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DCCC/Global Strategy Group Poll: Hurt 44%-Perriello 42%

by: lowkell

Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 09:43:16 AM EDT

(UPDATE: Great new ad by Tom Perriello, love it! - promoted by lowkell)

I'm not sure quite what to make of this poll, showing that "Representative Tom Perriello is statistically tied with Republican candidate, Virginia State Senator Robert Hurt."
In the initial head-to-head in the race for Virginia's [5th] congressional district, Perriello is within the margin of error against Hurt, 42 to 44 percent.  Clark received 6 percent.  Conducted August 24-26, the poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
I mean, I hope it's true, but given that I wouldn't put much stock in a poll done for the National Republican Congressional Committee (and also given the SurveyUSA poll that showed Hurt leading 61%-35%), I'm not sure I should much stock in this one either. I'd at least like to see the "internals" on this one. How about you?

lowkell :: DCCC/Global Strategy Group Poll: Hurt 44%-Perriello 42%
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That sounds unbelievable (0.00 / 0)
Considering neither Robert Hurt or Tom Perriello are running in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District.  

Good catch. (0.00 / 0)
It's the DCCC's mistake, but I just "fixed" it in my blog post.  

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[ Parent ]
LOL (0.00 / 0)
yup. One would hope they could get the district right if they want any cred on their poll.

[ Parent ]
You knew someone would do it. (0.00 / 0)
I'd also be remiss if I didn't post a link to the SurveyUSA poll, conducted more recently, that shows Hurt leading by 26 points, 61%-35%:

Somehow this managed to not receive front page attention ;)

Polls Smolls (0.00 / 0)
I'm going to post a comment I made on Bearing Drift in response to this subject:

Polls smolls.

I am not sure who is to blame for the inaccuracy, but this most recent poll reported on by Survey USA for August is similar to the results they reported for July. Back in July, in a poll taken by Ayres McHenry & Associates for the pro-Republican group American Action Forum they reported only a 6% lead for Hurt.

I'm beginning to think Survey USA's results can't be trusted. Do their results pass the common sense test? I'm not sure what the problem is with Survey USA but the results they come up with for some reason do not seem to reflect reality.

Seems another poll has come out to question the validity of Survey USA poll results.

If you want voters to jump on the bandwagon perhaps you need to make sure a wagon is included in the parade?

I'm not sure what to think about these three results.  Two out of three show Pereillo within striking distance while which poll is odd man out?

Very hard to say (0.00 / 0)
At this point, I'd say our best bet might be to ignore the polls and just do whatever it is we planned to do in the first place.

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[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not. (0.00 / 0)
When it comes to different polling firms, the differences in results they get are a matter of 1) different methodologies, and 2) different makeups of the voting electorate.

SUSA thinks that the voting population will be a lot older and more Republican than other polling firms. Are they right or wrong? No one will know until Election Day. Just because two polls disagree with SurveyUSA doesn't make them right and SUSA wrong.

I'm reminded of the Governor's race last year. In fact, I even did a post on TC looking at whether SurveyUSA's polls were outliers:

Interestingly, the poll that caused me to write that post gave McDonnell a 19-point lead over Deeds, larger than any pollster at the time showed. And in the end, McDonnell won by 18 points.

[ Parent ]
Creigh Deeds (0.00 / 0)
Yeah, I heard that acclamation in favor of Survey USA results as well.  I heard this first on Bearing Drift.

I posted on Bearing Drift before the DCCC results came out.  Every heard about a push-poll?  Everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon and if those pushing the other wagon become disheartened?

If Democrats give up before we cross the starting line who obviously is going to be first crossing the finish line?

Do the Survey USA results make sense in Pereillo's district?

[ Parent ]
Yes, I've heard of a "push poll". (0.00 / 0)
You clearly have not.  

[ Parent ]
Push poll (0.00 / 0)
OK, I have heard of a push poll.  It is supposed to be one which pushes certain respondents towards a pre-determined answer based upon how the questions were phrased.

Now how would you describe inaccurate poll results reported on by pollsters?  What do we do if a charlatan sells their results not based upon the polls but hoping to influence the electorate?

OK, let me coin the new phrase.  Bandwagon poll results where those reporting polls hope to influence the results.  They will report the wagon leaving their barn has the majority jumping on it so that they can get bandwagon results.

You've heard of push polls, now you've heard about bandwagon polls.  You heard the term here first.

[ Parent ]
Ok then. (0.00 / 0)
A push poll is an underhanded tactic that calls thousands of voters, typically within a day or three of the election, under the guise of being an opinion research survey in order to spread a negative message. The most prominent example is South Carolina's 2000 Presidential Primary when thousands of voters were asked "Would you be less likely to support John McCain if you knew he had an illegitimate black daughter". Results from these "polls" are never recorded, and there are typically no more than two or three questions, because the purpose of the call is to spread that message to as many people as possible, not to collect data.

That is what is commonly referred to as a "push poll". It is commonly mistaken as any poll in which negative messages are tested, which are perfectly legitimate and what most polls done for campaigns of both parties do.

What you are referring to may be termed a "bandwagon poll", if you so desire. I would call it, "A poll that people dismiss because they don't like the results", but that's not as easy to roll off the tongue.

[ Parent ]
How about reality (0.00 / 0)
Two thirds of the polls disagree with the bandwagon poll results of Survey USA.  All of them report Pereillo is behind, but only Survey USA reports which wagon you need to hitch to if you are inclined to hitch to bandwagons.

Instead of immediately dismissing Survey USA results, I am willing to examine the two out three opposing results.

[ Parent ]
I'm willing to examine all of them. (0.00 / 0)
I'm not saying that Hurt is 26 points ahead of Hurt. But I don't dismiss the results just because "two thirds of the polls" (or two polls overall) show a different margin.

[ Parent ]
Who is being a troll? (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]

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