Final Wason Center poll of the 2020 cycle is out, and it’s…great news for Biden/Harris and for Sen. Mark Warner! 🙂 See below for the highlights, including:
- Biden/Harris lead Trump/Pence by 12 points (53%-41%) among likely voters. This is up from a 5-point lead back in late September, which seemed too low at the time (although Biden was up 8 points among the “most enthusiastic likely voters”).
- With just a week left, this lead is very unlikely to change much, given that “[v]ery few voters remain undecided (4%), with many voters having already cast their ballots in-person or by mail.”
- “Biden’s lead among Virginia voters is partially built from a large gender gap. Women support Biden over Trump 60%-38%, while men, usually Republican-leaning, are
closely split at 46%-45%. In 2016 Trump’s support among men in Virginia was 52% to Hillary Clinton’s 43%. Biden’s lead also stems from very strong support in the traditional Democratic coalition of Black voters (90%-9%) and college-educated voters (60%-35%), while among voting groups that tend to support Republicans, Trump shows only a small advantage among non-college educated voters (48% to 46%) and trails Biden among voters 45 and older (54%-42%). Both hold their partisan base, with 90% of Republicans supporting Trump and 93% of Democrats supporting Biden.”
- Sen. Mark Warner leads even bigger than Biden/Harris, with a 20-point lead (57%-37%) over Republican nominee Daniel Gade, who clearly has gained no traction in this race.
- Finally, the one piece of not-great news is that Amendment 1 seems to be cruising to victory, with a 30-point lead (54%-24%) and support “across every voting group.” As the Wason Center memo notes, “Democratic voters strongly support the measure (66%) while Republicans are closer on the issue (48% support, 31% oppose, 21% are undecided). This represents a disconnect between party leadership and their voters, as the Virginia Democratic Party opposes the measure, while the state Republican Party supports it”
By the way, Virginia in 2016 was about 3 points “bluer” than the country as a whole. If that relationship holds this time, it implies that Biden/Harris will win the country next Tuesday by about 9 points. We’ll see in a few days…