Democrat Boucher Holding Lead Against Griffith

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    Don’t believe what you are hearing. Voters do not vote on ballots with “generic” questions, so “generic” polls mean nothing.  Nor does level of “excitement,” necessarily translate into votes.  But getting to the best predictors, such as commitment to vote, has become increasingly difficult.  Fed up with telemarketers, many of us do not answer calls from unrecognized area codes, or numbers, we don’t normally receive calls from.  And unless cellphone users give away their cell numbers, those relying exclusively on cell phones are underrepresented as well.  As Rachel Maddow has documented and I have blogged, this is the year of the incumbent.  But, given the onslaught of trumped-up horse race stories claiming otherwise, it is hard to remember that. There is no better example that this is and will be the year of the incumbent than the 9th District race in Virginia.

    An Augusta Free Press (AFP) story dated Friday reported results of a new Survey USA poll reports that voters prefer Boucher over Griffith 50 to 40%. Voters in the 9th know about Rick’s deep roots in and commitment to the 9th.

    They also know that Morgan Griffith has done nothing for the 9th District.  Griffith hopes to carpetbag instant entitlement to the 9th District seat. He’s just the latest in a long list of carpetbaggers trotted before voters of the 9th in hopes of unseating one of the most popular, hard working US Representatives anywhere. The only thing Griffith has ever done, he did to the 9th, by gerrymandering the hell out of it for fun and political profit.  

    (Keep reading below for some really interesting info about internal polls as reported by AFP.)

    In addition, AFP points also to internal polling showing a much larger lead for Boucher 53-32%).  The same poll shows Boucher’s favorability at 65% and his job approval rating even higher at 68%.  This does not mean that we should “rest easy.” Indeed, we should take nothing for granted.  But it most certainly does not mean Dems should be cowering and afraid in the face of the phony mantra in the extant media coverage of 2010 races.

    Races will be won, one at a time, in each Congressional district.  Boucher’s hard work will pay off.  So, too will the hard work of most other incumbents this year.  Though this race is very important, an even more urgent focus is redistricting, which threatens to eliminate Dem districts, such as Jim Shuler’s.  So, we need to focus on both fronts.  More on this in a later blog this week.

    • GregHabeeb

      I’m sure you know the old rule about incumbents at or below 50% around Labor Day.  Boucher is certainly the favorite in this race but this is going to be a real nail biter for all involved.  The fact that they released their “internals” when and how they did was very telling.  Gonna be a lot of fun.  Just wish I still lived in the 9th so I could once again vote against Mr. Boucher.