UVA COVID-19 Model Weekly Update: “The Unknowns of School Reopening”; Rt “Has Edged Above 1.0 in Populous Northern Virginia”

See below for highlights/key takeaways from today’s UVA COVID-19 model weekly update. 

• “Eight health districts are experiencing surges, a significant reduction as the risk of surges moves from urban Hampton Roads into rural South and Southwest Virginia“
• “The transmission rate remains below 1.0 statewide, but has edged above 1.0 in populous Northern Virginia. Transmission rate estimates have been volatile, however.”
• “The model estimates that Virginia’s cautious approach to reopening prevented 930,449 confirmed cases in Virginia since May 15 compared to a hypothetical scenario where interactions returned to 100% of pre-pandemic levels upon entering the Forward Virginia Plan. With the new modeling approach, the current course predicts a peak the week of September 27th with 11,306 new weekly confirmed cases.”
• “As schools reopen, better information will become available. Anecdotally, the results so far raise concerns.”
• “The UVA modeling team has begun to incorporate the risk of schools reopening into their model, albeit with limited information. Beginning last week, the team included two scenarios with rough, ballpark estimates of the potential impact. One scenario projects a 10% surge in cases beginning on Labor Day, while the other projects a 20% surge. Early evidence suggests these estimates may not be far off. Preliminary analysis indicate that Georgia counties that reopened K-12 schools fully in early August saw an initial 10% increase in transmission rates.”
• ” It will take some time to fully understand the effectiveness of classroom mitigation strategies, and the impacts of schools reopening on the spread of COVID-19. However, if we all do our part, we can minimize these risks, and maximize classroom time for Virginia’s students.”