Washington Post Poll: It All Comes Down to Turnout

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    The new Washington Post/ABC News poll has a variety of findings, but the bottom line is that results on Tuesday all come down to turnout.  Here are the top line results.

    REGISTERED voters: 49% Democratic candidate-44% Republican candidate

    LIKELY voters: 49% Republican candidate-45% Democratic candidate

    More interesting results…

    REGISTERED voters: 50%-45% approve of President Obama’s performance as president

    LIKELY voters: 46%-52% disapprove of President Obama’s performance as president

    Bottom line: if voting on Tuesday is closer to “registered” than “likely,” Democrats will do much better than expected.  If not, they won’t.  So, do what you can over the next 48 hours to help get out the vote, and of course make sure you vote Democratic on Tuesday!

    • Mike1987

      Gave to my congressman, knocked on doors and will vote. now, come Wed, if the events turn out the way I don’t like, I have every right to bitch. Those who did not take the time to vote, will need to sit down and STFU for the next two years.

      -We have the numbers

      -The voting is against Democrats, not FOR Republicans/Baggers.

      It’s ours to lose.

    • C

      So I have been looking at the numbers for early voting in North Carolina and have been somewhat encouraged by the numbers.  For one, black voters are turning up in numbers that are proportional to the state’s population.  Black voters are about 22 percent of the state’s population and about 21 percent of early voters.  It should also be noted that the percentage of black voters went up from the teens into the 20s in the last couple of days.  This would seem to indicate there is a disproportionately higher number of black voters showing up in the last few days.  Finally, in 2008 blacks were 23 percent of the electorate in the state.  Keeping things above 20 percent there on election day would not result in a huge drop off in percentage terms (unlike what we saw in Virginia last year for the gubernatorial race).

      Two, in terms of turnout rates, Democrats were only turning out at a rate that is only about 2 points lower than Republicans.  So far, about 16 percent of registered Democrats have voted and over 17 percent of registered Republicans have voted.  Where is the huge enthusiasm gap that keeps is supposed to be justifying the huge gap between registered voter and likely voter screens?  I know Democrats utilized early voting more in ’08 (not sure about before that), but if the Rs are so much more eager to vote, why is there no huge gap in turnout rates?

      Three, due to the about 800,000 gap in registered Democrats and registered Republicans in the state and the roughly equal turnout rates, just under 100,000 MORE Democrats have voted in North Carolina than Republicans (conceding of course that many Dems there to switch over).

      In Maryland, the early voting electorate is heavily skewed towards the Democrats.  Over 60 percent of the early voting electorate has been Democratic.  As a side note, I also heard from a relative in Maryland that while voting early she waited with several other black voters.  Along the same lines, I can tell you that Obama’s visit to Charlottesville may be doing what was intended.  I am hearing from several family members and friends who definitely do not vote in these types of elections not only saying that they are going to vote, but being, shall I say, enthusiastic about it.  I’ve also heard about black churches sending out the message today.

      I think these numbers and anecdotes can tell us some interesting things about what could possibly happen here in Virginia.  I think the black turnout could prove especially crucial in the 5th District (and 2nd if black voters are at all inspired by Nye).  I am really getting the impression that black voters aren’t sitting this out.  I also think the lack of gap in registered voter turnout rates provides some hope that maybe the enthusiasm gap will not be all it’s been hyped up to be.  

      You should also draw whatever conclusions you will from the rally in DC yesterday.  The crowd was at least twice as large as the Tea Party one and very possibly much more(although not covered as much by the media because it didn’t fit their narrative).

      We can do this.  People, not polls, vote and the pundits can be wrong (remember how great Palin was going to be for McCain in the beginning and all the talk of tightening of the presidential race).  We will all see come late night Tuesday.  Until then, GOTV!