Home 2020 Elections New UMW Poll: Leading Dem 2020 Candidates Would CRUSH Trump in Virginia...

New UMW Poll: Leading Dem 2020 Candidates Would CRUSH Trump in Virginia (Biden 55%-Trump 37%; Warren 53%-Trump 38%, etc.)

"2020 is looking to be yet another tough year for the GOP in the Old Dominion"


A new poll by the University of Mary Washington is out. Here are the main findings. The poll is “a representative sample of 1009 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia.”

  • By a 39%-54% (-15 points) margin, Virginians DISAPPROVE of President Trump. Note that the poll was conducted *before* the blockbuster news about Trump’s Ukraine scandal came out, so most likely the numbers will come down from those.
  • By a 47%-35% (+12 points) margin, Virginians APPROVE of how Gov. Ralph Northam is handling his job as governor.
  • In the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, Virginians would vote for Joe Biden over Donald Trump by 55%-37% (+18 points); for Elizabeth Warren over Trump 53%-38% (+15 points); for Bernie Sanders over Trump 53%-38% (+15 points); and for Kamala Harris over Trump 50%-38% (+12 points).
  • “Whites split almost evenly between Biden and Trump, while African Americans favored Biden by an 84-10 percent margin and Latino Americans favored him by a 58-32 percent margin, with the rest undecided.”
  • “Biden had a huge advantage over Trump in Northern Virginia, where the former vice president enjoys a 69 percent to 26 percent margin, and in Tidewater, where Biden was favored by a 53 percent to 37 percent margin. Respondents in the northwestern regions of the state beyond the Washington suburbs backed Trump over Biden by a 54 percent to 37 percent margin, the president’s best regional performance in Virginia.”
  • “’The latest Mary Washington survey demonstrates that Donald Trump faces an uphill battle in Virginia next year against a range of possible challengers,’ said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of its Center for Leadership and Media Studies. ‘While a lot can change in 14 months, these are not encouraging results for Trump and other Republicans who might be on the ballot with him next year.’”
  • “The results in the survey suggest that at this point 2020 is looking to be yet another tough year for the GOP in the Old Dominion.”



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