New Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 12 Points in Virginia

From CNU’s Wason Center, for what it’s worth (again, I don’t have a great deal of confidence in CNU’s polls…):

Trump recovers slightly from ‘Access Hollywood’ low point, but Clinton still holds 12-point lead among Virginia voters

NEWPORT NEWS, Va. – Republican Donald Trump rebounded slightly from his low point after the “Access Hollywood” tape disclosure,  but Democrat Hillary Clinton still holds a double-digit lead  in Virginia, according to a tracking survey released Friday by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.  Clinton leads Trump among likely voters in Virginia, 45-33 percent.

“While Trump appears to have recovered a little of the support he lost after the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape, his reach continues to be no higher than the mid-30s,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center. “That ceiling is far too low to win, especially as Clinton’s share continues to rise.”

The survey was conducted Oct. 16-19 among 834 likely Virginia voters, prior to the third presidential debate. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.9 %.

A party loyalty gap has persisted since the tracking poll began in September, with 72 percent of Republicans now supporting Trump while 88 percent of Democrats support Clinton. Independents are edging toward Clinton, with 44 percent supporting her now, compared with 21 percent in September. That swing has come mostly at the expense of Libertarian Gary Johnson.

Regionally, Northern Virginia saw no Trump rebound, while Clinton continued to gain there, leading now 57-21 percent.  Trump topped 50 percent for the first time in his only regional stronghold, the rural and mountain South/Southwest, where he leads Clinton, 51-30.

“Clinton’s continued rise in Northern Virginia tells the larger story of political change in Virginia,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center. “Bluer and bluer voters in suburban Washington, and their like in Richmond and Hampton Roads, far outweigh rural voters’ preference for Trump.”