Barbara Comstock’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week

From the LuAnn Bennett for Congress campaign; I almost feel sorry for Comstock, but…nope, not after all the terrible things she’s done, sorry.

Barbara Comstock’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week

Ahead of Second Debate, Comstock Continues to Struggle Because of Her Shared Agenda with Trump

McLean – The second and third weeks of October are already shaping up to be the worst stretch of the 2016 race for Rep. Barbara Comstock, as new polling, race rating changes, and early voting counts all point to her shared agenda with Donald Trump and strong Democratic challenger LuAnn Bennett sinking her re-election hopes. The period culminated in two of the most prominent election watchers – Rothenberg/Gonzales and Cook Political Report – moving or planning to move VA-10 to “Toss Up.”

Comstock continues to be weighed down by her shared agenda with Donald Trump that’s out of line with her constituents. Trump and Comstock share the same positions on restricting women’s healthcare, opposing equal pay, opposing comprehensive immigration reform, opposing common-sense gun safety efforts, and denying climate change.

“Welcome to Barbara Comstock’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week,” Bennett spokesman Robert Howard said. “All of the momentum is behind LuAnn as the race heads into the home stretch, while Comstock is left to defend her shared agenda with Donald Trump.”

Here’s what happened last week:

Comstock Forced to Finally Renounce Trump, Yet Voters Saw Comstock’s Reversal for What It Is – A Political Ploy. After months of dodging the press and implicitly supporting Trump, Comstock was finally forced to publicly state whether she’d vote for Trump.

• By a two-to-one margin, voters say Comstock’s decision shows that she will do what is in her political self-interest, not that she is independent minded person. [Bennett poll, 10/14/16]
• Against a generic “Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won’t vote for him,” a simulated race moves to a 10-point advantage for Democrats (45% to 35%) [DCCC poll, 10/10/16]
• Polling on “Generic Democrat” ballots jump to +10 – the highest since the 2013 government shutdown. [Reuters/Ipsos, 10/12/16]

Renouncing Trump Fractures Comstock’s Base. Trump supporters have been vocal on social media about not supporting Comstock if she won’t support Trump. Here’s Virginian Republican blog Bull Elephant, “Is Barbara Comstock in Trouble?”:

“Many Trump supporters were furious when Comstock came out strongly against Trump saying he should leave the race. Those Trump supporters will not vote for Barbara Comstock. They have been very vocal on social media in their opposition to Comstock following her denunciation of Trump.” [Bull Elephant, 10/15/16]

Hillary Clinton’s Lead Grows in Virginia – and in Northern Virginia – As Split Ticket Voting Drops.Statewide, Clinton’s lead grows to 15 points; in Northern Virginia, Clinton is up 55% to 21%, 10% higher than the previous poll. [CNU Poll, 10/16/16]

• Comstock will now how to out run the top of her ticket at nearly historic levels in an era when split ticket voting is exceedingly uncommon: “Split-ticket districts, once common, are now rare” [Pew Research, 8/8/16]

Early Voting Skyrockets in Democratic Strongholds in Northern Virginia. Democratic stronghold Fairfax county and battleground county Loudoun both see spikes in early voting.

• “In Fairfax, which delivered the most Democratic votes for President Barack Obama in 2012, early voting was up more than 73 percent. In Loudoun, which had the second-most Obama votes in 2012, early voting was up almost 53 percent.” [Richmond Times Dispatch, 10/14/16]

Trusted Political Pundits and Race Raters Move VA10 to “Toss Up.” Rothenberg/Gonzales and Cook Political Report both moved VA-10 to “Toss Up.”

• Rothenberg/Gonzales: “Trump is at risk of getting crushed in this suburban/exurban Washington, D.C. district and could bring down GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock with him … This continues to be a race to watch and is a must-win for Democrats. Move from Lean Republican to Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.” [10/14/16]
• Cook Political Report: “If there are any races to watch … Barbara Comstock’s race in Virginia, which we’ll be moving to ‘Toss Up’ this week” [10/18/16]