Home 2017 Races Two New Polls and One “Poll” Show Virginia Governor’s Race Neck and...

Two New Polls and One “Poll” Show Virginia Governor’s Race Neck and Neck with 3+ Days to Go

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According to RealClear Politics, there are three new polls out today of the Virginia governor’s race: The Polling CompanyRasmussen Reports, and Roanoke College. I’m basically going to ignore the first one, because we’re talking about Kellyanne Conway’s polling firm sold to GOP PR shop. ‘Nuff said, other than – for the record – they claim that Ed Gillespie is up 3 points (46%-43%) over Ralph Northam.

Now, on to the plausible polls. Yes, I’m counting Rasmussen Reports as plausible, even though it’s a Republican-leaning outfit. Why? Because in 2013, they were right with the rest of the polling pack, with Terry McAuliffe up 7 points over Ken Cuccinelli a week out from the election. Given that McAuliffe ended up winning by just 2.5 points, it’s hard to accuse Rasmussen of being biased against Democrats, at least in that case. As for 2017, Rasmussen has the race tied, 45%-45%. Now, one possible indication this poll could be biased towards Republicans is the Trump approval numbers – “Forty-five percent (45%) approve of the job Trump is doing; 54% disapprove.” That’s significantly higher than almost any other poll I’ve seen of Virginia, which generally have Trump in the upper 30s to maybe 40%. So…who knows, but something to keep in mind.

The last poll is the one I take most seriously in the sense that it’s definitely not a Republican outfit – Roanoke College. Here are the key takeaways from that poll.

  • “Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie are tied (47%-47%), while Libertarian Cliff Hyra garners three percent of likely voters, and only three percent remain undecided.”
  • “Democrat Justin Fairfax and Republican Jill Vogel are tied (45%-45%) in the race for lieutenant governor, and incumbent Democrat Mark Herring and Republican John Adams are also tied (46%-46%) in the attorney general contest.”
  • Top voter concerns, as usual, are the economy and health care, followed by education.
  • “More than half of those polled (53%) disapprove of the way President Donald Trump his handling his job, and just over one-third (36%) approve.” Those numbers look about right, which again makes me take this poll a lot more seriously than Rasmussen.
  • Northam leads 84%-9% among African-American voters, while Gillespie leads 57%-36% among whites.
  • Northam leads 89%-4% among liberals and 56%-34% among “moderates,” while Gillespie leads 81%-17% among conservatives. These crosstabs don’t seem to mesh with the overall results, as liberals plus “moderates” combined should far outnumber conservatives alone. Weird.
  • Northam leads in Northern Virginia (54%-42%), Tidewater (50%-42%) and Richmond/Central VA (47%-43%), while Gillespie leads in Southwest VA (59%-37%), Southside (52%-33%) and the Shenandoah Valley (60%-36%).

Bottom line: Coming down the home stretch, this race looks very tight, that is if you put any stock in the polling of course. So…let’s make sure we get out our voters, because this could all come down to turnout on Tuesday.

  • Gillespie continues his race-baiting and demagoguery…

    http://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/takeaknee.jpg

    • Perseus1986

      I laugh when I see the primary-era signs for Gillespie that say “For ALL Virginians”

      • woodrowfan

        I am tempter to take a marker and add in “white” right after the word “ALL”

  • franklin200

    The down ballot races look a little funny. I would expect Herring to run a few points ahead of Northam.

  • Perseus1986

    I remember the last primary poll had Perriello beating Northam, then Northam went out and thumped Perriello. It seems like Northam does better than polls indicate, as he outperformed the polls, and McAullife, in 2013 as well.

    I also have a hard time believing that after a primary election where Ed Gillespie received 70k votes less than the losing Democratic candidate (who lost by another 60k votes to Northam), so many voters are going to come out of the woodwork to tip things in favor of Gillespie and the GOP downballot.

  • old_redneck

    A week before the Presidential election my wife predicted Trump would win.

    She’s now called it for Gillespie.

    We are screwed. And we have only ourselves and the do-nothing, incompetent DPVA to blame.

    • ekg_rulez

      Non Virginian here. I will be phone banking this weekend from out of state to encourage Virginia voters such as yourself to get out and vote. Bring your friends and family members to vote as well. Don’t just vote during presidential elections. Vote!

      • msuhockey#1

        Don’t forget to get the dead and illegals to vote too.