See below – and here – for the latest weekly COVID-19 University of Virginia model report, including “anticipated prevalence” at schools. A few highlights include:
- “Surges in most health districts are abating. Only one health district (Mount Rogers) remains in the upward swing of a surge scenario.”
- “Incidence is declining statewide as we closely approach a state of uncertainty in the Fall.”
- “With trends continuing in their current trajectory, we would expect to see over 187,000 total cases in Virginia by Thanksgiving.”
- “Statewide positivity rate hovers around 5-7% while the average time from onset to diagnosis has returned to the duration observed in the May and June (5.8 days).”
- “The transmission rate again remains below 1.0 statewide and has shown more stability than in past weeks. The transmission rate exceeds 1.0 only in Northern Virginia.”
- “[M]ost counties have a 50% or greater likelihood of having at least one infected student in a school size of 500. For about half the counties, the chances are about 2 in 3.”
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