Home 2020 Elections New Virginia Poll: Biden +5 Among Likely Voters, +8 Among “Most Enthusiastic...

New Virginia Poll: Biden +5 Among Likely Voters, +8 Among “Most Enthusiastic Likely Voters”; Warner +13 Among Likely Voters

Also, support for Amendment 1 is at just 48%, down sharply from 72% at the start of 2020.


To date, polls of Virginia this cycle have indicated big leads for Joe Biden and Mark Warner, with a recent VCU poll finding “Democrats Joe Biden and Mark Warner…ahead of their opponents by double-digit margins” – Biden by 14 points (53%-39%) and Warner by 17 points (55%-38%).” And, according to The Economist model, it’s looking good both for president (predicted Biden 55.2%-Trump 44.8%) and US Senate (predicted Mark Warner 59%-Daniel Gade 41%). With that background, here are the results from a new Wason Center poll out this morning, with my thoughts after each bullet point in bold and blue.

  • “Democrat Joe Biden leads Republican Donald Trump by 5 points, 48%-43%, among likely Virginia voters. Among the most enthusiastic likely voters, Biden’s lead grows to 8 points, 51%-43%.” (Given all the other polling, and that Democrats are super-enthusiastic, I think 8 points makes the most sense here. Also, 5 points doesn’t seem right, given that Virginia’s only gotten “bluer” since 2016, when Clinton won the state by 5 points.)
  • “In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Daniel Gade by 13 points among likely Virginia voters, 52%-39%. Warner’s lead drops to 11 points among the most enthusiastic likely voters, 52%-41%.” (Sure, somewhere in the 11-13 point range is possible, although I’m guessing Warner will win by a bigger margin than that.)
  • “Biden’s lead over Trump is built on a 6-point enthusiasm advantage among Democratic voters over Republican voters. Biden also has a 27-point advantage over Trump among women in the most enthusiastic voters, and holds Trump to a draw among voters 45 and older.” (As previously noted, Dems are fired up; also, not surprisingly, a big “gender gap”)
  • “Voters strongly support the proposed constitutional amendment to establish a redistricting commission, 48%-28%, with support across all demographic groups. Despite opposition by the state Democratic Party, 64% of likely Democratic voters support the amendment. Republicans oppose it, 42%-32%.” (This is not at all what I expected, which would have been Republicans overwhelmingly supporting the amendment and Dems more evenly split. Also, just 48% support the amendment? That’s wayyyy down from 72% support at the start of 2020 and 65% support in April. The more people learn about this thing, the less they like it?)
  • “Voters strongly disapprove of the direction of the country is heading, 76%-16%, with 56% disapproving of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. While 47% disapprove of the direction the Commonwealth is going, Governor Ralph
    Northam’s approval rating is steady at 53%.” (Nothing surprising here, except that with a pathetic 56% disapproval rating, I’d expect that Trump would lose Virginia by around 12 points or so, not the 5-8 points this latest poll is claiming.)


There's no paywall on Blue Virginia, and we definitely want to keep it that way! If you want to help support our work, you can donate here - thanks! Also, you can sign up for our weekly email list here.