On Tuesday, Monmouth released a poll of VA-10 which found that Democratic nominee Jennifer Wexton held a 6-point (50%-44%) lead over Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) among likely voters using the “standard midterm turnout model,” with Wexton’s lead increasing to 9 points (52%-43%) using “a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts similar to the pattern seen in last year’s gubernatorial contest.” Now, a new poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University (CNU) finds Wexton with a 7-point lead (51%-44%) among likely voters, with the lead increasing to 11 points (53%-42%) in a “voter model further restricted to the most committed voters.” So that’s basically in sync with Monmouth, maybe even a bit better for the Democrats. Here are a few more findings from the CNU poll:
- “Democrats benefit from a 16-point ‘enthusiasm gap’ in the 10th Congressional District.”
- “51% of voters in the district strongly disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, while 25% strongly approve.” Overall, 38% approve of the job Trump’s doing vs. 59% who disapprove.
- “In the U.S. Senate contest, Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine holds a 21-point advantage over Republican Corey Stewart among 10th Congressional District voters, 55%-34%.”
- “Independents overall break for Wexton by 18%, but that lead among Independents grows to 23% in the more restrictive turnout model.”
- “Wexton holds a lead among women of 11%, and that lead grows to 19% in the more restrictive model.”
- “Wexton holds a strong lead among voters under age 45,
but voters 45 and older split their vote nearly evenly between the two.” - “If the electorate in the 10th Congressional District is similar to the electorate in 2017, Wexton may actually overperform our more restrictive 2nd model. In this analysis,
Republicans and Democrats are divided fairly equally. But in 2017, Democrats outperformed Republicans as a share of the electorate by 9 points.”
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