A high-quality (in this case, A+ rated by FiveThirtyEight.com) poll of Virginia’s 2020 Democratic primary is *finally* out this morning. See here for all the details from Monmouth, and below for some highlights.
- “Among Virginia voters who are likely to participate in the Democratic primary on March 3, support currently stands at 22% for Bloomberg, 22% for Sanders, and 18% for Biden. They are trailed by Pete Buttigieg (11%), Amy Klobuchar (9%), and Elizabeth Warren (5%). Another 11% of likely primary voters remain undecided and do not lean toward any candidate at this time.”
- “Just 1 in 4 (25%) likely Virginia Democratic primary voters are firmly set on their candidate choice (and another 1% have already voted absentee). Most are open to voting for a different candidate on March 3, with 18% saying there is a high possibility of this happening, 34% saying this is a moderate possibility and 10% saying this is a low possibility.”
- “In a Sanders versus Biden matchup, the former vice president has a small lead among white voters (49% Biden to 40% Sanders) and an even wider lead among black voters (63% to 27%). In a Sanders versus Bloomberg matchup, the white voter gap is about the same as for Biden (50% Bloomberg to 39% Sanders), while Sanders has a slight lead among black voters (43% Bloomberg to 49% Sanders). Men are split on Biden (48%) and Sanders (42%), while Biden wins among women (54% to 35%). Against Bloomberg, the race is somewhat closer among women (46% Bloomberg to 42% Sanders) than it is among men (49% Bloomberg to 39% Sanders).”
- “In Sanders versus either Klobuchar or Buttigieg, Sanders wins the black vote by a large margin (60% to 26% against Klobuchar and 56% to 31% against Buttigieg), but loses the white vote (35% to 52% against Klobuchar and 37% to 48% against Buttigieg). Both men and women are nearly evenly divided when Sanders is matched up against either Klobuchar or Buttigieg.”
- “Virginia voters are looking for electability – 62% say beating Trump is more important to their vote than lining up with a candidate on any policy issue.”
- “Among those who say beating Trump is their top priority, 23% support Biden, 23% support Bloomberg, and 17% support Sanders. Among those who say it is not a top priority, 31% support Sanders and 21% back Bloomberg.”
- “Virginia Democratic primary voters are divided on the possibility of beating Trump in November. Nearly half (45%) think the incumbent will be reelected, while an identical number (45%) think he will lose to the Democrat. A bare majority (54%) of likely primary voters feel optimistic about this year’s election (27% very and 27% somewhat), while 41% are pessimistic (20% very and 21% somewhat). Black voters (72%) are more likely than white voters (46%) to feel optimistic about the 2020 election.”