Home National Politics Analysis of Egypt Situation by Stratfor, Tom Perriello; Statement by White House

Analysis of Egypt Situation by Stratfor, Tom Perriello; Statement by White House


I think Stratfor’s analysis is spot on, except that I agree with Tom Perriello (see below) that this wasn’t a pure “coup” (as Stratfor’s video headline states, oversimplistically), but more of a hybrid of a popular uprising and military intervention. I also recommend the analysis of former Rep. Tom Perriello (see his tweets from the past few days below), who knows Egypt well.

*”Reformist @monaeltahawy just rocked @jaketapper: How were people to use the ballot box when Morsi jailed/intimidated the opposition?”

*”Army closed deal, but this revolt was led by brave reformists who never gave up spirit of Jan25 and millions who rallied with them. Not over”

*”Classifying this as “military coup” is intellectually dishonest at best. Whether for or against it, this was people-powered from the start.”

*”Given it would have ZERO legitimacy w/o the people having risen up first, reducing Egyptian military’s roadmap to the word “coup” seems lazy”

*”Egypt’s revolution succeeds when activists organize outside the square then return, as with 18 days & Tamarod et al.”

*”Dvpts in Egypt kinda validate Obama’s don’t-pick-sides/support-dem-process approach: MB can’t play trump card of protests being a US plot.”

UPDATE: See the statement by the White House in the comments section of this post.

UPDATE #2: Rep. Gerry Connolly weighs in on Twitter – “Morsi’s ouster due to lack of respect for dissenting views & civil society. Military coup is not viable alt, Morsi’s faults notwithstanding.”

  • From the White House:

    As I have said since the Egyptian Revolution, the United States supports a set of core principles, including opposition to violence, protection of universal human rights, and reform that meets the legitimate aspirations of the people.  The United States does not support particular individuals or political parties, but we are committed to the democratic process and respect for the rule of law.  Since the current unrest in Egypt began, we have called on all parties to work together to address the legitimate grievances of the Egyptian people, in accordance with the democratic process, and without recourse to violence or the use of force.

    The United States is monitoring the very fluid situation in Egypt, and we believe that ultimately the future of Egypt can only be determined by the Egyptian people. Nevertheless, we are deeply concerned by the decision of the Egyptian Armed Forces to remove President Morsy and suspend the Egyptian constitution. I now call on the Egyptian military to move quickly and responsibly to return full authority back to a democratically elected civilian government as soon as possible through an inclusive and transparent process, and to avoid any arbitrary arrests of President Morsy and his supporters. Given today’s developments, I have also directed the relevant departments and agencies to review the implications under U.S. law for our assistance to the Government of Egypt.

    The United States continues to believe firmly that the best foundation for lasting stability in Egypt is a democratic political order with participation from all sides and all political parties – secular and religious, civilian and military. During this uncertain period, we expect the military to ensure that the rights of all Egyptian men and women are protected, including the right to peaceful assembly, due process, and free and fair trials in civilian courts.  Moreover, the goal of any political process should be a government that respects the rights of all people, majority and minority; that institutionalizes the checks and balances upon which democracy depends; and that places the interests of the people above party or faction. The voices of all those who have protested peacefully must be heard – including those who welcomed today’s developments, and those who have supported President Morsy. In the interim, I urge all sides to avoid violence and come together to ensure the lasting restoration of Egypt’s democracy.

    No transition to democracy comes without difficulty, but in the end it must stay true to the will of the people. An honest, capable and representative government is what ordinary Egyptians seek and what they deserve. The longstanding partnership between the United States and Egypt is based on shared interests and values, and we will continue to work with the Egyptian people to ensure that Egypt’s transition to democracy succeeds.