Home 2020 Elections New Poll Shows Dr. Cameron Webb in Virtual Tie in VA-05

New Poll Shows Dr. Cameron Webb in Virtual Tie in VA-05

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From the Cameron Webb for Congress (VA05) campaign:

New Poll Shows Dr. Cameron Webb in Virtual Tie in VA-05

Charlottesville, VA — Dr. Cameron Webb, Democratic nominee for Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, released the following statement regarding the release of a new poll which shows Webb within 2 points of his Republican opponent and with a clear path to victory:

“This poll reflects the success of our grassroots outreach to voters all across the district” said Dr. Cameron Webb. “These results demonstrate that the voters appreciate our message of consensus, pragmatism, and making sure no one is left behind. It shows that they agree with our focus on the issues that impact their daily lives like bringing down the cost of healthcare and expanding economic opportunity by investing in education, job training programs, and rural broadband.”

From the poll:

With just under three months left before the General Election, new research conducted by Global Strategy Group in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District shows Cameron Webb has a clear path to victory. Voters for this open seat are more open to Democrats than in years past: Webb and Biden are both already in striking distance and balanced messaging puts Webb in the lead against Bob Good. Should Webb have the funds to communicate, he is in a strong position to win come November.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

  • This is not 2016. VA-05 is competitive, with Democrats competing up and down the ticket. In 2016, Trump won by thirteen points. Now he is an unpopular incumbent with a -7 net favorable rating (45% favorable, 52% unfavorable), who leads by only two points (Biden 45%, Trump 47%). And he’s dragging the Republican party down with him. Voters are just as favorable toward Democrats in Congress (47% favorable, 46% unfavorable) as they are toward Republicans in Congress (48% favorable, 45% unfavorable).
  • Webb starts in a virtual tie with plenty of room for growth. Webb begins the race down only two points (Webb 42%, Good 44%). But with 13 percent of voters still undecided and neither candidate particularly well known (45% familiar with Webb, 49% familiar with Good) there is plenty of room for growth. And importantly, undecided voters are even less favorable towards Trump than the electorate overall (37% favorable, 51% unfavorable), suggesting Webb may have the edge.
  • When voters are introduced to both candidates’ backgrounds, Webb takes the lead. When voters hear balanced profiles for both Cameron Webb and Bob Good that simulate the candidates’ stump speeches to date, Webb takes a seven-point lead (Webb 47%, Good 40%). Webb improves his vote share with voters from every party, racial group, and region in the district. Should Webb have the funding to compete with Good and introduce himself to voters broadly, he could go even further.
  • Webb’s background appeals to voters across geography and partisanship. Two thirds of voters (67%) including a majority of voters from all age groups, genders, races, regions of the district, and educational backgrounds report they would be motivated to vote for a candidate with Webb’s profile in the general election. Even half of Republicans (48%) and two-thirds of white non-college voters (66%) – groups that have been so challenging for Democrats to win in recent years – say Webb’s profile is motivating, underscoring his broad appeal.

ABOUT THIS RESEARCH
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 500 likely voters with an oversample of 108 additional Black voters in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District between July 30 and August 4, 2020. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.40%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the population of likely general election voters are properly represented.”