Home 2019 Elections Brand-New Poll: Abigail Spanberger 46%-Dave Brat 45% Among Likely Voters; Spanberger Leads...

Brand-New Poll: Abigail Spanberger 46%-Dave Brat 45% Among Likely Voters; Spanberger Leads by 3 Points Among “Most Committed Voters”

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This new poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University is good news for Democrat Abigail Spanberger, just eight days from the most important midterm elections of our lives. Also note that it’s better, from a Democratic perspective, than the NY Times poll in mid-September that found Brat up 4 points. Here are the highlights of the brand-new Wason Center poll:

  • In the “likely voter model,” Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican incumbent Dave Brat “are in a statistical tie, 46% Spanberger, 45% Brat.” Also, “Libertarian candidate Joseph Walton has 4% and 3% are undecided.”
  • In the model “restricted to the most committed voters, Spanberger has a 3-point lead, 48%-45%, just inside the margin of error.” In this model, Libertarian Walton gets 3% of the vote.
  • “A 16-point “enthusiasm gap” boosts challenger Spanberger, as 78% of Democrats are “very enthusiastic” about voting, versus 62% of Republicans.”
  • “Among likely voters, 89% of Republicans plan to vote for Brat, compared to 96% of Democrats for Spanberger. Among committed voters, 90% of Republicans will voter for Brat, while
    Spanberger maintains 96% of Democrats. Among  Independents who are likely voters, Brat holds an 8-point advantage, 46% to 38%. That lead decreases to 6 points, 46%-40%, in the committed voter model.”
  • 78% of Democrats say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting, compared to 62% of Republicans and 58% of Independents.
  • Men support Brat by 15 points (52%-37%) while women support Spanberger by 14 points (53%-39%).
  • Young people support Spanberger (52%-38% among “committed voters” under age 44), while Brat leads by 5 points (49%-44%) among “committed voters” age 45 and older.
  • White “committed voters” (who make up 75% of the poll’s demographics) support Brat 54%-39% while black “committed voters” (who make up 17% of the poll’s demographics) support Spanberger 88%-6%.
  • “While 47% of voters in the 7th District approve of the job President Trump is doing, 51% disapprove; 30% strongly approve, while 43% strongly disapprove”
  • “In the U.S. Senate contest, likely voters in the GOP-leaning 7th District favor incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican Corey Stewart, 48%-43%.”
  • The partisan breakdown in this poll is 34% Republican, 34% Democratic and 27% Independent (note: when pressed, Independents lean Republican, 43%-33%).