A little over a year ago, I started a series of diaries looking at the past, present, and future of Virginia politics. You can check out the entries here: Day One, Competitive Districts
. Day Two, Turnout Problems
. Day Three, Past Mistakes. Day Four, Downstate Democrats
. Day Five, Unchallenged Incumbents
. Day Six, Present Opportunities. Day Seven, Democratic Trends
. Day Eight, Swing Voters. Day Nine, 2021 Redistricting. Day Ten, Independent Redistricting. Day Eleven, A Diverse Future.
And finally Day Twelve, Messaging
This year, I wondered if there was enough new information to justify a complete update to the series. But Mark Warner's near defeat in 2014, and the analysis about the race that followed
, showed the trendlines of a year ago are stronger than ever
. Instead, I spent this weekend looking at various population trends and projections in Virginia, with an eye to the next round of redistricting.
In the fall of 2012, UVA's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service issued its population projections for 2020 and beyond. They forecast a slowdown in population growth overall for the Commonwealth, with Southside and Southwest Virginia barely growing at all.
But their projections came with a grain of salt.