Home 2020 Elections New Virginia Poll: Gov. Northam at 76%-22% Approval on COVID-19 Response; Biden...

New Virginia Poll: Gov. Northam at 76%-22% Approval on COVID-19 Response; Biden Leads Trump 51%-41%

Biden's lead strongest among women, young people, college-educated, minority voters

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A new poll is out today, from the Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs. See below for the highlights.

  • First off, Virginians overwhelmingly (76%-22%) approve of Gov. Northam’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, “with 40% strongly approving.”
  • Note that Northam “enjoys a high level of approval regardless of party affiliation,” including “7-in-10 Republicans and independents strongly or somewhat approving” and “nine-in-10 Democrats…with 55% strongly approving.”

  • Next, on the presidential race, Joe Biden holds a strong (10-point) lead over Donald Trump “among likely voters in Virginia.”
  • For comparison purposes, note that Barack Obama won Virginia by 6 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012, while Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 5 points in 2016.
  • Also note that Ralph Northam won the governor’s election in 2017 by 8.9 points. So…if Biden actually does end up winning Virginia by 10 points, it would be a greater margin than Obama, Clinton or Northam.
  • A 10-point Biden win this November also would, almost certainly, be a big help to the reelection campaigns of Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07), as well as a potential boost to the Democratic nominees for Congress in VA01 and VA05.
  • Also note the detailed breakouts on the Biden vs. Trump results: 1) Biden leads in every region of Virginia, except for the “West”; 2) Biden holds a huge lead (57%-36%) among women, while trailing by 4 points among men; 3) in terms of age, Biden’s biggest lead is among those in the 18-34 bracket (59%-27%), followed by those in the 34-44 range (56%-37%), and getting narrower the older the range goes; 4) in terms of education level, Biden holds a huge lead (58%-34%) among college graduates, a narrow lead (50%-43%) among those with some college and trails by 13 points (40%-53%) among those with a high school degree or less; 5) Trump leads by 12 points (53%-41%) among white voters but trails by 60 points (15%-75%) among minority voters.