With Final Results Now In, Here Are Some Key Takeaways from the 2025 Virginia Elections

    We now have what appears to be final election results from Virginia’s elections on November 4, so it’s a good time to look at what happened in detail, including some key takeaways. (Note: I plan to add more to this list…definitely more to say on these historic elections!)

    • First, from VPAP, here are the final results from the 2025 Virginia elections: Abigail Spanberger defeated Winsome Earle-Sears by 15+ points (57.6%-42.2%); Ghazala Hashmi defeated John Reid by 11.5 points (55.6%-44.1%); Jay Jones defeated Jason Miyares by nearly 7 points (53.1%-46.5%); Democrats flipped 13 Republican-held House of Delegates seats, going from a 51D-49R House of Delegates narrow majority to a massive 64D-36R House of Delegates majority.
    • Also worth noting, there were 3.43 million votes cast for governor this year, compared to the 4.51 million votes cast in the 2024 presidential election and 3.29 million votes cast for governor in 2021. So…turnout was up about 4% from 2021 (Spanberger got 1.98 million votes, up about 24% from the 1.60 million votes for Terry McAuliffe in 2021; Earle-Sears got 1.45 million votes, down about 13% from Youngkin’s 1.66 million in 2021).

    • Interesting points by DJ – “Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024; Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA.”

    • From VPAP: Here are the gubernatorial results by US House district; as you can see, five U.S. House districts (VA03, VA04, VA08, VA10, VA11) are “Strong Dem,” with another two U.S. House districts (VA02, VA07) leaning Democratic, and with VA01 “purple”/competitive. Of course, this is BEFORE any potential mid-decade redistricting that could happen next spring, if the General Assembly passes the new constitutional amendment again, if it stands up in court, and if voters approve it next spring. But even if that doesn’t happen, both Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01) and Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) are in jeopardy of losing their seats next November. If we get Democratic-friendly redistricting, then potentially Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05) and possibly even Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA05) could be in competitive districts. Stay tuned…

    • Per CNN’s exit polls of Virginia in 2021 and 2025, this year’s electorate was a bit more diverse racially and somewhat more liberal than in 2021.

    Per CNN’s exit polls of Virginia in 2021 and 2025:

    • Looking back at past Virgnia governor’s race winners and losers (back to 1945), Abigail Spanberger’s 15.4-point margin this time was the highest for a VA Democratic gubernatorial candidate since 1961, and the third-highest margin since 1993 (Bob McDonnell won by 17.3 points in 2009; George Allen won by 17.4 points in 1993).

    • From VPAP, this map shows that turnout was BELOW the state average in SW Virginia, parts of Southside Virginia, and also in parts of the Hampton Roads area. Turnout was above the state average in parts of central Virginia, the DC exurbs, etc.

    • From Philip Bump, here’s a map showing that pretty much every jurisdiction in Virginia shifted in the “blue” direction since 2021. What a difference four years, a different party in the White House, different candidates, etc. makes.

    • From VPAP, here are some “swing localities” this year and historically. A few big ones include Virginia Beach, Chesterfield County, Stafford County, Chesapeake, etc. 

    • For those who claim that early voting numbers and models aren’t helpful in predicting election outcomes, here’s a counterargument from this year’s Virginia governor’s race. As you can see, L2 Data’s final modeled estimate was that Spanberger was winning the early vote by 17.6 points. She went on to win the election by 15.3 points (a bit lower because Republicans tend to vote more proportionally on election day, Dems tend to use early voting more heavily). Not too shabby an estimate!

    • From VPAP, here are the number and party of House of Delegates incumbents defeated in elections going back to 1997. As you can see, this year matched 2017, when Democrats defeated 13 Republican incumbents (plus two others in 2017, for a total pickup of 15 seats). Of course, this election the degree of difficulty was arguably much higher for Democrats, as most of the seats picked up this election were not as “low-hanging fruit” as the 15 seats in 2017 that were held by Republicans but won by Hillary Clinton (actually, Clinton won 17 Republican-held seats, and Democrats almost managed to pick up all 17 of them in 2017…remember one had to be drawn out of a ceramic bowl to break a tie, another was super close).

    • Per Chaz Nuttycombe – whose State Navigate did an amazing job in polling (e.g., see our article on their 10/22 poll, which had Spanberger +13, Hashmi +11, Jones +5…very close to the actual results, and MUCH better than most other pollsters), election night calls and live presentation of results, etc. this election, by the way – these four Republican delegates held on this time (in Tony Wilt’s case, by just 257 votes over Democrat Andrew Payton in HD34), but could be in jeopardy going forward, given that their districts were won by Abigail Spanberger on November 4.

    • From VPAP, election results by VPAP Index estimates show that Democratic candidates won ALL the “Strong Democratic” (39) and “Leans Democratic” (9) districts, as well as all the “Competitive” (10) districts, and even 6/14 “Leans Republican” districts. A blue tsunami, in other words!

    • From VPAP: As you can see, Democrats will now have a governing “trifecta” (governorship, House of Delegates, State Senate) in Richmond after four years of divided government, preceded by two years of an incredibly productive Democratic “trifecta” in 2020-2021. What’s truly amazing is how rarely Democrats have held a “trifecta” since 1994, and how rarely EITHER party has done so actually. Do voters prefer “divided government,” thus chose “divided government” deliberately, or what? One thing’s for sure; the last time Democrats had a “trifecta,” they got a LOT done – passing hundreds of bills that were signed into law by Gov. Ralph Northam. In contrast, the past four years, Glenn Youngkin has basically been a veto machine. So now that Democrats will hold a “trifecta,” we’ll presumably see a LOT of the bills Youngkin vetoed come back, pass the General Assembly and be signed into law by Gov. Abigail Spanberger. Good stuff.

    • From VPAP, Democrats will hold 64 House of Delegates seats starting in January 2026, “the most since 1988.” At Democrats’ low point, they held just 32 seats in the House of Delegates, so the 64 seats that Democrats will hold starting in January 2026 represents a *doubling* compared to that. For those of us who were active in Virginia politics during those years, it’s really astounding (in a good way!) to witness this…

    • From Wikipedia, it’s really striking to compare/contrast where House of Delegates Democrats were in November 2015 (just 34 seats; Republican Speaker Bill Howell seemingly entrenched forever…) compared to now (64 seats; Speaker Don Scott with a massive majority to work with).

    • Very interesting from J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “As with Ralph Northam 8 years ago, Spanberger led the Dem ticket and ran ahead of most Dem House of Delegates candidates. Dems won the HoD popular vote by close to 17 points–better than Spanberger’s 15.4% margin–but several Dem-held seats were uncontested.”

    • From the Prince William Times, this illustrates very well the changing nature of politics in Prince William County, which has been trending blue for years now. Heck, even formerly solid-red parts of the county in the north and west are now either pink or light-blue. Amazing. More broadly, the Republican Party has been decimated throughout Northern Virginia, with very few elected Republicans left in inner NoVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax), and not many in more exurban NoVA (Loudoun, Prince William) either. Heck, even Stafford County and Spotsylvania County went for Spanberger, with some other parts of exurban NoVA going from bright-red to pink. Amazing.

  • Video: “After Virginia Votes” Looks Back at 2025 VA GOV Campaign – Trump, Government Shutdown, Earle-Sears’ Bizarre Debate Behavior, Jones’ Texts, Messaging on Economy vs. “Obsessive” Focus on “Culture War Issues,” “I am speaking!” etc.

    Video: “After Virginia Votes” Looks Back at 2025 VA GOV Campaign – Trump, Government Shutdown, Earle-Sears’ Bizarre Debate Behavior, Jones’ Texts, Messaging on Economy vs. “Obsessive” Focus on “Culture War Issues,” “I am speaking!” etc.

    Last night was the traditional, post-election “After Virginia Votes” program (see video, below), put on by VPAP. To me, what’s been interesting about these events in the past is when the campaign representatives spoke more freely/frankly than they ever would (or could) have during the campaign. That way, we get some interesting insights into what was *really* happening, not the canned talking points that the campaigns spewed out during the campaign (about how their campaigns were totally focused on their messages, never deviated from their plans or were thrown off their games, were not worried or surprised, their polling never really moved much, their victories were the result of their own brilliance and not external factors – e.g.., a super-unpopular president in the White Houe, a government shutdown – which probably accounted for 80% of it, etc.). So with that…here are a few things that jumped out at me.

    • Spanberger campaign manager Samson Signori argued: “I think you saw Abigail Spanberger win because she was laser focused on lowering costs at a time when voters are tired of division and chaos and frankly tired of of of having to pay attention to politics every single day. In Abigail Spanberger, they saw a candidate who was steady, who was steadfast, and who was laser focused on the issues that matter most to voters – lowering costs, boosting the economy, keeping our community safe. And that’s why last Tuesday, you didn’t see just a landslide victory, but in my opinion, a coalition redefining victory.”
    • Republican Scott Weldon, filling in (at the last minute) for lead Earle-Sears strategist for Mark Harris, followed up on that: “taking what Sam has said as well, I think all of that kind of coalesced behind also a kind of a weak candidate in Winsome and kind of a poorly run campaign to kind of give them the victory that that we saw last week.”
    • On the controversy over John Reid, specifically Glenn Youngkin demanding that he drop out, Weldon said: “I tend to think that it was more of a distraction than it was any sort of major impetus [sic; he presumably meant impediment] to success for the campaign. I think it became kind of a stumbling point, but nothing that kind of really impacted the effort as they were getting going. I think they were having trouble getting going to begin with, and I think that was just something that kind of was more of a distraction from the…I think the campaign that should have been running up and running already.“
    • Signori argued “this was the most coordinated that Democrats have ever been in the Commonwealth.”
    • With regard to Trump, Signori said “I think one thing we did correctly on our campaign is we didn’t really focus on Trump; we focused on the consequences of Trump, not on his personality, but on his policies specifically when they impacted voters’ pocketbooks.”
    • On the Earle-Sears’ campaign’s erratic messaging, Weldon said “as you look kind of from the beginning of that the campaign on, there was really no clear message… they were trying to find the the message that was selling…they had a similar ad to what Donald Trump ran last year that I think kind of fell flat on the ‘they/them’…towards the end of the campaign and I think they stayed on that message for about a month. Similar on the on the bathroom issue. Which I think was kind of one of the things that where Abigail was head and shoulders kind of above, where you had a focus on cost of living, healthcare, you know, issues that were really percolating in people’s minds, especially up here in Northern Virginia where you had a government shutdown in the midst as well.”
    • Weldon added an interesting point: “Donald Trump never gave a fullthroated endorsement. The Republican Party has become the party of low-propensity turnout, and the higher the turnout becomes, the better the Republican Party does. So in this instance where you have kind of an unmotivated low-propensity Republican base, you’ve got to find a way to motivate them to show up. And I think…in terms of the message they were putting out, that trying to emulate some of the messaging that Donald Trump did. But as we’ve kind of learned, Donald Trump’s the only person that can do that.” Also, Earle-Sears “trying to to walk that tight rope is very difficult, especially in this environment where, you know, if you’re not in in full alignment with Trump, it can be damaging to you to the base.”
    • Signori: “We would invoke Trump and speak out against Trump whenever he did anything that impacted Virginians’ daily lives. DOGE federal workforce cuts, especially hitting Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads; the gutting of healthcare, which drove up premiums for Virginians, and also closed, I think it’s three rural health clinics out in Southwest [Virginia]…so for us, it was really any time that Trump was affecting Virginians’ pocketbooks was the time that we were going to speak out against the consequences of him.”
    • Signori: “I think if it’s a coalition that is headed up by people like Abigail Spanberger – focused, pragmatic, steady leaders who are focused on the issues that matter most to Virginians – if that’s the kind of leadership and the kind of example that’s at the forefront of our politics, I absolutely think that’s a coalition can that can last.”
    • Weldon: “I think one of her best commercials was the parental rights ad that [Earle-Sears] put out with the woman face to camera testimonial ad. it was one of the best I think pieces of media that she did the entire campaign. That being said, I also think that there was…a misplaced kind of focus where the entire energy of your campaign could have been and should have been focused on the issues that matter to voters. That’s your pocketbook...we don’t need to relitigate the 2021 campaign again or anything out, you know, 2024, you’re in a new environment. You need to kind of adapt to it. “
    • Signori: “I think Abigail was always consistent on where she stood on this issue [transgender kids] from the beginning of the campaign to the end. I believe that the Sears campaign and Republicans broadly got way ahead of their skis on culture war issues. They ran campaigns relentlessly focused on obsessively focused on culture wars, entirely devoid of any economic argument and any argument about how they’re going to make lives truly better for Virginians. But we knew that Sears and and her campaign were going to run these culture war, gender isssue style attack ads on Abigail. And we had multiple ads cut, ad tested, ready to go. And I think that first attack ad that you saw the GOP put out we had a response up in about 2 hours...We knew that the…Republican opponent was going to come after and try to smear us specifically on the culture war issues. So, we laid down a solid foundation that Abigail is a former federal law enforcement officer, former CIA case officer, mother to three girls who was relentlessly focused on lowering costs and making our communities safe. So, I think that when Sears rolled out those culture war ads, they largely fell on deaf ears.”
    • Weldon on why Republicans released the Jones’ texts “oppo” when they did, after early voting started: ” I think they made the kind of strategic decision that those messages were going to be released to try and maximize the length that they could keep that message moving…I think it was, like I said, the first time that the ticket really had some enthusiasm behind it, whether it was, you know, anti-Jones because even if you saw the the Winsome campaign shifted their messaging, not against Abigail anymore. That wasn’t working as well. So, they shifted more on the Jay Jones message and a couple other, you know, ancillary pieces around that…”
    • Signori: “…by and large from the time that the scandal came out to the end of the campaign, we saw very little movement internally on our end, just from a polling perspective…”
    • Weldon on Earle-Sears’ behavior at the debate: “I think to the public watching it, it was not something that was appealing to anybody. To many people watching it, I don’t think they appreciated that tactic. I don’t think it was good. But it gave Winsome the best, I think, ad that she had the entire campaign…but I don’t think the tactic itself is very impactful or helpful…”
    • Signori: “…our strategy was that if our opponent was going to be disrespectful on the debate stage and interrupt or do anything of the sort that we wouldn’t follow her down that path. And we wanted to have a debate that was focused solely on the issues…”
    • Weldon, asked whether the Earle-Sears’ debate strategy was worth it: “Last Tuesday is a pretty good indication of that.”
    • Signori on the “I am speaking” messaging: “If a voter begins to tire of it, that’s right when our message is breaking through in our opinion. But…one of the things that I was really proud of with that specific ad, and this was part of the strategy that we put together, is we wanted to make something that not only resonated and became thematic in the paid media capacity, but could also expand outside of just paid media into social media and and kind of into political culture in Virginia…and we saw that play out.”
    • Signori on the government shutdown’s impact on the campaign: “for us, the government shutdown was unfortunately proof of the exact problem that we were trying to highlight and talk about in our campaign.”
    • On candidate access, Weldon said: “I think that there’s a piece of this that was…we’ll call it the risk/reward. You know, is it worth putting yourself out there to have an issue like President Biden did last year…like the risk of being out in front of a camera, in front of an audience, in front of people…and honestly like especially with what we saw in the Charlie Kirk shooting. I think there’s a lot of fear in candidates and there’s death threats and everything out there. So I think you take the two things out there that people are seeing from a high level whether it’s the risk/reward. So I think they they look at this as is it worth being out there politically and then do I feel safe being there as well…Is it worth speaking when it doesn’t improve the sound of silence?” 
    • On the redistricting amendment, Weldon said it offers Republicans an opportunity politically speaking. Signori said “I know Dems in the State House and Senate wanted to preserve optionality. So they took that vote before the Tuesday election. I’ve been in close touch with a lot of the leadership in the House and Senate to sort of see how things come together. I think there’s more information to come and we’ll have to see.”
    • Asked, “Is Virginia Blue,” Weldon said “Yes.” Signori said “I think Virginia has been and remains to be purple…we were the only race in the nation to actually flip a seat from red to blue on Tuesday nationwide. And I think that this remains a battleground state, one that Abigail Spanberger just won quite handily.”

    (Also, funniest line of the debate: as it ended, Weldon joked, “I’m done speaking!”)

  • 12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday

    12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday

    So why did Abigail Spanberger defeat Winsome Earle-Sears by nearly 15 points this past Tuesday? A bunch of reasons, of course, although I’ve definitely  Let’s start by looking at the exit poll data:

    According to NBC News’ exit polling:

    • 97% of those who had voted for Kamala Harris last November voted for Spanberger this time around.
    • 93% of those who had voted for Donald Trump last November voted for Earle-Sears this time around.
    • “Spanberger also won over groups that are typically less locked-in. Moderates, independent voters and those who have unfavorable views of both major parties all broke for Spanberger over Earle-Sears. Among those who did not vote in 2024, Spanberger beat Earle-Sears by nearly double digits.” (57% went for Spanberger and 43% for Earle-Sears)
    • With regard to the Earle-Sears’ campaign’s slogan, “Let’s Keep a Good Thing Going,” the problem is that only 35% of Virginia voters were satisfied or enthusiastic about the direction of the country, with 63% “angry/dissatisfied.”
    • Another important factor: “In Virginia, where the government shutdown and federal government cuts affected many families this year, 6 in 10 said federal government cuts this year affected their families’ finances a lot (20%) or a little (39%).”

    According to CBS News exit polling:

    • 54% of Virginia voters said Trump was a factor in their vote while 45% said Trump wasn’t a factor. Of course, some voters might have come out to SUPPORT Trump, with others OPPOSING Trump.
    • “Economic issues also loomed large in the Democratic wins in the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia… In Virginia, those ‘economy’ voters voted for Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears by more than 20 points.”
    • “Women voted in big numbers for the women Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey. Sherrill and Spanberger’s margins with women were far larger than Kamala Harris’ were nationally in 2024.”
    • “Independents were key, too. They swung toward Spanberger in Virginia, after Glenn Youngkin won them in 2021.”

    According to CNN’s exit polling:

    • “In Virginia, Spanberger’s victory in the governor’s race was powered in significant part by unhappiness with the state of the nation. A majority of voters said they disapproved of Trump — and roughly 9 in 10 of those voters supported Spanberger over her rival, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.”
    • “While about half of voters said that societal support for transgender rights has gone too far, more than one-fifth in that group still support Spanberger over Earle-Sears, who made attacks on transgender rights a cornerstone of her campaign.”
    • “By contrast, just over half of voters also say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far — and Spanberger won more than 9 in 10 of them.”
    • “Spanberger won among voters who identify as political independents — a group that makes up roughly a third of this year’s electorate — and among female voters, voters with college degrees and the majority of voters in the state who say abortion should be legal in most or all cases.”
    • “She also notched a significant advantage among voters from households where someone worked this year as a federal employee or was employed as a federal contractor.”
    • 47% said Trump wasn’t a factor in their vote, but of the remainder, 37% said one reason for their vote was to oppose Trump, compared to just 15% who said it was to support Trump. And the CNN exit poll had Trump’s approval rating in Virginia at just 41%-56%.

    According to ABC News’ exit polling, the keys to Spanberger’s big win included:

    • The economy: “Nearly half of Virginia voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the commonwealth, and they supported Spanberger by more than 20 percentage points, according to ABC News exit polling.”
    • Government workers: “Roughly 6 in 10 said that federal government cuts affected their family’s finances; and by a more than 2-1 margin, they supported Spanberger over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.”
    • Immigration: “Over half of Virginia voters said that the President Donald Trump’s administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have “gone too far,” and over 9 in 10 of them voted for Spanberger.”
    • Trump: “Roughly half of Virginia voters strongly disapproved of Trump and almost all of them supported Spanberger.”
    • Race: “Exit polls found that roughly 9 in 10 Black voters supported Spanberger, along with about two-thirds of Hispanic/Latino voters and about 8 in 10 Asian voters. A slim majority of white voters supported Earle-Sears.”
    • Again, with regard to the Earle-Sears’ campaign’s tone-deaf slogan, “Let’s Keep a Good Thing Going,” the problem for Earle-Sears was that “about two-thirds of Virginia voters said they are either dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the country today,” and they went overwhelmingly for Spanberger.

    So with all that in mind, see below for my views on why Spanberger won big (15 points; the largest in modern Virginia history for a Democrat, with only Bob McDonnell’s 17-point win in 2009 surpassing it…for decades) correspond with a lot of what the exit polls found. I’d rank a dozen of the reasons, in roughly descending order, as follows.

    1. First and foremost, since 1977, Virginia almost always has gone opposite of the party in the White House. Thus, in 2009, one year after Barack Obama won in a landslide, including winning Virginia by 6 points, Republican Bob McDonnell won the governor’s race by a massive 17-point margin. Is that because McDonnell ran such a brilliant campaign, and/or Creigh Deeds ran a horrible campaign? I mean, McDonnell did run a solid campaign – albeit a dishonest one, falsely claiming that he was some sort of suburban moderate who was “Bob’s for Jobs,” not the guy who was close with Pat Robertson and who was so far right he earned the nickname “Taliban Bob.” But I mean, c’mon, that was a 23-point swing from Obama the year before, and there’s no way in hell that a strong campaign could have accounted for all (or even most) of that. Instead, it was the structural factor of Virginia going opposite the party in the White House. Also, recall that in 2009, the economy was in the “Great Recession,” the “Tea Party” was raging, etc. So basically, ANY Republican on the ballot for governor that year would have won, the only question is the margin really.  Also note that in 2017, Ralph Northam won by 9 points the year after Trump won the White House. And in 2021, Glenn Youngkin won by 2 points the year after Joe Biden won the White House – including Virginia by 10 points. Sensing a pattern here?
    2. Trump was very unpopular in Virginia. At somewhere around 41% approval and 56% disapproval, Trump was simply not going to be a net asset to Virginia Republicans this year. Just as George W. Bush wasn’t a net asset to the Jerry Kilgore campaign in 2005, or the other examples mentioned above. So for Virginia Republicans, the conundrum was that to fire up their voters, they needed Trump to be enthusiastically and energetically involved in helping their ticket, but the problem is, that would have likely angered a lot more voters who disapprove of Trump. So, basically, Republicans had no great options there.
    3. DOGE, consumer sentiment, inflation, the economy, the government shutdown, etc.: To sum it up, as Sam Shirazi calls it, “Federal Fallout” was NOT favorable to Virginia Republicans this year, whether we’re talking about the DOGE cuts, the constant abuse of the federal workforce by the Trump administration, consumer sentiment plummeting, tariffs/inflation/the cost of living, the lengthy government shutdown, etc. That’s just a horrible environment to be running in if you’re the party in power, which Republicans most definitely are, controlling all three branches of the federal government.
    4. Virginia has been trending “blue” for years. The last time Virginia went for the Republican presidential nominee was in 2004; since then, it’s gone Democratic in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024. Also, of course, both our US Senators are Democratic, while the US House delegation is 6-5 Democratic. And our State Senate is 21-19 Democratic, while the House of Delegates is 51-49 Democratic, soon to be 64-36 Democratic. At the local level, Northern Virginia is overwhelmingly blue at this point, as is the Richmond area…and Hampton Roads to a large extent. Which means that the only way Republicans can win statewide is to rack up HUGE margins in rural/red areas, while counting on anemic turnout in the “urban/suburban crescent” (NoVA-Richmond area-Hampton Roads). That’s just a really tall order, and it’s not getting any easier for Republicans as time goes by…
    5. Trump was clearly not a fan of Earle-Sears, regardless. Recall that in 2022, following the midterm elections, Earle-Sears had laid into Trump, arguing that Trump was “sanctimonious” and “bailed on us,” implying that he was racist for calling Mitch McConnell’s wife “Coco Chow Chow or something,” saying she didn’t “join the Trump Party, I joined the Republican Party,” etc. Sears even called for Trump to “leave the political stage.”  In response, Trump said he “never felt good about Winsome Sears,” that he “always thought she was a phony,” etc. Also chiming in at that time was VA State Senator Amanda Chase (R), a huge Trump fanatic, who ripped Earle-Sears for her “betrayal of Donald Trump,” going “from a hero to a zero,” etc. And a Trump spokesperson quoted by the Washington Post stated that “Her comments are a slap to the face to all of the grassroots Republicans that worked so hard to get her elected. They won’t forget this and there will be a reckoning. There always is in politics.” So, three years later, it looks like that reckoning has come – in part because of Trump being unpopular, in part because Trump voters weren’t excited about Earle-Sears, etc?
    6. Earle-Sears had no serious economic message, while Spanberger talked a lot about the economy. As Spanberger’s campaign argues, she focused “like a laser” (or whatever the preferred cliche is) on Trump/DOGE job cuts, inflation, and other “kitchen-table” concerns, while Earle-Sears barely talked about any of that, instead mostly ranting about trans kids in locker rooms and on sports teams (which very few Virginians ranked as a top issue); “criminal illegal immigrants” (again, if anything, the exit polling found that “just over half of voters also say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far — and Spanberger won more than 9 in 10 of them”); attempting (mostly without much/any success) to tie Spanberger to Jay Jones’ offensive text messages; attempting, laughably, to tie Spanberger to Nancy Pelosi in some sort of relevant (and bad) way; etc.
    7. Earle-Sears was outspent heavily. According to VPAP, Spanberger outraised Earle-Sears by $25 million (!) — $62 million to $37 million – through the 12th day before the election. Going back to 2001, the only other elections with such big gaps were in 2001, when Mark Warner outspent Mark Earley by $15 million, and in 2013, when Terry McAuliffe outspent Ken Cuccinelli by $21 million. Note that both Warner and McAuliffe won, including McAuliffe bucking the historic trend (since 1977) of Virginia going opposite the party in the White House. Now, of course, money isn’t everything, but if you can’t communicate with voters, it does tend to put you at a disadvantage. Of course, as mentioned above, Earle-Sears didn’t have a particularly coherent or effective message, so even when she got more money in the closing days of the campaign, it’s doubtful whether it helped her; hell, maybe it hurt her the more voters saw her noxious, nasty, weird messaging???
    8. Making matters worse for Earle-Sears, Republicans in general were heavily outspent in Virginia this election cycle. According to VPAP, in addition to the aforementioned cash advantage Spanberger had over Earle-Sears, Virginia House Democrats also FAR outraised Virginia House Republican candidates; I mean, we’re talking $66 million to $26 million – a massive $40 million (!) advantage for Virginia House Democrats. Add in Ghazala Hashmi’s big cash advantage over John Reid, and Republicans were pretty much swamped in terms of money, with the exception of Jason Miyares outraising Jay Jones…and that was the closest race, with Jones “underperforming” Spanberger by 9 points. Meanwhile, in the House of Delegates, Democrat picked up a whopping 13 seats – and that presumably had a positive, synergistic effect on the governor’s race.
    9. Spanberger was a strong candidate with a well-run campaign. How much do campaigns matter? I mean, Mikie Sherrill did about the same in New Jersey as Spanberger did in Virginia, so one could argue that it’s the political environment a lot more than the campaigns. But to the extent campaigns matter, Spanberger’s was competent, solid, disciplined, difficult if not impossible to push off message, etc. It was also, as noted above, much better funded than the Earle-Sears campaign. And it generally focused on the right messaging, including economics, but also defining Earle-Sears as…well, kinda crazy, really, with the now-infamous “I AM SPEAKING!” clip running at the start of a LOT of Spanberger’s advertising. Did that messaging break thorugh? It sure seems like it, if nothing else from anecdotal evidence of people joking about it, talking about it, etc.
    10. Earle-Sears, in contrast, wasn’t a strong candidate. In addition to being heavily outspent, as noted above, Earle-Sears simply wasn’t very popular. For instance, in the WaPo/Schar poll in late October, Earle-Sears had a 37% favorable rating vs. a 44% unfavorable rating (minus 7 points), while Spanberger was at 51% favorable vs. 36% unfavorable (+15 points). Not great for Earle-Sears. And it didn’t seem to get any better as Earle-Sears’ advertising ramped up, with her net favorable ratings in that WaPo/Schar poll going from minus 4 (38%-42%) in late September to minus 7 (37%-44%) in late October. Besides that, I’d point out that Earle-Sears mostly stuck to the right-wing media bubble, and when she DID venture out to the more “mainstream” media, it didn’t go well (e.g., see this example). Earle-Sears also made some serious unforced errors, like when she mixed up the Hokies and Wahoos. Also, I’d argue that her debate performance, in which she aggressively confronted Spanberger, talked over her constantly – and focused heavily on trans kids in locker rooms/on sports teams, the Jones text messages (which Earle-Sears never really was able to hurt Spanberger with), etc. – did nothing to help her with swing voters, and probably was offputting to many moderate voters.
    11. Youngkin wasn’t particularly popular. After winning the governorship in November 2021 by just two points, not impressive when an increasingly unpopular Democrat was in the White House, Youngkin’s approval rating wasn’t great (e.g., according to the November 1 State Navigate poll, which basically NAILED the results for governor, LG and AG, Youngkin’s approval is “almost dead even…underwater by less than a tenth of a percentage point.” That would put Youngkin at the worst net approval rating of any modern Virginia governor at this point in his term. Oh, and in another poll (YouGov) which nailed the governor’s race, Youngkin’s approval rating was just 47%-47%; again, no coattails for his desired successor. In stark contrast, think about the fact that when then-LG Tim Kaine was running for governor in 2005, then-Gov. Mark Warner had astronomical approval ratings, above 70% and even close to 80% in some polls. So while Youngkin might not have been a major drag on Earle-Sears, he certainly didn’t have the type of popularity that would boost him.
    12. Youngkin had few major, positive accomplishments to point to, nor did Earle-Sears. I mean, think about it; can you name some major, positive accomplishments by Youngkin or Earle-Sears? Yes, Youngkin brought some business to Virginia (that had nothing to do with the LG), but Virginia also got nailed by DOGE, etc, saw its business ranking slump, etc. Other than that, seriously, was there anything substantive that Youngkin and Earle-Sears could point to, that they actually had something to do with and that would resonate with voters? Uhhhh…hmmmm…thoughts? LOL

    So those are a dozen reasons why, I’d argue, Spanberger won – and won as big as she did. What do you think? Any other big factors that you’d point to?

  • Thursday News: FAA May Have to Cut Flights; 2025 Elections “illuminate a nightmare scenario” for GOP; “Trump enters his lame duck era,” “goes on [unhinged] posting frenzy”; “Trump’s unpopular, harmful policies fueled Democratic wins, says Virginia’s Ghazala Hashmi”

    Thursday News: FAA May Have to Cut Flights; 2025 Elections “illuminate a nightmare scenario” for GOP; “Trump enters his lame duck era,” “goes on [unhinged] posting frenzy”; “Trump’s unpopular, harmful policies fueled Democratic wins, says Virginia’s Ghazala Hashmi”

    by Lowell

    Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Thursday, November 6.

  • Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Elections November 2025

    Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Elections November 2025

    Here are a few “winners” and “losers” that I believe are worth highlighting from Tuesday’s elections. Note that this list isn’t even close to comprehensive – nor is it intended to be (in part because it could go on for days…and at some point, enough is enough, lol!) – so please add “winners” and “losers” of your own in the comments section. By the way, it’s important to point out that you can be a “winner” even if you’re a right-wing Republican (e.g., McDonnell and Cuccinelli in 2009 were huge “winners,” even though they completely suck!) or whatever, and that you can be a “loser” even if you’re my favorite Democrat in the world, because in this context “winner” and “loser” is all about whether someone “won” or “lost” politically in this election cycle, not whether that makes me happy or not or whether it’s normatively a “good” or “bad” thing, per se.  With that…on to the “Winners”/”Mixed”/”Losers” from the June 17 Virginia primaries.

    P.S. I also asked several Virginia Democratic political insiders for their “winners and losers” suggestions (almost all of which are included, below, without attribution to the source)…some of which overlapped with mine. Thanks to everyone who contributed to this list! 🙂

    Winners

    1. Abigail Spanberger/her campaign: She won a huge victory last night, winning the most votes of any governor candidate in Virginia history, also the widest margin of victory for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in modern Virginia history, and will be the first female governor in Virginia history. Amazing/impressive. Just looking at the jurisdictions Spanberger won gives an indication of the scope and breadth of her win: Loudoun County by 29 points (Terry McAuliffe only won it by 11 points four years ago); Fairfax County by 47 points, Albemarle by 40 points, Henrico County by 38 points, Prince William County by 34 points, Chesterfield County by 17 points, Virginia Beach by 11 points, Stafford County by 11 points, Spotsylvania County by 2 points, Chesapeake by 13 points, etc. She also massively outraised Winsome Earle-Sears. And, bottom line, as a top Democratic strategist once told me, “when you win, you’re a genius; when you lose, you’re an idiot.” So right now, Spanberger’s campaign is a bunch of geniuses, even if a lot of their margin of victory had to do with a highly unpopular Republican in the White House (and Virginia almost always going opposite of that), DOGE, federal furloughs/RIFs, etc. Still, the fact is, Spanberger has now won a bunch of tough races – VA07 Democratic primary in June 2018, VA07 election against Dave Brat in November 2018, VA07 again in 2020 and 2022; and now the Virginia governor’s election by a huge margin.  So clearly, Spanberger’s doing something(s) right! [On a related note, great work by Spanberger senior strategist Jake Rubenstein, who suffered a crushing loss four years ago with Terry McAuliffe, but this time around, worked his butt off and helped Abigail Spanberger to a huge win last night; nice job, congratulations/mazel tov!)
    2. VA Speaker Don Scott: Having become the first Black Virginia Speaker in history just two years ago, Don Scott will now have a huge majority in the House of Delegates to work with, going from a bare majority (51-49) to a near-supermajority (64-36). And while last night’s many Democratic wins in the House of Delegates were the result of several major factors, Speaker Scott’s hard work, top-notch communications/messaging, excellent candidate recruitment and massive fundraising all played huge roles. Great work, and very much looking forward to seeing the House of Delegates churn out great legislation!
    3.  Del. Dan Helmer: As VA House Democratic campaign chair, Helmer deserves MAJOR credit – along with Speaker Scott, as noted above – for last night’s huge Democratic gains in the House of Delegates. Just to review; Helmer and his team are responsible for Democrats flipping 13 (!!!) Republican-held seats – in HD22 (Elizabeth Guzman over Republican Del. Ian Lovejoy), HD30 (John McAuliff over Republican Del. Geary Higgins), HD41 (Lily Franklin over Republican Del. Chris Obenshain), HD57 (May Nivar over Republican Del. David Owen), HD64 (Stacey Carroll over Republican Del. Paul Milde), HD66 (Nicole Cole over Republican Del. Bobby Orrock), HD69 (Mark Downey over Republican Del. Chad Green), HD71 (Jessica Anderson over Republican Del. Amanda Batten), HD73 (Leslie Mehta over Republican Del. Mark Earley Jr.), HD75 (Lindsey Dougherty over Republican Del. Carrie Coyner), HD82 (Kimberly Pope Adams over Republican Del. Kim Taylor), HD86 (Virgil Thornton over Del. AC Cordoza) and HD89 (Karen Carnegie over Republican Mike Lamonea). Wow. Just to put this in perspective, by the way, back in November 2017, Democrats flipped 15 Republican-held seats, all of which had been won by Hillary Clinton, thus were relatively “low-hanging fruit”; this time, Democrats flipped 13 much tougher districts…definitely NOT “low-hanging fruit” by any means. In other words, the “degree of difficulty” was harder this time, yet Democrats ended up picking up nearly as many seats (13 seats) as they did in 2017 (15 seats). Amazing.
    4. Democrats who stepped up to run for House of Delegates against incumbent Republicans: See that list above for some of the Democrats who stepped up to run against incumbent Republican delegates, and in those 13 cases, won!  But also, thanks to EVERY Democrat who stepped up to run, even in the deep-red districts, and make the case against the tremendous damage that MAGA Republicans are doing to our country. But yeah, those 13 Democrats, listed in item #3, who flipped Republican-held seats are HUGE winners. Congratulations, delegates-elect!
    5. Ghazala Hashmi/her campaign: Hashmi won by nearly 11 points last night, which is better than almost any of the polling suggested – and, in short, just a huge win for Hashmi. So, just six years after jumping into politics and winning a State Senate seat, Hashmi has now been elected Lt. Governor of Virginia. Not bad! Also, as a contributor to this list in June pointed out, “There’s also something to be said for the historic nature of Hashmi’s win. She’s a thoughtful legislator who does her homework- isn’t terribly flashy. IMO that’s a huge win for democracy and voters rewarding that brand of leadership.” And there’s also very much something to be said about Hashmi becoming the first Muslim and first Asian American elected to statewide office in Virginia, also apparently the first Muslim woman to win a statewide office anywhere in the United States (!). Even better, Hashmi’s victory comes after some really nasty/vicious Islamophobia and xenophobia aimed her way, disgustingly, by Virginia Republicans. So…yeah, HUGE win for Hashmi!
    6. Women, candidates of color: In addition to electing Virginia’s first female governor, first Muslim/South Asian Lt. Governor, and first Black Attorney General, last night Democrats elected a highly diverse slate of candidates to the House of Delegates (see item #3, above – of those 13 pickups, 11 are women, people of color or both. (In stark contrast, the VA House GOP caucus – what’s left of it – is going to be overwhelmingly white and male…and very right wing).
    7. Jay Jones/his campaign: It was quite a path to get there, but still, in the end he *won*, by 6 points no less, which makes him a “winner” by definition. Of course, one could argue that he ran almost 9 points behind Abigail Spanberger and was swept along by her huge win. Still, though, a win’s a win, especially given that a few weeks ago, a lot of people were writing off Jones’ political prospects. (On a related note, Tim Kaine’s a “Winner” for having stuck by Jay Jones when almost nobody else was doing so?)
    8. Del. Mike Jones: Ghazala Hashmi wining the LG race means that she’ll be stepping down by early January, which in turn will mean a special election for her State Senate seat. I’m hearing that Hashmi supports Del. Mike Jones to succeed her, which presumably would help make him the favorite for that State Senate seat.
    9.   Richmond area/Hampton Roads: Abigail Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi are both from the Richmond area; Jay Jones is from Norfolk; Don Scott is from Portsmouth; also Louise Lucas and Mamie Locke are from Hampton Roads. And those areas are now, in many ways, the centers of political power in Virginia (of course, Northern Virginia maintains major economic power, and plenty of political clout, as well…but it’s striking how much power is centered on people from the Richmond areas and Hampton Roads).
    10. DLCC: They invested heavily in Virginia House of Delegates Democrats, and it paid off.  Great work!
    11. DCCC: They’ve got to be smiling this morning, thinking about the prospects in Virginia next year for US House – VA02, VA01, maybe VA05 and VA06 as well depending on redistricting – if the political environment is anything like what it was this election.
    12. Sen. Mark Warner: He’s also got to be smiling this morning, for a couple reasons: a) he’s on the ballot in 2026, and as noted above, if the political environment next fall is anything like it was this fall, Warner should cruise to reelection; b) the crushing losses for Virginia Republicans last night certainly don’t enhance Glenn Youngkin’s prospects as a potential US Senate candidate against Warner. Quite the contrary, actually, as Youngkin campaigned hard for Virginia Republicans and got his butt kicked (also, his approval ratings are “meh” at best).
    13. Hakeem Jeffries: Another Democrat who must be encouraged by yesterday’s Virginia election results has got to be House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, whose prospects for becoming Speaker of the House just went up a few notches…in part due to national sentiments, but also specifically due to Virginia redistricting (which clearly didn’t hurt Democrats last night at all, by the way) and the potential for 2 or 3 more Democratic seats coming from Virginia next November.
    14.  VA Senate GOP Leader Ryan McDougle: It’s kind of weird to put any Republican in the “Winners” column after last night’s disaster for their party, but it was suggested to me by one of my sources that McDougle “wins” by being one of the last Republicans left standing (“the last redoubt”) in Virginia’s state government. I’m kinda skeptical, but I can see the argument. Of course, McDougle’s probably just thankful that the State Senate wasn’t on the ballot this election instead of in 2027, because if it had been on the ballot this election, most likely the partisan makeup would now be more like 25-15 or 26-14 Democratic instead of 21-19 Democratic.
    15.  Reps. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07) and Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10). Not that either was in much political jeopardy next year, regardless, but if the midterm elections are anything like the November 2025 elections in terms of the political environment, both Vindman and Subramanyam should cruise to victory. Throw in the possibility of Democratic-friendly redistricting, which clearly did NOT cause a backlash by voters yesterday, and…voila, these two guys are in the “Winners” category for sure!
    16. Potential Democratic nominees in VA01, VA02, VA05, VA06: As per item #14, the combination of a blue-friendly political environment PLUS the possbility (likelihood?) of Democratic-friendly redistricting next year means that whoever wins the Democratic nomination in VA01, VA02 (Elaine Luria if she decides to run, as Brandon Jarvis reported earlier today), VA05 and maybe even VA06 stands a good chance of winning next year. On a related note, I hear that Spanberger narrowly won VA01 as it’s currently drawn…and presumably she won VA02 as well.
    17. [UPDATED 11/6] – Stafford County and Prince William County Democrats: Wow, missed this the other day, but it’s really impressive in Prince William County (“George Stewart, the Democratic nominee for the Gainesville supervisor’s seat, pulled off a major upset Tuesday night, winning the Republican-leaning district by a slim margin. Stewart, 57, defeated Republican Patrick Harders, 51, with 50.47% of the vote, according to still-unofficial results from the Virginia Department of Elections.”).  And in Stafford County, which Youngkin won by 11 points in 2021: “The Stafford County Board of Supervisors will have a Democratic majority in January when two new representatives are seated, according to unofficial results posted by the Virginia Public Access Project on Tuesday night. Those new faces are Maya Guy in the Aquia District and Kecia Evans in the Falmouth District. They will join two incumbent Democrats: Supervisor Pamela Yeung, who was re-elected Tuesday, and board Vice Chairwoman Tinesha Allen, who was not up for election.” Wow!
    18. UPDATE 11/7: Another huge winner was former President Barack Obama, who campaigned the final Saturday before the election in Virginia and New Jersey, and…yep, both Abigail Spanberger and Mike Sherrill won HUGE.  So thank you, Barack Obama, for all you did and all you continue to do for our country!
    19. UPDATE 11/8: Thanks to “Momma Spanberger,” Eileen Davis, for reminding us (on NetworkNOVA’s post-election Friday Power Lunch) all about the amazing work of Kim Drew Wright (who passed away, tragically, about 1 1/2 years ago) with “Liberal Women of Chesterfield County.” As Davis said: “Chesterfield really, man, I tell you, I had Kim Drew Wright right on my shoulder all night. She was with me. She really did because the machine that she developed in Chesterfield showed up. It still lives. It still lives…as far as I’m concerned, she’s our she’s our muse, guardian angel and Abby and her were great friends and it really…she’s with us every day.” Thank you Kim Drew Wright a huge “Winner” forever!

    Mixed

    1. Clean Virginia: They went all-in for Jay Jones – and he won – in the Democratic primary last spring (although they didn’t contribute to him significantly post-primary). They also heavily supported Ghazala Hashmi – and she won. And they supported Abigail Spanberger and several Democratic House of Delegates candidates (Lily Franklin, Leslie Mehta, Kimberly Pope Adams, John McAuliff, Karen Carnegie, Mark Downey, Virgil Thornton, Elizabeth Guzman) – all of whom won. So why isn’t Clean Virginia in the “Winners” category? Simply because two incumbent delegates they supported heavily (and inexplicably), Republicans Carrie Coyner and Amanda Batten, both lost last night. Still, on balance, Clean Virginia was more “winner” than “loser” – so maybe “high mixed?” LOL
    2. Elections Polls/Prognosticators: See here for some of the best and worst among the pollsters and prognosticators. Great job by State Navigate, for instance (their  polling was spot-on, and their website last night, including their version of the elections “needle,” was VERY helpful!); not so much by Roanoke College, VCU, CNU/Wason, etc.
    3. Voter Turnout: According to VPAP, as of 2:30 pm today, about 3.3 million Virginians voted in this election, which as far as I’m aware (also, see these stats) is the highest turnout ever in a statewide, non-federal election in Virginia. So that’s the good news. The less-than-good news is that that still only represents something like half of Virginia registered voters, which – depending on how you look at it – is pretty lame. Of course, turnout yesterday was particularly weak in deep-red parts of the state, so there’s that as well…

    Losers

    1. Donald Trump: He can lash out, make excuses, etc., but the bottom line is that voters largely reacted to him – and VERY negatively at that. As CNN’s exit polls found, for instance: “In Virginia, New Jersey and California, more than half of the electorate sees their vote as sending a message to Trump. That message, largely one of opposition, helped to propel Democratic gubernatorial wins by Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. In California, it helped seal support for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s push to redraw the state’s congressional maps.” Bottom line, as CNN says, “Voters in key 2025 races largely disapprove of President Trump, exit polls show.” Which makes Trump a huge loser, even if he hates having that word applied to him more than almost anything else…haha.
    2. Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) and Rob Wittman (R-VA01): In short, the results last night should have them freaking out, for a bunch of reasons. For Kiggans, note that Virginia Beach makes up 57% of VA02, and…yep, Abigail Spanberger WON Virginia Beach last night, by a 10-point (55%-45%) margin no less! I also hear that Spanberger narrowly won VA01, as it’s currently drawn, which has got to have Wittman sweating. Plus, Democratic-friendly redistricting is possible/likely next year, which will make VA01 and VA02 even LESS friendly to Wittman and Kiggans. So…yeah, they’re kinda screwed?
    3. Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05): This is a redder district than VA01 or VA02, but if there’s Democratic-friendly redistricting and if the political environment next fall is similar (or worse for Republicans) than this fall, then McGuire could be in deep trouble. McGuire’s also on the “Losers” list because he campaigned HARD for Winsome Earle-Sears, and…she lost badly.
    4. VA GOP/Chair Mark Peake: As of January 2026, the VA GOP will face a situation with Democrats as governor, LG, and AG; a House of Delegats in which they have only 36 out of 100 seats (ergo, next to no power); zero US Senators; a State Senate controlled by Democrats; and several of their incumbent US House members in serious political jeopardy next year. None of which is exactly going to engender (bad pun alert!) “Peake” excitement for Virginia Republicans! Anyway, former VA GOP Chair Rich Anderson must be happy he got the hell outta there before this latest disaster.
    5. Terry Kilgore: With former VA House GOP Leader Todd Gilbert heading (very briefly) into the Trump administration, Kilgore became VA House GOP leader, hoping to pick up a couple seats and become Speaker of the House. Except…nope, it didn’t quite work out as planned, with Kilgore’s caucus getting utterly annihilated last night, and with Kilgore facing the situation that David Toscano used to face with VA House Democrats, namely being in the small minority and effectively powerless. Also, good luck raising money, recruiting candidates, etc…
    6. Winsome Earle-Sears/her campaign team: I mean, what the hell were they even doing? They actually thought that talking constantly, obsessively about where people go to the bathroom (Speaker Don Scott a couple weeks ago referred to Earle-Sears and the VA GOP as the “pee-and-poop caucus” LOL), also the miniscule number of trans kids playing on K-12 sports teams (an even more miniscule number, basically zero, are so good that they skew the competition), and constantly bashing trans people was smart politics? And Winsome Earle-Sears actually thought that loudly/rudely talking over Abigail Spanberger in their one televised debate was going to cause voters to flock to her? Plus, Earle-Sears’ appearances outside the right-wing media bubble mostly didn’t go well, and she kept giving material to Democrats for them to use (e.g., that classic “I AM SPEAKING!” clip, lol). Anyway…as one person from out of state asked me, baffled, the other day, what on earth were Virginia Republicans thinking when they nominated Earle-Sears as their gubernatorial candidate? Did they have a death wish or something? But sure, keep doing that, Virginia Republicans – like PLEASE nominate Bryce Reeves for US Senate next year, that would be an *awesome* idea for sure, hahahahaha.
    7. Glenn Youngkin: Campaigned hard for Winsome Earle-Sears, donated nearly $750k to her campaign, spewed out insanity on her behalf, and…she got crushed, along with the rest of the VA GOP ticket, up and down the ballot.  So Youngkin ends his four years as governor with minimal accomplishments, having done a lot of damage to Virginia, and with among the lowest approval ratings of any Virginia governor at this point in their terms going back historically. Youngkin hopes to take this debacle nationally, either with a run for US Senate next year or for president in 2028? I mean, that was already a long shot, but after last night’s VA GOP meltdown (plus the fact that he lost the House of Delegates in 2023), what argument can he possibly make to Republican voters regarding his political chops? Uhhh…
    8. Jason Miyares/his campaign team: If there was ONE Republican candidate a lot of analysts/prognosticators expected to win this cycle, it was Jason Miyares post-Jones-texting scandal. And yet, somehow or other, Miyares – despite massively outspending Jones down the home stretch, dominating on the airwaves, etc. – ended up losing …by six points no less. So now what for Miyares, after arguably being one of the worst Attorneys General in Virginia history (VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell and Sen. Jennifer Boysko really laid it out the other day)? Maybe try to get a gig in the Trump administration? And if that doesn’t work out…???
    9. John Reid/his campaign team: Give him credit for running an energetic campaign, as well as a creative one in terms of social media, but it’s hard to see Reid having much of a political future after losing by 11 points for LG, getting heavily outspent, etc. Plus, there was a LOT of intra-GOP turmoil surrounding his candidacy, with Glenn Youngkin even demanding at one point that Reid drop out, Winsome Earle-Sears avoiding him for weeks/months, etc. Maybe he can get his MAGA radio gig back?
    10. Carrie Coyner: So in the end, she leaked private texts with her former friend Jay Jones to try and destroy his candidacy, and…he won and she lost her seat in the House of Delegates. If that doesn’t put you in the “Losers” category, nothing will.
    11. UVA and GMU rectors: With Democrats controlling all levers of power in Virginia starting in January, these universities’ leadership could be facing a serious reckoning with regard to their acceptance of Trump administration demands about “DEI,” etc. Watch out; something tells me Senate and House of Delegates Democrats are not too happy with these guys…
    12. Traditional Media Coverage of Virginia’s Democratic primaries: Unfortunately, state/local media has been in decline for years, and that includes its coverage – or lack thereof – of local and state politics. That was certainly reflected in this cycle’s generally shallow, superficial, spotty, “horse race” coverage by the corporate media of the Democratic statewide and (particularly) House of Delegates/local primaries. The WaPo, for instance, barely even covered the House of Delegates races, and their main coverage of the LG race was about the controversy over Glenn Youngkin calling for John Reid to step aside. Plus, the WaPo did its usual, sanewashing/whitewashing Republican extremism, because that’s what they do (they also did a last-minute hit piece against Jay Jones on their editorial page; apparently, it made no difference whatsoever, because honestly, at this point, who gives a flying f&%# what Jeff Bezos and his right-wing editors think about ANYTHING???). Does it serve the public? Definitely not. As for the rest of the Virginia media, the traditional newspapers are in bad shape financially, but also in terms of their entire way of covering politics, namely tons of “both sides” false equivalence, sanewashing/whitewashing of Republican extremism (this cycle, they did it heavily with John Reid and Winsome Earle-Sears), stenography (particularly with material Republicans feed to them), “access journalism” (an oxymoron, btw), etc. Then there are right-wing media outlets, like Sinclair-owned WJLA7, Fox “News,” right-wing talk radio shows, etc. In sum, it’s a really bad situation…and getting worse, as right wingers continue their relentless efforts to buy up/control the media. (Note: It’s not all bad; there are independent journalists out there who do good work, also citizens who put out factual, fair-minded information, like Sam Shirazi with his Federal Fallout podcast).
  • VA Elections 2025 Polls and Predictions: Some of the Best…and Some of the Worst

    VA Elections 2025 Polls and Predictions: Some of the Best…and Some of the Worst

    See below for some of the best and worst polls and predictions for the 2025 VA elections.

    Governor’s race: Spanberger by 14.5 points (final polls for each outfit)

    • YouGov: Spanberger +15 (nailed it; off by just 0.5 points)
    • StateNavigate: Spanberger +13 (missed by 1.5 points)
    • Echelon: Spanberger +12 (missed by 2.5 points)
    • WaPo/Schar: Spanberger +12 (missed by 2.5 points)
    • Emerson College: Spanberger +11 (missed by 3.5 points)
    • Roanoke College: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
    • Kaplan Strategies: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
    • Clarity Campaign Labs: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
    • Insider Advantage: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
    • AtlasIntel: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
    • Suffolk University: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
    • Public Policy Polling: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
    • Quantus Insights: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
    • Research Company: Spanberger +8 (missed by 6.5 points)
    • A2 Insights: Spanberger +8 (missed by 6.5 points)
    • CNU Wason Center: Spanberger +7 (missed by 7.5 points)
    • Trafalgar: Spanberger +7 (missed by 7.5 points)
    • VCU: Spanberger +7 (missed by 7.5 points)
    • co/efficient: Spanberger +5 (missed by 9.5 points)
    • Cygnal: Spanberger +4 (missed by 10.5 points)

    Lt. Governor race: Hashmi won by 11 points (final polls for each outfit)

    • State Navigate: Hashmi +12 (missed by 1 points)
    • Quantus Insights: Hashmi +8 (missed by 3 points)
    • A2 Insights: Hashmi +8 (missed by 3 points)
    • WaPo/Schar: Hashmi +7 (missed by 4 points)
    • Kaplan Strategies: Hashmi +7 (missed by 4 points)
    • AtlasIntel: Hashmi +6 (missed by 5 points)
    • co/efficient: Hashmi +5 (missed by 6 points)
    • Quantus Insights: Hashmi +4 (missed by 7 points)
    • Clarity Campaign Labs: Hashmi +4 (missed by 7 points)
    • Echelon: Hashmi +3 (missed by 8 points)
    • Trafalgar: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
    • SoCal Strategies: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
    • Roanoke College: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
    • CNU/Wason: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
    • VCU: Hashmi +1 (missed by 10 points)
    • Suffolk University: Tied (missed by 11 points)

    Attorney General race: Jones won by 6 points (final polls for each outfit)

    • State Navigate: Jones +3 (missed by 3 points)
    • Insider Advantage: Jones +2 (missed by 4 points)
    • Emerson College: Jones +2 (missed by 4 points)
    • Quantus Insights: Tied (missed by 6 points)
    • Trafalgar: Tied (missed by 6 points)
    • WaPo/Schar: Tied (missed by 6 points)
    • Kaplan Strategies: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
    • A2 Insights: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
    • Atlas Intel: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
    • CNU/Wason: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
    • SoCal Strategies: Miyares +2 (missed by 8 points)
    • VCU: Miyares +3 (missed by 9 points)
    • Echelon: Miyares +3 (missed by 9 points)
    • Suffolk University: Miyares +4 (missed by 10 points)
    • Quantus Insights: Miyares +7 (missed by 13 points)
    • Roanoke College: Miyares +8 (missed by 14 points)

    PREDICTIONS (roughly in descending order of accuracy; I’ll add more as I see them)

    • Maryland Politico: “I’m gonna be bold in my final #Virginia predictions. Here we go: Governor: Spanberger +11 Lt. Governor: Hashmi +9 Attorney General: Jones +4 House of Delegates: D’s gain 12 seats.”
    • DC Cyclone: Spanberger +14, Hashmi +8, Jones +4, HoD 61 Dems
    • Ben Tribbett: Predicted a blue wave, Dems with their biggest margin for governor in modern VA history
    • Uncrewed: Predicted 61 Democratic seats in the House of Delegates
    • Chaz Nuttycombe/State Navigate: Spanberger +11.2, Hashmi +6.4, Jones +2.1, HoD Dems 60-40
    • Matt Walton: Spanberger 55.4%, Hashmi 52.5%, Jones 51.25%, HoD Dems win 61 seats
    • The Political HQ: Spanberger +11, Hashmi +7, Jones +2, HoD 60 Democratic seats
    • Election Enjoyer: Spanberger +10.1, Jones +0.4
    • Ryan Brune: Spanberger +11, Hashmi +7, Miyares +3, HoD Dems win 58
    • Joe Szymanski (R): Predicted Spanberger by 9-12, Hashmi as Safe D, “I do think Jason Miyares survives tomorrow,” and 60 Democratic seats in the House of Delegates
    • PredictIt: Had Spanberger as the overwhelming favor pretty much the entire election; had Jones as the strong favorite for much of the race, until the texting scandal, then had Miyares as the favorite, then it swung back to Jones in the last few days; had Hashmi as the strong favorite pretty much the whole way.
    • Polymarket: Had Spanberger as the overwhelming favor pretty much the entire election; had Jones as the strong favorite for much of the race, until the texting scandal, then had Miyares as the favorite, then it swung back to Jones in the last few days; had Hashmi as the strong favorite pretty much the whole way.
    • Kalshi: Had Spanberger as the overwhelming favor pretty much the entire election; had Jones as the strong favorite for much of the race, until the texting scandal, then had Miyares as the favorite, then it swung back to Jones in the last few days; had Hashmi as the strong favorite pretty much the whole way.
    • John Fredericks’ “Virginia Gang”: Former VA State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant predicted a split ticket (Spanberger/Reid/Miyares?); Fredericks thought Reid would win, said it felt “better than Youngkin [2021] out there”; former VA Sen. Jill Vogel said it felt like Youngkin 2021, the trend moving towards Republicans, the “worst case” for Republicans was a “split ticket,” saw no scenario in which Jay Jones wins; VA GOP Chair Mark Peake said “the momentum just seems to be on our side,” Rs would win on Tuesday and take back the HoD; former VA Sen. Joe Morrissey predicted Spanberger would win, Miyares would win AG, possible for Reid to win if Spanberger didn’t win by more than 6, 7 points…
    • Former Del. Tim Anderson: Predicted the VA GOP would take the House of Delegates, Terry Kilgore would be Speaker (LOL!)
  • Former VA Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R/Trump Voter) Attributes Last Night’s Blue Tsunami/Republican Wipeout to “BAD ENVIRONMENT,” “BAD CANDIDATE,” “BAD CAMPAIGN.”

    Former VA Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R/Trump Voter) Attributes Last Night’s Blue Tsunami/Republican Wipeout to “BAD ENVIRONMENT,” “BAD CANDIDATE,” “BAD CAMPAIGN.”

    See below for some thoughts, from former VA Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R), on last night’s massive election sweep for Virginia Democrats – and complete disaster for Republicans. My comments are in green/bold/italics/parentheses…

    THOUGHTS ON THE 2025 ELECTION

    I had long thought the 2025 election could resemble that of 2017, when Democrats swept all three statewide offices and picked up 12 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. It ended up being even worse than that. (In 2017, Democrats picked up 15 seats in the House of Delegates and swept the three statewide offices…albeit not by as wide margins as last night. – Lowell)

    Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle Sears in the race for Governor by an overwhelming margin of 57%-42%, a much larger margin of victory than anyone had predicted. (Actually, State Navigate’s poll on 10/22 had Spanberger +13, Hashmi +11 and Jones +5, as well as Democrats picking up 12 seats in the House of Delegates – so almost EXACTLY NAILED IT – wow!)

    The giant suckng sound created by the total implosion of the Sears campaign also impacted down-ticket races.

    Democrat Ghazala Hashmi defeated Republican John Reid in the race for Lieutenant Governor by a margin of 55%-44%.

    And Democrat Jay “Two Bullets” Jones defeated incumbent Republican Jason Miyares by a margin of 53%-47%.

    And in the House of Delegates, it appears as though Democrats picked up 13 seats, defeating many long-serving Republicans across the state.

    What were the factors that made 2025 such a good year for Democrats and such a bad year for Republicans? While I certainly reserve the right to revise this list once I have seen the exit polls, I suspect it had to do with the following:

    BAD ENVIRONMENT: 2025 was always going to be a tough political environment for Republicans. This has everything to do with national politics. President Trump’s approval rating in Virginia is in the upper 30s or the low 40s. That created a lot of political head winds for Republicans, and the federal government shutdown, which disproportionately impacts a state like Virginia, sure didn’t help. (Sure, but you can see Trump-supporter Bill Bolling not wanting to just admit that Trump is an unmitigated DISASTER – for the country, the world, and also politically for the Republican Party.)

    BAD CANDIDATE: Let’s face it, Winsome Earle Sears was a bad candidate. Sears had little experience in state government. She had served one term in the House of Delegates 20 years ago. She then reemerged four years ago and was elected Lieutenant Governor on Glenn Youngkin’s coattails. And over the past four years Sears had done nothing to distinguish herself as Lieutenant Governor. She had no record to run on. That not only impacted Sears credibility as a candidate, but it also impacted her ability to raise money, which is the “mother’s milk” of any political campaign. (Right, plus she came across to many voters as nutty, including via the Spanberger campaign’s brilliant use of that weird “I AM SPEAKING!” clip from the Buena Vista Labor Day event in September 2024. Also, she was utterly obsessesd with where people go potty – as Speaker Don Scott said, the VA GOP is basically the “pee-and-poop caucus” – and other right-wing hot-button issues that poll after poll showed most voters barely cared about, certainly weren’t top priorities…)

    BAD CAMPAIGN: Sears ran a bad campaign. I don’t know who her political consultants were, but whoever told Sears to run a campaign based on cultural issues like the transgender issue was guilty of political consulting malpractice. Sears should have tied herself to the hip of Glenn Youngkin and talked about economic issues – jobs, inflation, the cost of living, etc. That may not have helped her win given the other challenges she faced, but it might have helped. (The problem is, Republicans had zero case to make on the economy, so I disagree with Bolling that this would have been effective for Earle-Sears. But she probably should have at least tried. As for Youngkin, the polls vary somewhat, but it looks like he’s going to end his governorship as the least-popular, or very close to the least-popular, governor in Virginia history. So tying herself to Youngkin would have accomplished…what exactly?)

    BAD RESULT: All of these factors produced a very bad result for Republicans on Election Day.

    Democrats now control all three of our statewide elected offices and both houses of the General Assembly. What will this mean for the future of Virginia? A lot of very bad liberal policies, but I’ll talk more about that in a later post, once all the political dust has settled. (And this right here is why Bolling votes for Trump, despite the fact that he must know Trump is an utter disaster – because Bolling’s a conservative who HATES liberal policies, which he thinks are “very bad,” even though most of them are popular with voters and also very positive economically, etc. But sure, with a governing “trifecta,” VA Democrats will now have to show that they can govern effectively and deliver on their promises. That’s fair enough. And then the voters can decided whether they’re happy with those policies or not.)

    P.S. Forgive the cartoon below. It just seemed so appropriate. 🙂

     

    UPDATED November 6 – Bolling’s analysis of how Jay Jones won:

  • Wednesday News: “The Backlash To Trump Is Here — And It’s Big”; “The last time Democrats won like this was right before the 2018 blue wave”; “VA Bloodbath for GOP”; “Blue wave rebuilds the House: Democrats soar to at least 64 seats in Virginia”

    Wednesday News: “The Backlash To Trump Is Here — And It’s Big”; “The last time Democrats won like this was right before the 2018 blue wave”; “VA Bloodbath for GOP”; “Blue wave rebuilds the House: Democrats soar to at least 64 seats in Virginia”

    by Lowell

    Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Wednesday, November 5 – the morning after the blue tsunami last night – congratulations to everyone working towards defending our democracy and taking back our country from Trump/MAGA/etc!