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“Felix” Is Running

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It seems absolutely clear to me that George “Felix Macacawitz” Allen is running for Senate in 2012. The question is, what about Jim Webb?  So far, what we’ve gotten from Webb is hemming and hawing, pretty much “I’m possibly not not maybe not could be not not I’ll think about it not – or not – running.” Ha. Seriously, though, how long does Webb have before he has to jump off the fence? And how enthusiastically does he have to jump if and when he does so?  I’d say, “sooner rather than later,” and “100% in it to win it.”  If not, I’d say that Webb could be in serious trouble in 2012, which is shaping up as a potentially tough year for Democratic U.S. Senators, particularly from the freshman class of 2006.

Also, can we count on Barack Obama to win Virginia again in 2012? After the disastrous results of 2009 and 2010 for Virginia Democrats, I certainly don’t think we can do that. So, what’s the strategy?  Pray for Republicans to nominate Sarah Palin?  If so, that’s not much of a strategy. Your thoughts?

  • Dan Sullivan

    Allen’s strengths and Senator Webb’s Achilles’ heels. The campaign will be on soon and Allen won’t miss the train.

  • Tom

    Webb said that he should have started his campaign two years earlier. At that point he had almost no money – I used the term “barely had two dimes to rub together”, and about the only money he had was the $280K or so he had loaned his campaign with no assurance that debt could be repaid. But what he did have was something Allen never had: Jim had what was often called “the best volunteers that money cannot buy”. But I am very concerned that if Webb keeps procrastinating on making what should by now be an easy decision for him and officially announcing his candidacy for re-election is that those of us who worked so hard for him in 2006 might decide we can no longer dedicate so much of our volunteer time and energy in 2012.

    I believe Webb was right in May of 2006 that he should have started building his campaign organization, and not just his fund raising apparatus, much sooner. But for a sitting Senator who by now is very well aware of the fact that re-election campaigns must begin two years before election day to still not know if he/she wants to run again sends a powerfully negative message of a propensity toward indecision. This is very uncharacteristic of Webb, which really makes me think that he has already decided that he doesn’t want to put up with Harry Reid for another 6 years or for some other reason he just doesn’t want to continue his political career. Webb will be 65 and eligible for Medicare next Feb. so maybe he is thinking about wanting to spend more time with his family.

    All this is a part of the reason that I am planning to attend the 3-4 Dec. DPVA quarterly meetings in Newport News. Jim has already made some very blunt and I think helpful comments about what he thinks is wrong with the DPVA, so I expect him to say even more Friday evening at the Steering Committee meeting about what he thinks needs to change and I think there is an outside chance that he might use that opportunity for a public announcement on his intentions for 2012. If he does in fact announce that he has decided not to run for re-election, I think there is some possibility that he might at least hint who he might support for his replacement (I’d give 100:1 odds it won’t be Harris Miller). If Webb fails to announce a re-election decision at the DPVA meeting, I would have to interpret that to mean he does not intend to run again. One thing for certain is that the longer he waits to announce his decision the more dedicated volunteers he will lose. I’ll still support him even if he waits another 6 months, but by that time it might be too late for him to regain whatever is left of his 2006 “ragtag army” grassroots support. Personally, I think if Webb doesn’t announce soon that Tom Davis will pre-empt him, which at least would short-stop Allen but might result in a loss of the Dem. Senate majority.

    I kinda got a bit long-winded, and for that I apologize. But Webb really has to make a decision and announce it ASAP.

                             T.C.

  • MorrisMeyer

    The OFA campaign in 2008 registered 400,000 new voters and changed the electoral gradient in Virginia.

    If we put that sort of effort into Virginia again we’ll get to brand George Allen a two-time loser.

    If we put that sort of effort into Virginia every year we’ll put a Democratic speaker into the House of Delegates.

  • Cool_Arrow

    I realize that a lot of talk has been about how tough of an opponent that George Allen could be but let’s keep in mind that while Webb did win by only the skin of his teeth Allen is a flawed candidate. His macaca moment won’t be forgotten anytime soon. A Presidential election involves a MUCH different turnout then what a midterm electorate looks like. This means that the electorate is younger and less white. While Webb is not a traditional politician in raising funds and slapping backs nobody has as much to gain by being on the ballot with Obama as he does. I fully expect Virginia to be a targeted state by both parties. Getting young people in NoVa and African-Americans downstate to the polls for Obama isn’t likely to yield votes for Obama and for Allen. Right now Virginia is a toss-up state.

    To me the best candidate for the GOP is Tom Davis. In a convention or a primary his nomination is DOA. I’d love for Webb to get the drama over with but it is barely 2 weeks past the last elections, there is still plenty of time for him to declare and raise money. Let’s stop fearing George Allen. We beat him once and we can beat him again.  

  • realclearwin

    I have two words for ya: Tom…Perriello