Home 2018 Elections Current Percentage Chances of Democrats Winning Virginia Congressional Races (6/11/18)

Current Percentage Chances of Democrats Winning Virginia Congressional Races (6/11/18)

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Courtesy of The Crosstab, see below for current, estimated chance of Democrats winning each Congressional district in Virginia. Note that I’ve left Democratic-controlled VA-03, VA-04, VA-08 and VA-11 off the map, as they’re all 99% likely to remain Democratic. I last took a look at this back in February, when The Crosstab estimated Dems with a 64.7% chance of winning in VA-10, a 36.5% chance in VA-02, a 33% chance in VA-07, a 28.3% chance in VA-05, a 22.2% chance in VA-01, a 17.8% chance in VA-06 and a 1% chance in VA-09.

The big changes since February in Virginia are as follows:

  • VA-10 up to 87.4% from 64.7%
  • VA-07 up to 40.2% from 33%
  • VA-05 up to 33.3% from 28.3%
  • VA-02 down to 26.2% from 36.5%
  • VA-01 down to 13.7% from 22.2%
  • VA-06 down to 2.4% from 17.8%
  • VA-09 holds steady at a 1% chance

My view is that VA-10 is an overestimate (I’d put it closer to a two-thirds chance, unless Shak Hill wins the GOP nomination, in which case I’d put it close to 100% for the Dems); VA-02 is probably too low (I’d put it closer to 40%), while the others seem about right. What do you think? Of course, we’ll see who the nominees are tomorrow, and will revisit this analysis after that settles out…

  • Roger Miller

    Puzzled by the VA05 estimate. This is the seat that Perriello won during the Obama Wave. So there is a template to victory. If wave politics is a thing, 33% seems low.

    Second, the Garrett-Riggleman musical chairs didn’t move the needle much. How does replacing a former commonwealth’s attorney with a moonshiner (I lived in 05 for a short time and whiskey distiller is double speak for former moonshiner.) keep the district comfortably red? Just the flopping around of the dead fish should have caused some disruption.

    • I just checked a different source – 538.com (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/virginia/) – to see what they think. They’ve got the 5th with an 87.3% chance of being represented by a Republican (“How often we’d expect a party to win each of Virginia’s 11 seats over the long term — not specifically the 2018 midterms — based on historical patterns since 2006”). So…kick in a “blue wave” and maybe get that up from a 13% chance to a 33% chance? Also note that Cook has VA-05 as R+6. Note that the 5th was redistricted in 2011 and, I believe, became a bit more “red.” But still, it shows you what a great year 2008 was, and also what a great candidate Tom Perriello was in that district in that year against that opponent…

      • BuckDem

        The 5th’s gotten more red since 2008 but Perriello was up against incumbent advantage and still managed to win. I’m hoping GOP disunity plays to our advantage since Riggleman only won by a single vote after multiple rounds of voting.

        What did chances did Crosstabs give for the House overall in Feb?

        • Looks like around 70% back in February, so a bit down since then…

          http://www.thecrosstab.com/2018-midterms-forecast/

          • BuckDem

            Thanks!

            Not down by much. These numbers are probably still affected by POTUS’s random surge of popularity the earlier last month and into this one. At least the chances are on the upswing.

    • BuckDem

      I don’t think it moved much because even though the GOP lost incumbency advantage with Garrett dropping out, they also she’d his baggage as well. Riggleman may not be an incumbent with any sort of experience, but he didn’t pose with Jason Kessler in his office. These traits probably cancel each other out so it remains at 33%.

      • I’d argue that Riggleman is stronger – not sure by how much exactly – than a deeply damaged Garrett, even if Garrett was the incumbent.

        • BuckDem

          I’d agree with you in some aspects but it’s hard to say on others. Garrett was definitely damaged and had a record to attack. Riggleman probably has more appeal to independents but based on the close voting that made him the nominee, I wonder how united the GOP is behind him. Clearly there’s a strong base that liked Dunbar’s ultra-conservatism – will those voters show up for Riggleman who has a less harsh view on social issues? I honestly don’t know but I really hope they don’t.

    • notjohnsmosby

      Redistricting in 2012 took Roanoke out of the 5th. The current 5th is a few percent more Republican than before.

  • OrangeDem

    Feeling cautiously optimistic about the 7th. Really impressed with the enthusiasm and youth behind both the Spanberger and Ward campaigns. Both have been door-to-door in my neighborhood. It’s nice not to see the Town of Orange ignored. What I wonder about is the level of enthusiasm Brat generates from his own supporters. Still personally just seem him as the anti-Cantor candidate. How does that help him four years later?

  • Andy Schmookler

    About VA=06, where I live, and where I once ran against Bob Goodlatte. That 2.4% is a lot lower than the 16% chance that Predictit.org market is saying. I’m dubious about it’s being 16%. Not sure if 2.4% is in the right ball park. Certainly the wave would have to be a tsunami.

    • BuckDem

      I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. VA-06 is open and I’m not sure how united they party in the 6th is around Cline since those Dunbar people are fanatically devoted and batsh*t crazy! At worst, I see Volosin or Lewis causing the GOP to sweat in the 6th like they haven’t done in decades. At best, Peter or Jennifer pull out a close one in a Blue Tsunami!

      • Andy Schmookler

        Based on my observation the Republican electorate in the 6th, I would be surprised if there are many Dunbar supporters who will not unify with the Republican nominee.

        In 2012, many of likely the same voters (who now went for Dunbar) voted for Karen Kwiatkowski over Bob Goodlatte in the Republican primary. She got more than a third of the primary vote, as I recall. (Goodlatte had been in office long enough to create a lot of disappointment and bitterness– which I doubt Ben Cline is the target of.) Despite all that, in the general election the pull of Republican party loyalty was strong enough to give Goodlatte pretty much what you’d expect from a 2:1 Republican electorate and a political culture that has made party loyalty almost a religious commitment.

        • So what’s turnout looking like in VA-06 right now?

          • Andy Schmookler

            The value of my testimony is limited– I know nothing about precincts other than mine, and I wasn’t sure I understood what I was told about my precinct. But for what it’s worth, I believe that the Democratic turnout in my precinct is a higher proportion of the total vote thus far than usual.

          • Thanks.

        • BuckDem

          That’s unfortunate but I guess not too surprising. A cult demands absolute loyalty from it’s followers. My next hope is that Ben Cline doesn’t get them excited enough or reason enough to show up.

  • Scott Craig

    Have done the unthinkable to many — I quit voting. The complete abandonment of VA06 by Democrats leaves my voting pointless. Roanoke will NEVER have a representative reflective of its values because Democrats don’t even bother. No party backing — state or national. I have written to the ENTIRE state Democratic party and I got no response. None. Sick of the bs about a Blue Wave. Means zip to me and the rest of us here in 06. This should have been THE RACE to focus on. Guess how much work the party has done? Not a gd thing. No buzz. No flip it campaign, no promotion at all. Screw that. I’ve seen this movie 13 times now. I owe nothing to a party that ignores an entire congressional district.

  • cvryder2000

    WHY do both the state and national party ROUTINELY consign VA-6 to the GOPers? They don’t even TRY, FFS! They don’t support the candidates.They don’t back the ones who run. Bobby Goodlatte is gone, and Ben Cline is not that strong a candidate, but we’re still being ignored. Get on it, dammit!