After weeks of no polls at all, it looks like everyone and their uncle decided to poll Virginia this week. This is the fourth poll, by my count, in the last day or so. And it’s a good one from a Democratic perspective. here are highlights from Quinnipiac University’s new poll:
“In the Virginia governor’s race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam tops the magic 50 percent mark among likely voters, leading Republican Ed Gillespie 51 – 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra gets 3 percent.” That’s great news if true; would mean major pickups for Democrats in the House of Delegates, in addition to a statewide sweep.
“There are wide gender and racial gaps as men back the Republican 49 – 39 percent while women back the Democrat 61 – 34 percent. White voters back Gillespie 49 – 44 percent while non-white voters back Northam 74 – 16 percent.” Wow, huge “gender gap” there. Also, sadly, a huge racial gap, even as Republican policies seriously hurt people of ALL races.
“Northam gets a 47 – 31 percent favorability rating among Virginia likely voters. Gillespie gets 40 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable.” That’s also a very encouraging finding. Of course, “Enron Ed” comes across as likable, but bottom line is he’s a “K Street” corporate lobbyist, the epitome of the “swamp,” a guy who’s spent his life serving himself (while Ralph Northam has served OTHERS), whose policies would be disastrous for Virginia.
“For 27 percent of Virginia likely voters, the economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor. Another 21 percent cite health care, as 12 percent list education, 11 percent say taxes and 10 percent say immigration.” No real surprises there; pretty standard.
“Virginia likely voters disapprove 58 – 39 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Democrats disapprove 97 – 3 percent and independent voters disapprove 64 – 32 percent, as Republicans approve 88 – 8 percent.” No surprises there either; amazing that Trump’s even at 39%, really.
“Voters approve 56 – 37 percent of the job Gov. Terry McAuliffe is doing, including 91 – 3 percent among Democrats and 60 – 32 percent among independent voters. Republicans disapprove 82 – 10 percent...U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine gets a 55 – 40 percent approval rating among likely voters, with a 62 – 33 percent approval rating for U.S. Sen. Mark Warner. ” Strong numbers for Gov. McAuliffe, Sen. Kaine and particularly Sen. Warner.
P.S. They kind of hid this in their detailed methodology section, but of course it’s important to know what their sample looked like…
LIKELY VOTERS PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 26%
Democrat 33
Independent 34
Other/DK/NA 7
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