Home COVID-19 8/28 UVA COVID-19 Model: Surges In Most Health Districts Abating; Rt <1.0;...

8/28 UVA COVID-19 Model: Surges In Most Health Districts Abating; Rt <1.0; Anticipated Prevalence of COVID-19 in Schools


See below – and here – for the latest weekly COVID-19 University of Virginia model report, including “anticipated prevalence” at schools.  A few highlights include:

  • “Surges in most health districts are abating. Only one health district (Mount Rogers) remains in the upward swing of a surge scenario.”
  • “Incidence is declining statewide as we closely approach a state of uncertainty in the Fall.”
  • “With trends continuing in their current trajectory, we would expect to see over 187,000 total cases in Virginia by Thanksgiving.”
  • “Statewide positivity rate hovers around 5-7% while the average time from onset to diagnosis has returned to the duration observed in the May and June (5.8 days).”
  • “The transmission rate again remains below 1.0 statewide and has shown more stability than in past weeks. The transmission rate exceeds 1.0 only in Northern Virginia.”
  • “[M]ost counties have a 50% or greater likelihood of having at least one infected student in a school size of 500. For about half the counties, the chances are about 2 in 3.”


Sign up for the Blue Virginia weekly newsletter

Previous articleICYMI: Khizr Khan and Virginia Veterans Slam Donald Trump’s Performance As Commander in Chief
Next articleSaturday News: “The Mystery of Europe’s Less Deadly Coronavirus Second Wave”; “Trump Thinks Racism Is His Best Chance”; “What a difference a day makes: A reprise of the March on Washington”; R.I.P. Chadwick Boseman