Home 2018 Elections POLL: Who Do You Support for the VA-07 Democratic Nomination?

POLL: Who Do You Support for the VA-07 Democratic Nomination? [FINAL: Spanberger 60.4%-Ward 39.6%]


I haven’t done an online/unscientific poll for VA-07 (home of one of Virginia’s greatest embarrassments, Rep. Dave Brat) since mid-March, so I’m figuring that now’s not a bad time to check in again. Note that the last poll had Abigail Spanberger leading Dan Ward by a big margin (90.5%-6.6%). Now, with just 1 1/2 months to go until the June 12 Democratic primary, has anything changed? Let’s find out! I’ll leave this poll open until May 2.

P.S. Just to be 100% clear, since there have been a few questions, here’s how I set the poll so that people SHOULD NOT be able to vote more than once…attempted repeat voters should be blocked by both cookie and IP address.

  • Sue Richman

    Why bother with an unscientific poll? What’s the purpose?

    • Roger Miller

      It’s a spot quiz. How well organized and enthusiastic is each campaign?

      • Exactly, that’s one of several reasons to do this.

        • Veena Gupta Lothe

          What are the other reasons? Curious

          • Gives an idea what our readers are thinking; will be interesting to compare to the actual results on June 12; can see change over time using the same format/methodology; campaigns seem to love competing in them; people love voting in them and checking the results; they’re fun to do. Kinda like straw polls, but without shaking them down for money. LOL

          • Veena Gupta Lothe


          • Cara Ziegel

            Actually, in more urban areas, I suspect online polls are about as effective as phone polls – phone polls only use land lines, and fewer and fewer people even have land lines.

            But – probably not so much in the wide rural swathes this district includes.

            Still, any data point can tell you something.

          • Exactly. By the way, I checked our online, unscientific polls for the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial primary. The first one (https://polldaddy.com/polls/9667161/results/), in February 2017, had Ralph Northam up 51%-48% over Tom Perriello, which is pretty accurate (the final result was Northam 55%-Perriello 44%) actually – called the winner and was closer on the margin than most “scientific” polls, which were all over the place (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2017#Polling). The second one, in June 6, 2017 (https://polldaddy.com/polls/9763099/results/), had it Perriello 53%-Northam 43%, which was worse than the first one, but note that it also came after months of us endorsing Perriello and posting frequently in support of him on Blue Virginia, so I guess it’s not surprising the Blue Virginia audience would have moved more to Tom by that point.

  • OrangeDem

    Ward has been campaigning really actively in the Orange area. Tons of signs out, and has had canvassers going door to door in the town proper. Spanberger has little if any presence.

    • David

      At this point, I think both candidates are playing to their stronger areas of the district. I would think Ward’s background gives him the edge in rural/small town areas like Orange while Abby’s probably focused on the RVA suburbs.

      • Justin Jones

        Our campaign is focused on all ten counties, and we’re actively deploying our 1,115+ volunteers on a weekly basis through phone banks and door knocking. Just this past weekend alone, our field team was in six counties knocking doors: Henrico, Chesterfield, Spotsylvania, Louisa, Goochland, and Culpeper. During the weekdays we have multiple phone banks where we contact voters from every corner of the 7th.

        • David

          Wow! Good to hear there’s so much energy to unseat Brat!

  • Dave Arlington


  • Kenneth Ferland

    Looks to be a very competitive race.

  • Rick Sample

    Spanberger and Ward are both good candidates. Is there a poll that shows which candidate does better against Brat?

    • I haven’t seen one, but perhaps they have “internals” on that?