Graph: Mark Warner 2014 Underperformed Mark Herring 2013, Particularly in the “Blue”...

Graph: Mark Warner 2014 Underperformed Mark Herring 2013, Particularly in the “Blue” Areas


If you check out the graph below (as usual, click to “embiggen” it), what you’ll see – based on numbers from VPAP for 2013 and from Daily Kos’ super-sharp data crunchers – is how relatively well (or NOT well, depending on how you look at it) Mark Herring performed in each State Senate district in the 2013 general election for Attorney General compared to how well Mark Warner performed in each State Senate district in the 2014 U.S. Senate election. Positive bars indicate that Mark Warner 2014 did better in a particular State Senate district than Mark Herring 2013, while negative bars indicate that Warner 2014 did WORSE than Herring 2013 in a particular State Senate district. A few findings that jumped out at me include:

1. Warner 2014 did better than Herring 2013 in just 13 out of 40 (about one third) State Senate districts, while doing worse in 27 out of 40 (about two thirds).

2. Of the 13 districts where Warner 2014 did better than Herring 2013, nine were “red” districts” and only four were “blue” districts.’

3. In general, Warner 2014 underperformed Herring 2013, particularly in the “blue” State Senate districts.

4. Warner 2014 particularly underperformed in Northern Virginia State Senate “blue” districts, while he doing better in Richmond area (McEachin, Dance), Hampton Roads (Miller, Lewis, Lucas, Locke, Alexander) and rural (Deeds and Edwards) “blue” districts.

5. Warner 2014 particularly OVERperformed in rural Southwestern and Southside Virginia, districts like Carrico, Newman, Chafin, Smith, Ruff and Stanley. So…perhaps some of the Warner appeal to “red,” rural areas is still alive, but it clearly wasn’t enough to compensate for the underperformance by Warner in suburban and exurban areas, particularly the “blue” districts in Northern Virginia like Ebbin’s, Saslaw’s, Favola’s, Puller’s, Howell’s, Wexton’s, Colgan’s, Petersen’s, Barker’s and Marsden’s.

Anything else jumping out at you here?

  • ZachPruckowski

    The two most prominent areas of Herring out-performing Warner are the “Wexton” and “Black” Senate districts. At the time of the AG Election, Herring held the “Wexton” seat, and the “Black” seat is basically the other half of Loudoun County. It’s also worth noting that Ed Gillespie was from Fairfax. These could play a large role in any particular NoVA discrepancies. Throw in T-Mac being from the eastern NoVA area as well, and I think that’s a good chunk of explanation.

    The surprising thing to me is that Herring out-performed Warner in Obenshain’s district (Obenshain being Herring’s 2013 opponent) – I would have expected the opposite to be true.