Gallup: Democrats Take 6-Point Lead on “Generic” Congressional Ballot

July 20, 2010

0Points

Oh noes, what a disaster for the Democrats coming this November! Oh wait, what's that the most respected pollster in America says? Hmmmm. But just a second, you say, what about the huge "enthusiasm gap" favoring Republicans? Yeah, well, you might want to read this first, before you panic prematurely (or celebrate, if you're a Republican). Among voters who are 'very excited' about voting this fall Republicans hold a 52-40 advantage. How much that matters is up for debate though. Scott Brown led the Massachusetts Senate race 59-40 with 'very excited' voters but won by only 5. Chris Christie led the New Jersey Governor's race 60-34 with 'very excited' voters but his final margin of victory was only 4 points. As I've said before unexcited voters count the same as excited ones and our polling so far this cycle has suggested the Democrats who answer our surveys vote, whether they're excited about it or not. So I'm not sure how much the wide GOP advantage with 'very excited' voters really matters.I mean, look, I'd still say that Republicans have the advantage in an off-year election with the Democrats controlling the White House and Congress, but I'm not so sure that Eric Cantor should be measuring the drapes quite yet. UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan has a reality check.

Oh noes, what a disaster for the Democrats coming this November! Oh wait, what’s that the most respected pollster in America says? Hmmmm.

But just a second, you say, what about the huge “enthusiasm gap” favoring Republicans? Yeah, well, you might want to read this first, before you panic prematurely (or celebrate, if you’re a Republican).

Among voters who are ‘very excited’ about voting this fall Republicans hold a 52-40 advantage. How much that matters is up for debate though. Scott Brown led the Massachusetts Senate race 59-40 with ‘very excited’ voters but won by only 5. Chris Christie led the New Jersey Governor’s race 60-34 with ‘very excited’ voters but his final margin of victory was only 4 points. As I’ve said before unexcited voters count the same as excited ones and our polling so far this cycle has suggested the Democrats who answer our surveys vote, whether they’re excited about it or not. So I’m not sure how much the wide GOP advantage with ‘very excited’ voters really matters.

I mean, look, I’d still say that Republicans have the advantage in an off-year election with the Democrats controlling the White House and Congress, but I’m not so sure that Eric Cantor should be measuring the drapes quite yet.

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan has a reality check.