New Poll Shows Dems Leading Congressional Preference in 3 of 4 Regions

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    The Southern Strategy of Dick Nixon lives.  And today’s Republican Party “is very much a Southern regional white party in terms of the demographics of its supporters,” says Huffington Post.

    Huffington Post summarizes the upshot of a very interesting new WSJ poll.  (For obvious reasons, I won’t link a Murdoch property here, however.) HuffPost says that the role of the GOP as a (white) Southern Strategy party lives.  But the strategy may not be buying the GOP much.  


    The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn’t lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it’s 44%-43%.

    This bodes far better for Dems than the so-called MSM would have you believe.  One might also ask:

    How’s that workin’ for the GOP?  Not so well.  As the story notes, even Michael Steele says that African Americans have no reason to vote for the GOP.

    Additionally, Harry Reid may be right, Hispanics may not have a reason to vote for Republicans either.  Nor do other people of color, women, the elderly or college students. Nor would the poor be well represented by the GOP. The list for whom a vote for the GOP would be a mistake also includes those who’ve been downsized, those who lost their jobs due to the mortgage crisis or bad economy, and those whose unemployment benefits are running out. So, their nay-saying; fib-telling; fear-mongering; Obama, immigrant and worker/voter trashing isn’t such good “strategery.”  

    • Dan Sullivan

      and it is their strongest suite. Rove thought he had an angle on the Hispanic vote, but the rest of the GOP crapped all over that.

    • VA Blogger

      Voters in urban centers trend overwhelmingly towards Democrats. So what does that tell us about the results?

      Look at the West, where (despite the technically correct assertion that the GOP leads in only one region) the two parties are effectively tied. Remove the concentrated downtowns of urban centers like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, and the GOP has a decent, if not dominant, lead elsewhere. That’s why races like CA-SEN, CA-GOV, OR-GOV, WA-SEN, NV-SEN, NM-GOV, and CO-SEN are toss-ups and races like AZ-GOV and NV-GOV the GOP has the advantage.

      Look at the Midwest and take out downtown Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland, and its about even or better. That’s why 6 Governorships from Pennsylvania to Iowa (including OH, MI, WI, and IL) all are GOP-leaning pickups (plus Indiana which is already GOP-held).

      Look at the New England, which is clearly the Democrat’s strongest region (like the South is the GOP’s), but take out downtown New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia, and the picture isn’t nearly quite as bad, which is why the GOP is competitive in 7 DEM-held Congressional seats in New York state alone, and are favored to pick-up both seats in New Hampshire while holding the Senate seat.

      Also, the poll that you refuse to link to is jointly conducted by the WSJ and NBC News, and the two pollsters are considered among the best in their field, with one Republican (McInturff) and one Democrat (Hart). But I bet Murdoch just told them what to report.