As you can see from this chart by Arlington County Treasurer (and long-time analyst/forecaster of county elections) Frank O’Leary, Arlington Democrats have lost special elections, the last time being in 1999. O’Leary adds the following analysis:
…my visceral reaction is that turnout will be dismal and, if a record is to be set, it will be at the other end of the spectrum. Democratic voters, in particular, may be worn out by the prospect of a third outing in only seven months. Some may still be nursing grudges as a result of the five dimensional recent Democratic
primary (which evidenced a dismal turnout, even allowing for winter weather). Speaking of weather, Tuesday should be sunny with a high of 57 degrees.
In closing, I will not offer a prediction as to outcome. I will note, however, that the threshhold for a Democratic victory is a turnout of about 18,000.
So, what do you all think, can we get 10,000? 11,000? 12,000? Arlington Democrats out to vote on Tuesday, basically guaranteeing that we’ll elect Libby Garvey to the County Board – see my endorsement here – over right wingnut Mark Kelly (here’s the low-down on him)? Given that Arlington’s population is 200,000, and that it’s overwhelmingly Democratic, that doesn’t seem like too much to ask for. One thing’s for sure, there shouldn’t be any lines or wait to vote, so take a few minutes out of your day on Tuesday and cast a ballot – your right and (in my view) civic duty as an American. Thanks.