It’s 7 pm, and polls are now closed in Virginia. In this live blog of the election returns, I’ll primarily be checking the State Board of Elections website, VPAP and the Fairfax County Board of Elections site, among other sources. Feel free to use the comments section of this post to report what you’re hearing. The races I’ll be closely watching are, in roughly the following order: 1) the Tom Perriello vs. Ralph Northam Democratic gubernatorial primary; 2) the Justin Fairfax vs. Susan Platt vs. Gene Rossi Democratic Lt. Governor primary; 3) key Democratic House of Delegates primaries (e.g., HD2, HD13, HD21, HD31, HD42, HD51, HD67, HD68…); 4) the Bryce Reeves vs. Jill Vogel vs. Glenn Davis Republican Lt. Governor primary; 5) the Ed Gillespie vs. Frank Wagner vs. Corey Stewart Republican gubernatorial primary; 6) key Republican House of Delegates primaries (e.g., HD28, HD42, HD56, HD72).
I’m also very interested in what turnout will look like today. For comparison purposes, turnout in 2009, the last VA Dem gubernatorial primary, was 319,168. Turnout in 2013, when Dems had LG and AG primaries, was 152,076. Turnout for the 2006 Webb vs. Miller US Senate Dem primary was 155,784. Turnout in the 2005 VA Dem LG primary was 175,170. And turnout in the 2016 VA Dem presidential primary was 785,041. Can we match that last one or even come close to it? We’ll see very soon…
UPDATE 10:05 pm: With all precincts reporting, Jennifer Carroll Foy appears to have defeated Josh King in HD-2 by 10 votes, 2,180-2,170. For everyone who says their vote doesn’t matter…ha! Also, congratulations to Elizabeth Guzman on her 52%-48% win over Sara Townsend in HD-31, and to Tia Walbridge for her 52%-48% win over Mavis Taintor in HD-33. It continues neck and neck between Kathy Tran and Tilly Blanding n HD-42; guess we’ll see tomorrow. Congratulations to Kelly Fowler in HD-22; to Melissa Dart for winning the HD-56 nomination; to Rebecca Colaw in HD-64; to Karrie Delaney in HD-67; to Dawn Adams in HD-68; to Kimberly Tucker in HD-81; to David Rose-Carmack in HD-83; and to Francis Edwards in HD-99
UPDATE 10:03 pm: Barring something really strange, Ed Gillespie’s going to hang on against Corey Stewart, as he’s increasing his small lead with a dwindling number of outstanding precincts. It also looks lie Jill Vogel will win the GOP Lt. Governor nomination, albeit not by much.
UPDATE 9:38 pm: With 96.25% of precincts reporting, Ed Gillespie’s hanging on, with 152,488 votes to Corey Stewart’s 149,458. For LG, it looks like Jill Vogel is also hanging on for the GOP nomination over Bryce Reeves. Also of note: looks like around 350k votes on the “R” side, over 500k votes on the “D” side. Bodes very well for November.
UPDATE 9:32 pm: It’s amazing how bad most of the polling was in this race. I’d single out the Washington Post and Quinnipiac polls – both of which had Tom Perriello beating Ralph Northam and Ed Gilliespie absolutely CRUSHING Corey Stewart. Of all polls, Change Research actually called a super-close race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, although they totally missed the Democratic race. So…polls really aren’t good at this is the bottom line (although the final PPP poll for the Virginia Education Association basically nailed it, predicting a Northam win by 10 points over Perriello, which is almost exactly what happened).
UPDATE 9:18 pm: Tom Perriello tweets, “Congratulations to @RalphNortham. Let’s go win this thing—united. Let’s take back the House and ensure VA remains a firewall against hate.”
UPDATE 9:17 pm: Classy concession statement by Susan Platt. “We set out on a campaign to protect Virginians and stand up to Trump. I’m honored and humbled by the support we received. We came up short, but I am grateful to my supporters, particularly women, who stood with us every step of the way. I congratulate @FairfaxJustin on his victory and look forward to working with him to make VA a better place to work, live and raise a family. To @FairfaxJustin & @rossi4va, thank you for a spirited and substantive campaign of ideas that made our Party and the Commonwealth stronger. We must now unite as Democrats. We cannot allow the GOP to roll back rights for women and spread Trump’s hateful and dangerous agenda. There have been 40 LGs of VA: 6 Johns, 4 James, 2 Roberts, & 1 L. Douglas. I have no doubt that a Democratic woman will soon join that list.”
UPDATE 9:02 pm: In HD-2, it looks like it will come down to absentee ballots and even provisional ballots, as Jennifer Carroll Foy lead Josh King by just 1 vote (!), 2,116-2,115. Yep, every vote really does matter. Also, congratulations to Tia Walbridge, the Democratic nominee in HD-33. Still neck and neck between Kathy Tran and Tilly Blanding in HD-42, with 12/19 precincts reporting. Very close in HD-56 between Melissa Dart (51.3%) and Lizzie Drucker-Basch (48.7%), with 28/33 precincts reporting. House Democratic Leader Del. David Toscano (66.9%) is cruising over Ross Mittiga (33.1%) in HD-57. Del. Lashrecse Aird also cruising over Gerry Rawlinson in HD-63. Rebecca Colaw is leading in HD-64 with 46/51 precincts reporting, 38.4% to 33.1% for John Wandling and 28.6% for Jerry Cantrell. Congratulations to Dawn Adams, who looks to have won the 68th HoD district over Mary Jo Sheeley and Ben Pearson-Nelson. Also an easy win for Del. Jeion Ward over challenger Mic Harris in HD-92.
UPDATE 8:53 pm: The more I look at the outstanding precincts, I think Gillespie will hang on against Stewart, maybe even increase his lead somewhat in places like VA Beach, Fairfax County, Roanoke County, Richmond City, Norfolk, Newport News, Lynchburg, Henrico County and Chesapeake City. We’ll see soon enough…
UPDATE 8:39 pm: With 81% of precincts reporting on the D side, it’s Northam 55%-Perriello 45%; Fairfax 48.5%-Platt 39.6%-Rossi 11.9%. With 81% reporting on the R side, it’s Gillespie 43.45%-Stewart 43.09%. Whoa! And for LG on the R side, it’s Vogel 42.4%-Reeves 40.8%-Davis 16.8%.
UPDATE 8:28 pm: With 72% of precincts reporting, it’s Northam 56%-Perriello 44%. Looks like the public polls – and Perriello’s “internals” – were wayyyy off on this one. For LG, congratulations to Democratic nominee Justin Fairfax, who is the apparent Democratic nominee, four years after losing the AG nomination to Mark Herring in a squeaker. And it’s STILL super close on the Republican side, with Ed Gillespie (43.5%) barely ahead of the surprisingly strong Corey Stewart (42.9%); while Jill Vogel holds a slim lead (42.0%) over Bryce Reeves (41.1%).
UPDATE 8:23 pm: On the Democratic side, we can now congratulate Danica Roem as the nominee for HD-13; Kelly Fowler for HD-21; Hala Ayala for HD-51 (over Ken Boddye); Kimberly Tucker for HD-81 (over Nancy Carothers); David Rose-Carmack for HD-83 (over Justin Morgan). It appears that Elizabeth Guzman will edge out Sara Townsend, but let’s give it a little longer…
UPDATE 8:20 pm: On the Republican side, 69% of precincts reporting it’s super close for governor and LG. For House of Delegates, it looks like Del. Ron Villanueva is going to hold on, but not by a particularly impressive margin. Definitely need Kelly Fowler to beat him this November! In HD-28, Susan Stimpson is in last place, with Bob Thomas winning easily and Paul Milde second.
UPDATE 8:13 pm: Barring some sort of dramatic turnaround, it looks like it’s going to be Northam-Fairfax-Herring for the “blue team” this fall. Tight race in HD-42 between Tilly Blanding (52.3% with 26% of precincts reporting) and Kathy Tran (47.7%). Also VERY tight race in HD-64, with Rebecca Colaw (1,238 votes) barely ahead of John Wandling (1,219 votes) and Jerry Cantrell (1,034 votes).
UPDATE 8:09 pm: With 58% of precincts reporting, Northam leads Perriello 56%-44%; Fairfax 48.4%-Platt 39.7%. With 59% of precincts reporting, Gillespie’s at 43.9% and Stewart at 42.0%; Vogel and Reeves basically tied at 42% each. Craaazy (in more ways than one – heh)!
UPDATE 8:03 pm: With 22/23 precincts reporting in HD-02, Jennifer Carroll Foy holds a 28-vote lead over Josh King. Doesn’t get much closer than that! In HD-8, it looks like Steve McBride is easily defeating Bryan Keele despite this incident. In HD-13, with 19/20 precincts reporting, Danica Roem appears to have won easily (47.3%) over Steve Jansen (23.7%) and Mansimran Kahlon (23.4%). That one’s going to be a fun general election matchup against “Sideshow Bob” Marshall. In HD-21, it looks like Kelly Fowler will win easily – congratulations! In HD-33, Tia Walbridge leads 52.2%-47.8% with 17/31 precincts reporting.
UPDATE 8:00 pm: With around half of precincts reporting, it’s now Northam 122,535 (56.4%)-Perriello 94,880 (43.6%). It’s Fairfax 97,795 (48.6%)-Platt 79,580 (39.5%)-Rossi 24,069 (12.0%). With 51% of precincts reporting on the “R” side, it’s Gillespie hanging on to a slim lead over Stewart 43.8%-42.1%. Wow.
UPDATE 7:56 pm: It’s really striking how many more people cast Democratic ballots today than Republican ballots. Right now, for instance, with 1,105 precincts reporting, there have been about 140k Republican votes cast. On the Dem side, with 948 precincts reporting, we’re at 178k votes cast.
UPDATE 7:53 pm: With 1,105 precincts out of 2,561 counted on the “R” side, it’s Gillespie hanging on to a slim lead (43.5%) over Corey Stewart (41.8%) for governor; Jill Vogel holds a small lead (42.6%) over Bryce Reeves (40.6%). And on the Dem side, with 948 precincts reporting, it’s Northam 57.2%-Perriello 42.8% for governor; Fairfax 48.6%-Platt 39.5%-Rossi 11.9% for Lt. Governor.
UPDATE 7:47 pm: I’m going to focus a bit on the House of Delegates primaries. In HD-2, it’s neck and neck between Jennifer Carroll Foy (457 votes) and Josh King (446 votes). In HD-13, right now – with 4 of 20 precincts reporting – Danica Roem is way ahead, with 47.3% of the vote, to Steve Jansen (23.7%) and Mansimran Kahlon (23.4%). In HD-21, Kelly Fowler is cruising to victory over Tom Brock. In HD-31, it’s tight between Elizabeth Guzman (117 votes) and Sara Townsend (108 votes). In HD-33, it’s also tight between Tia Walbridge (1,580 votes) and Mavis Taintor (1,479 votes). In HD-56, it’s ALSO tight between Melissa Dart (1,024 votes) and Lizzie Drucker-Basch (979 votes). In HD-67, it’s still early but looking pretty good for Karrie Delaney (186 votes) over Hannah Risheq (114 votes) and John Carey (40 votes). In HD-68, Dawn Adams is leading with 2,222 votes, followed by Mary Jo Sheeley (1,779 votes) and Ben Pearson-Nelson (992 votes).
UPDATE 7:45 pm: Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) of the Cook Political Report tweets, “Projection: Ralph Northam (D) has won the #VAGOV Dem primary, defeating Tom Perriello (D).” Very hard to argue with that, given the numbers I’m seeing…sigh.
UPDATE 7:42 pm: With 495 of 2,561 precincts reporting on the Dem side, it’s Northam 56.3%-Perriello 43.7% for governor. With 501 precincts reporting on the Dem side, it’s Fairfax 47.1%-Platt 41.0%-Rossi 11.9% for LG. On the Republican side, it’s Gillespie 42.8%-Stewart 41.6%-Wagner 15.6% for governor; Vogel 42.8%-Reeves 39.7%-Davis 17.5% for LG.
UPDATE 7:33 pm: With 351 precincts reporting on the Dem side, it’s now Northam 28,756 (55.8%)-Perriello 22,773 (44.2%) for governor; it’s Fairfax 23,319 (47.1%)-Platt 20,229 (40.9%)-Rossi 5,949 (12.0%) for Lt. Governor. With 403 precincts reporting on the R side, it’s Gillespie 18,988 (43.4%)-Stewart 17,976 (41.1%) for governor; it’s Vogel 17,585 (41.4%)-Reeves 17,522 (41.3%) for Lt. Governor.
UPDATE 7:27 pm: Now 240 precincts reporting, and Gillespie’s ahead of Stewart 44.9%-42.1%; Vogel ahead of Reeves 42.2%-41.3%. On the Democratic side, with 197 precincts reporting, it’s Northam 52.3%-Perriello 47.7%; Fairfax 45.7%-Platt 42.2%-Rossi 12.1%. Dave Wasserman tweets, “Northam (D) leads Perriello (D) 59%-41% in first heavily AA precinct in Henrico Co. Need to see more, but that bodes well for him.”
UPDATE 7:25 pm: With 61 of 2,561 precincts reporting, it’s Corey Stewart 3,044 (44.8%)-Ed Gillespie 2,957 (43.5%)-Frank Wagner 800 (11.8%). On the GOP Lt. Governor side, it’s Bryce Reeves 3,166 (46.3%)-Jill Vogel 2,559 (37.4%)-Glenn Davis 1,121 (16.4%).
UPDATE 7:20 pm: With 26 of 2,561 precincts reporting, it’s Tom Perriello 1,198 (51.4%)-Ralph Northam 1,133 (48.6%). On the Dem LG side, it’s Justin Fairfax 998-Susan Platt 944-Gene Rossi 283. Looks like a mix of locales, including some rural (e.g., Washington County, Pittsylvania County) and some suburban (e.g., Henrico, one precinct in Arlington).
UPDATE 7:14 pm: Geoffrey Skelley of Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” tweets – “As we wait for #VAGov, let me lay out some geography to keep in mind tonight on the Dem side…Perriello should clean up in central/south-central VA as well as farther west. He represented VA-5, every indication is he’s strong there…Northam should do well in Hampton Roads & Tidewater. His state senate seat was in the vicinity & he did well there in the ’13 LG primary…NoVA & Richmond are the battlegrounds in #VAGov D primary. Really tough to say what will happen in those areas…wouldn’t surprise me at all if Perriello is leading handily in the early going bc of where 1st reporting areas are.”
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