Courtesy of The Crosstab, see below for current, estimated chance of Democrats winning each Congressional district in Virginia. Note that I’ve left Democratic-controlled VA-03, VA-04, VA-08 and VA-11 off the map, as they’re all 99% likely to remain Democratic. I last took a look at this back in February, when The Crosstab estimated Dems with a 64.7% chance of winning in VA-10, a 36.5% chance in VA-02, a 33% chance in VA-07, a 28.3% chance in VA-05, a 22.2% chance in VA-01, a 17.8% chance in VA-06 and a 1% chance in VA-09.
The big changes since February in Virginia are as follows:
- VA-10 up to 87.4% from 64.7%
- VA-07 up to 40.2% from 33%
- VA-05 up to 33.3% from 28.3%
- VA-02 down to 26.2% from 36.5%
- VA-01 down to 13.7% from 22.2%
- VA-06 down to 2.4% from 17.8%
- VA-09 holds steady at a 1% chance
My view is that VA-10 is an overestimate (I’d put it closer to a two-thirds chance, unless Shak Hill wins the GOP nomination, in which case I’d put it close to 100% for the Dems); VA-02 is probably too low (I’d put it closer to 40%), while the others seem about right. What do you think? Of course, we’ll see who the nominees are tomorrow, and will revisit this analysis after that settles out…
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