Very interesting Gene Rossi Show today, with a great lineup of guests and lots to talk about. Two of those guests were political gurus Matt Rogers and Chaz Nuttycombe, with the topic of conversation the 2020 presidential election. See below for audio, following a few highlights, along with my comments in parentheses/italics.
- Asked if he had to bet money right now for the 2020 general election vote, if it were held tomorrow between Trump and a “generic” Democrat, Matt Rogers predicted that the Democratic nominee would get “north of 310…316…because, fundamentally, the landscape is not good for the president…this incredibly unpopular, many would say criminal, president has put other states into play that Republicans haven’t had to worry about spending money in for decades – Texas, Arizona, Georgia…Florida…Ohio, possibly even Kansas…he has had to forget about some other, used-to-be swing states that Democrats now don’t have to spend money in – Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan isn’t looking very good for the president.” (I mostly agree with Matt on this analysis, although I *do* worry that we shouldn’t get too optimistic, because for one thing, who knows what Putin will pull this time. Also, how much voter suppression will Trump/Barr/etc. come up with to reduce Democratic votes? And how strong will the Democratic nominee, who will *not* be “generic,” be?)
- Gene pointed out, playing “devil’s advocate,” that Trump’s advantages are: 1) the strong economy, even if it was inherited from President Obama; 2) being the incumbent; 3) not having a serious primary challenge. (I agree with Gene on all of this)
- Chaz said he’s “far more bearish on the Democrats’ chances in the presidential election; I really see it as a tossup.” Chaz argued that the “three areas that are going to decide this election pretty much are Wisconsin, Arizona and Nebraska’s second district.” (Yeah, I’m more with Matt on this one, although certainly it’s possible that it could come down to something like Chaz’s scenario)
- Chaz predicts: “The Democratic nominee’s going to be Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders, I think we can all agree on that. It’s not going to be Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg or anyone below.” According to Chaz, the big weakness of Biden is of enthusiasm for him among “the youth vote,” while the big weakness of Sanders is he “cannot turn out the African-American vote like Joe Biden can.” Chaz also doesn’t believe that “every single” Democratic primary voter will vote in the general election for a candidate who they don’t currently support. Chaz predicts that Trump would get 270 electoral votes if the election were held tomorrow. (I think this is too pessimistic, but Chaz does raise some serious points about Democrats coming back together, let alone enthusiastically, for the ultimate nominee; and also, to an extent, the relative weaknesses of Biden and Sanders. I’m not convinced that the Dem nominee will be Biden or Sanders, by the way, as I still could see scenarios for another candidate, or even for a “brokered convention.” We’ll see.)
- Chaz thinks that the economy and health care will be the two biggest issues in the 2020 election, with the possible addition of gun reform. Matt thinks health care is “clearly” going to be the biggest issue, “especially if the nominee is Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren…and it’s not going to break well for the party that isn’t doing well amongst women right now.” Matt also mentioned the economy and Trump’s “haphazard, near-bungling of us into war,” plus “the president being impeached.” Great point by Matt, namely that everyone knows this time around that Trump *could* actually win the election, whereas in 2016 a lot of people got overconfident about Hillary Clinton’s chances. Matt also said he still thinks there’s a path for another Democratic candidate besides Sanders or Biden, and also the chance of a “brokered convention.” (I agree that health care will be a big issue, but I also think that Democrats need to make this a referendum on Trump, which to me is what this election is really all about. I also agree with Matt that it’s still possible for a candidate not named “Joe Biden” or “Bernie Sanders” to win the Democratic nomination.)