To date, polls of Virginia this cycle have indicated big leads for Joe Biden and Mark Warner, with a recent VCU poll finding “Democrats Joe Biden and Mark Warner…ahead of their opponents by double-digit margins” – Biden by 14 points (53%-39%) and Warner by 17 points (55%-38%).” And, according to The Economist model, it’s looking good both for president (predicted Biden 55.2%-Trump 44.8%) and US Senate (predicted Mark Warner 59%-Daniel Gade 41%). With that background, here are the results from a new Wason Center poll out this morning, with my thoughts after each bullet point in bold and blue.
- “Democrat Joe Biden leads Republican Donald Trump by 5 points, 48%-43%, among likely Virginia voters. Among the most enthusiastic likely voters, Biden’s lead grows to 8 points, 51%-43%.” (Given all the other polling, and that Democrats are super-enthusiastic, I think 8 points makes the most sense here. Also, 5 points doesn’t seem right, given that Virginia’s only gotten “bluer” since 2016, when Clinton won the state by 5 points.)
- “In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Daniel Gade by 13 points among likely Virginia voters, 52%-39%. Warner’s lead drops to 11 points among the most enthusiastic likely voters, 52%-41%.” (Sure, somewhere in the 11-13 point range is possible, although I’m guessing Warner will win by a bigger margin than that.)
- “Biden’s lead over Trump is built on a 6-point enthusiasm advantage among Democratic voters over Republican voters. Biden also has a 27-point advantage over Trump among women in the most enthusiastic voters, and holds Trump to a draw among voters 45 and older.” (As previously noted, Dems are fired up; also, not surprisingly, a big “gender gap”)
- “Voters strongly support the proposed constitutional amendment to establish a redistricting commission, 48%-28%, with support across all demographic groups. Despite opposition by the state Democratic Party, 64% of likely Democratic voters support the amendment. Republicans oppose it, 42%-32%.” (This is not at all what I expected, which would have been Republicans overwhelmingly supporting the amendment and Dems more evenly split. Also, just 48% support the amendment? That’s wayyyy down from 72% support at the start of 2020 and 65% support in April. The more people learn about this thing, the less they like it?)
- “Voters strongly disapprove of the direction of the country is heading, 76%-16%, with 56% disapproving of the job Donald Trump is doing as president. While 47% disapprove of the direction the Commonwealth is going, Governor Ralph
Northam’s approval rating is steady at 53%.” (Nothing surprising here, except that with a pathetic 56% disapproval rating, I’d expect that Trump would lose Virginia by around 12 points or so, not the 5-8 points this latest poll is claiming.)