NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll of Virginia: Obama 49%-Romney 44%; Kaine 46%-Allen 46%


    The main findings from a brand new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Virginia?

    1. Barack Obama leads Willard “Mitt” Romney by 5 points (49%-44%) among likely voters, by 7 points (49%-42%) among registered voters. So, c’mon, registered voters, move yourselves over to “likely” please! ­čÖé

    2. Tim Kaine and George Allen are tied at 46% each among likely voters, with Kaine ahead by 1 point (46%-45%) among registered voters. I continue to find it fascinating that Obama’s doing better against Romney in Virginia than Kaine’s doing against Allen. Are there really Obama-Allen voters out there? It seems highly unlikely to me.

    3. Obama’s got a +10 favorable rating (53%-43%) in Virginia, compared to Romney’s +1 favorable (46%-45%) among likely voters. Again, it’s even a little better for Democrats when looking at registered voters.

    4. Note that this poll does not include Gary Johnson (Libertarian), Virgil Goode (Constitution) or Jill Stein (Green). My guess is that if they were included, it would bump up Obama by another couple points.

    So, overall excellent news, but as always, let’s not take this in any way as a signal to slow down our efforts, but instead as the green light to floor it, put the pedal to the metal, and any other cliche you can think of, for the next 53 days (or so) until Election Day!

    P.S. Obama leads in Florida (49%-44%) and Ohio (50%-43%) as well. No wonder why Willard’s been flailing around, lashing out, acting like a crazy man, etc. recently.

    • kindler

      ..which shows that the Kaine campaign has a hell of a lot more work to do defining both its candidate and its opponent.  

      Too many people still somehow believe that George Allen is that aw-schucks cowboy-next-door that he pretends to be — even despite his complete meltdown in the last election, which showed his ugly true colors for what they are.  

      People, does the word MACACA not mean anything to you?

    • pontoon

      Obama/Allen voters.  Have been a bit shocked by that fact, but we’ve seen it in out canvassing and phone banking.

    • Elaine in Roanoke

      Tim Kaine seems to have this experience. He was behind in most polls a month or two out from election day when he ran for governor, but he closed the gap handily. I don’t know what causes this. He’s running a textbook campaign. I guess people really have forgotten just how terrible Allen is.  

    • richmonder

      Perhaps I’m over-confident, but an Obama win in Virginia looks reasonable and probable. The reasons are known, not least of which is demographic trends since 2008. The Senate race is troubling, though. Allen is outspending Kaine several times over and the deluge of negative ads won’t let up until voting day. How does Kaine respond? His media team had better be smart and well prepared, doing a better job than they’ve done so far of reminding voters who Allen is as well as who Kaine is. A Republican-controlled Senate under an Obama 2nd term would be a major setback. But why Allen would slip through this time around is puzzling. It could only happen because voters are not paying attention, or forgetful and under-informed.